ANALYSIS: Will Ukraine's president run again? (05/30/04)

ANALYSIS

Will Ukraine's president run again?

by Roman Kupchinsky
RFE/RL Newsline

Despite recent statements by President Leonid Kuchma suggesting that he has no intention of running for a third term as Ukraine's president in the October 31 election, signs are emerging that this might not be the case.

On May 14, Interfax-Ukraine reported that Mr. Kuchma ordered Vasyl Baziv, deputy head of his administration, to hold weekly press briefings about the president's activities. Such meetings had been halted in late 2000. "Lately the political situation in the state has become tense," Mr. Baziv told the media, according to Interfax. "We're on the eve of the election campaign and during the election campaign informing the public must be more intense than under 'peaceful' conditions."

Others believe the resumption of weekly briefings is meant to grant the president more pre-election exposure than he already receives.

Mr. Baziv's reference to a "tense" situation in the country presumably pertains to events surrounding a local election in March in j20the city of Mukachiv, where thugs threatened voters, destroyed property, and allegedly falsified voting records.

Eyewitness reports by election observers subsequently claimed that the goons had been hired by the Social Democratic Party-United (SDPU) to ensure the victory of its mayoral candidate. The SDPU party has been a firm backer of President Kuchma, and some believe the disturbances in Mukachiv were sanctioned by the presidential administration.

When Procurator General Hennadii Vasyliev was asked by Parliament to investigate the incident, he concluded that nothing improper had occurred - implying at the same time that it might have been the opposition that tried to falsify voting records in Mukachiv.

A second indication that President Kuchma might run for a new term is the more recent scandal involving the criminal past of presidential hopeful Viktor Yanukovych, the current prime minister. As a young man, Mr. Yanukovych was twice sentenced to short prison terms for assault. These facts were already a matter of public record when Mr. Yanukovych was nominated as prime minister, but they resurfaced in conjunction with the announcement that he was the presumed "presidential candidate of the parliamentary majority."

Some opposition leaders have questioned the wisdom of promoting a former convict as president.

What is more intriguing is that some media in Ukraine have given this charge such wide coverage. Some observers point out that - had it wanted to prevent this type of damaging debate about its "candidate" - the presidential administration could have easily prevented the media from doing so. Yet it did the opposite, effectively giving the charges wider publicity.

A third indication of Mr. Kuchma's aspirations for a new term is that many leading members of the presidential majority in the Verkhovna Rada have distanced themselves from Mr. Yanukovych's selection as their candidate, also suggesting that they were not overjoyed by the choice. The matter will be decided at a majority caucus in June, an event that promises a few surprises.

A likely scenario, according to some opposition leaders, would see a parliamentary majority publicly imploring President Kuchma to run again in order to "protect" the country's international prestige from a Yanukovych presidency.

Mr. Kuchma secured the legal right to campaign for a third term when the Constitutional Court of Ukraine ruled that he was in fact serving only his first term, since he was first elected to the presidency prior to the adoption in 1996 of the country's current constitution.

Roman Kupchinsky, a Prague-based analyst, is a contributor to RFE/RL Newsline.

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