ANALYSIS: Oligarchic parties back Yanukovych (08/08/04)

ANALYSIS

Oligarchic parties back Yanukovych

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Belarus and Ukraine Report

Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych was proposed as a joint presidential candidate of the pro-government majority in the Verkhovna Rada in mid-April, shortly after this majority failed to pass a constitutional-reform bill intended to limit the prerogatives of the president and expand those of the prime minister and the legislature.

At that time, the appointment of Mr. Yanukovych as the main challenger of Our Ukraine leader Mr. Yanukovych in the October 31 election was primarily seen as a propaganda move on the part of pro-government parties. Following the abortive vote on the constitutional-reform bill, the pro-government majority was in visible disarray and urgently needed to reassure both itself and its electorate that it still possessed political initiative.

The moment of truth for Mr. Yanukovych occurred when most parties constituting the pro-government coalition held their congresses in order to confirm or reject his candidacy. Apart from the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, which proposed its leader Anatolii Kinakh, prime minister from March 2001 to November 2002, as a presidential hopeful, all the other parties threw their support behind Mr. Yanukovych.

Simultaneously, these congresses significantly reduced the probability that incumbent President Leonid Kuchma will run for the post of president for a third time, an option made possible for him by a ruling of the Constitutional Court in December 2003.

Perhaps the most crucial of these forums was a congress of the Social Democratic Party - United (SDPU) in Kharkiv on July 10. The SDPU is led by presidential-administration chief Viktor Medvedchuk, so the party's decision on Mr. Yanukovych was expected as an important indicator of President Kuchma's real intentions in the 2004 presidential campaign. Mr. Medvedchuk told the congress that power in Ukraine should remain in the hands of "centrist forces" and stressed that Mr. Yanukovych is the only candidate of these forces who can win the presidential election. Five hundred delegates to the congress unanimously endorsed Mr. Yanukovych's candidacy.

Mr. Medvedchuk also told the delegates that the most important political task in Ukraine is to implement constitutional reform in order to introduce a "parliamentary-presidential model" of government. He stressed that Prime Minister Yanukovych is a staunch supporter of such reform, which was initiated by the SDPU in collaboration with the Socialist Party and the Communist Party.

Curiously enough, Mr. Yanukovych's election manifesto published this week does not highlight the urgent need for constitutional reform but mentions it almost casually, in the same line with judicial, administrative and military reforms. Irrespective of what happens with the constitutional reform in the future, one has to admit that it was a tremendously clever idea on the part of Mr. Medvedchuk in particular and the pro-Kuchma camp in general. This idea has driven a big wedge between Our Ukraine and the Socialist Party and, to a large extent, prevented them from striking an election coalition deal.

For Viktor Yushchenko, the most disappointing recent event was apparently a congress of the National Democratic Party (NDP), which is led by former Prime Minister Valerii Pustovoitenko. Mr. Pustovoitenko, prime minister from July 1997 to December 1999, signaled earlier this year that he does not like Mr. Yanukovych as a joint presidential candidate of the pro-government camp and may run himself. However, the NDP congress on July 10 cast its support behind Mr. Yanukovych.

The NDP congress was attended by Viktor Pynzenyk, one of the leaders of Our Ukraine. Mr. Pynzenyk ardently but unsuccessfully appealed to the congress to back Mr. Yushchenko's presidential bid, arguing that the NDP and Our Ukraine are pursuing the same political goals. Mr. Pustovoitenko was rewarded for his backing of Mr. Yanukovych with the post of coordinator of the bloc called "Together for the Sake of Future," which is intended to be a wider coalition of political parties and other organizations supporting Mr. Yanukovych in the election campaign.

Mr. Yanukovych's presidential bid was also backed by two other oligarchic parties - the Popular Agrarian Party headed by Verkhovna Rada Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn and the Labor Ukraine Party led by National Bank of Ukraine Chairman Serhii Tyhypko. Mr. Tyhypko became chief of Mr. Yanukovych's election staff.

Thus, all major oligarchs of the pro-Kuchma camp, in the face of the "Yushchenko threat," have united behind Mr. Yanukovych's presidential bid, even if, from their point of view, he does not seem to be the most suitable candidate for the presidential job. Mr. Yanukovych is the leader of the Donetsk-based Party of Regions and the Donetsk-based oligarchic clan. Some fear that his possible victory in the presidential election may considerably upset the current "oligarchic balance" in Ukraine, which is ensured by President Kuchma, and redistribute political and economic clout in favor of one regional oligarchic group.

All surveys in Ukraine indicate that Mr. Yushchenko is backed by some 23 to 25 percent and Mr. Yanukovych by some 16 to 18 percent of the electorate. This proportion will most likely change in the course of the election campaign, but almost all observers agree that there will be a second election round on November 21, three weeks after the October 31 ballot, and that Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych are the most probable contenders in that round. Thus, it could turn out that these three weeks in November will become one of the most fateful periods in Ukraine's modern history.

Given that Mr. Yanukovych's candidacy will be supported not only by the state-administration machine but also by the united political, financial and media potential of most Ukrainian oligarchs, Mr. Yushchenko's chances to win the election do not look very good. Mr. Yushchenko will hardly mobilize the financial and propagandistic potential that could match Mr. Yanukovych's campaign resources. But there is still time for Mr. Yushchenko to prevent his election chances from becoming slim.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus and Ukraine specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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