ANALYSIS: European Union shrugs off Kuchma's strategic maneuverings (08/08/04)

ANALYSIS

European Union shrugs off Kuchma's strategic maneuverings

by Ahto Lobjakas
RFE/RL Belarus and Ukraine Report

The European Union has reacted coolly to reports that Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma has removed membership in the European Union and NATO as strategic aims in his country's defense doctrine.

Ukraine has long pursued the idea of membership in the bloc, but with no luck. President Kuchma recently declined to sign an "action plan" to map out Kyiv's participation in the EU's European Neighborhood Policy, saying it offers nothing new to his country.

Mr. Kuchma's apparent decision to give up EU and NATO membership as strategic objectives is seen as another reaction to cold-shouldering by Brussels.

Commenting on relations with both Ukraine and Russia, the chief spokesman for the European Commission, Reijo Kemppinen, said on July 27 that the EU seeks closer ties, but is not offering membership.

"Insofar as our relationship with Ukraine and Russia is concerned, we have good and close relations with both countries, and we hope they will be even closer in the future. Membership in the European Union has never been in the offing for either of those countries, nor has it formally been discussed as a prospect," Mr. Kemppinen said.

President Kuchma's decree replacing EU and NATO membership in Ukraine's defense doctrine with the more vague aim of "Euro-Atlantic integration" was posted on the Ukrainian government's website on July 26. The decree substitutes a new goal of "deepening" Kyiv's relations with the blocs for its earlier goal of "joining" them.

Oleh Shamshur is Ukraine's vice minister for foreign affairs. "This amendment [to Ukraine's defense doctrine] was made because neither NATO nor the EU at this moment are ready to give a clear signal about the timeframe [for Ukraine's entry into NATO]," Mr. Shamshur said.

But Mr. Shamshur stated that Kyiv has not radically changed course: "We do not see any reasons for claims that Ukraine has changed its European and Euro-Atlantic course, since the ultimate goal of European integration has not changed, is not changing, and I don't think it will change. The key word about European integration is still there [in the defense doctrine]."

Mr. Kuchma's decree coincides with a visit to Kyiv by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mr. Putin used a speech on July 26 to warn foreign "agents" not to work against the integration of Russia and Ukraine.

Observers in Brussels note Mr. Kuchma has long tried to play off Russia against the EU. Last year the EU sharply criticized Ukraine's moves toward setting up a free-trade zone with Russia and Kazakstan, among others. EU officials then said the free-trade zone could compromise Ukraine's future ties with the bloc.

Officials in Brussels now indicate this should be read as the EU limiting its offer to Ukraine to joining the bloc's neighborhood policy.

Emma Udwin, an external relations spokeswoman at the European Commission, said the offer could add a "great deal" to existing relations. She also made clear Ukraine is not seen as a case deserving special treatment.

"We are currently pursuing links with Ukraine through our neighborhood policy - through the European Neighborhood Policy - which is a policy that closes no doors but which concentrates on the current situation, which is that Ukraine is one of our neighbors - post-enlargement - and which offers a great deal to any one of our neighbors that wishes to take up the offer and work with us," Ms. Udwin said.

Ms. Udwin stressed that "there are plenty of things that can be offered outside of [EU] membership."

Speaking privately, one EU diplomat noted the bloc sees significant shortfalls in the use Ukraine has made of its current Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the bloc. Therefore, Kyiv's desire for closer ties - perhaps an association agreement, which is generally seen as a precursor to membership - is seen as unwarranted.

The European Neighborhood Policy offers EU neighbors a chance to integrate their markets so that they can eventually fully benefit from the bloc's four core freedoms - the free movement of goods, capital, services and people. Only political decision-making would remain a closed-off area for the neighbors.

Officials in Brussels attribute the EU's relative coolness toward Kyiv largely to the questionable democratic and human rights record of the Kuchma administration. One source underscored that the European Union is "more interested in what countries do than what they say."

Ahto Lobjakas is an RFE/RL correspondent.

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