ROUGH DRAFT: The Chestnut Revolution (08/15/04)

ROUGH DRAFT

by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau

The Chestnut Revolution

Some are calling it the coming Chestnut Revolution. These observers envision a scenario developing in which a non-violent uprising could occur in Kyiv on the evening of October 31 with the goal of toppling a regime bent on retaining power through fraudulent means. They make comparisons to Georgia's recent Rose Revolution, which brought Mikhail Shakashvili to power, and the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia, which toppled the Communist regime in Prague in 1989.

However, the person who should ostensibly carry the torch that would fire up the nation has said it is not appropriate to compare the situation in Ukraine with what prompted these successful non-violent social uprisings. Presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko has said he is proceeding on the belief that he will become the country's next president through a democratic election - and not by some other means.

Those skeptical that the scenario for a Chestnut Revolution could develop accuse those predicting social upheaval and mass protest if Viktor Yushchenko does not win the presidential elections of tilting at windmills or at least smoking funny "makhorka."

The scenario that could lead to a social uprising looks like this: The last month of the presidential campaign is marked by accusations and allegations that the forces of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych are flagrantly pressuring students, government workers and pensioners to support his candidacy, while the campaign supporters of his main opponent, Mr. Yushchenko, complain of widespread harassment by law enforcement officials, blocked access to public forums for their candidate and a press blackout.

Nevertheless, Mr. Yushchenko maintains a comfortable lead over the prime minister in the most respected and trusted opinion polls as the last surveys are taken two weeks before Election Day.

On Election Day, after the polls close, exit polling shows that Mr. Yushchenko should see a comfortable victory once the vote is officially counted. As more than 100,000 jubilant Yushchenko supporters fill Lesia Ukrainka Square before the building that houses the Central Election Commission to await the official announcement, beads of sweat begin to appear on the faces of some CEC members as they realize that the vote tallies arriving electronically from the election districts show a result contrary to what the crowds outside are anticipating. All have the same concern: how to break the news to the press in the room next door that Mr. Yanukovych will be the next Ukrainian president. And, they wonder, what should we expect from the crowd waiting outside?

Today it is unrealistic - some would say simply crazy - to believe that even a million Ukrainians, angered by a fraudulent vote count and a rigged election, could rise up in violent or non-violent protest to the degree necessary to affect change. Many here doubt that even 100,000 Ukrainians could be gathered for a political forum. The prevailing belief is that too many people here still are controlled by a Soviet-instilled fear of authority and skeptical about the effectiveness of public protest, and few would be ready to go to extremes to make sure that justice is served. After all, staged elections were routine for more than 70 years, so what could be new in this instance?

More recent events substantiate this doubt. When barely 20,000 people could be counted on to show up at several protests between 2001 and 2003 to oust the ruling political leadership after it was accused of complicity in the death of journalist Heorhii Gongadze, why should one suddenly expect such a grass-roots uprising this time?

Those who doubt that anything like what happened in Georgia could develop in Ukraine also note that Kyiv authorities would not allow uncontrolled throngs to enter the city, even if the passive Ukrainian nation could be spurred to protest on a mass scale. They argue that the militia has far too much power and would effectively prevent such a scenario from developing.

They note that earlier this year local law enforcement officials in Sumy and Donetsk, in carrying out political orders, effectively hampered and to a lesser degree controlled the ingress of busloads of Yushchenko supporters who had traveled to rallies held there. They outrightly blocked entry to the respective cities for some buses, allegedly blowing out the tires of others.

Those awaiting the grand Chestnut Revolution in Kyiv refer to the overthrow of the regime of Georgia's President Eduard Shevardnadze as the precedent upon which they build their case. They note that nobody there would have placed a bet on a quick and bloodless ouster of the Georgian president, who also ruled with a strong hand.

They argue that the foundation for their scenario exists. They point to the fact that some 50,000 Yushchenko supporters found it important enough to express their support for their candidate when they gathered on Spivoche Pole in Kyiv on July 3 to give his campaign for the presidency a proper send-off. It was by far the largest gathering for a political event in Kyiv in recent memory.

While the Ukrainian and international press did not give the Yushchenko forces their due for an impressive display of national support on that first day of electioneering, it was, nonetheless, solid proof that real people with real problems with the current leadership stood behind Mr. Yushchenko - that his is not a campaign sustained by public relations experts and spin.

But lest we get carried away with conspiracy theories, it is important to note that the person at the center of all this talk has not lent his support to the idea of a Chestnut Revolution - which, by the way, gets its name from the many chestnut trees that grace Kyiv. In an interview in UNIAN published on July 29, Mr. Yushchenko rejected any alternatives other than an electorally supported democratic win on October 31. Yet, he did not categorically reject the possibility that the masses would make sure their voice was heard in one way or another.

"I do not think it possible or necessary to compare the situation in Ukraine with the situation in Georgia, or Poland, or any other country. We will not blindly follow somebody else's example," explained Mr. Yushchenko. "I am convinced, however, that if the elections are not honest and transparent, the people will not remain silent, considering the unprecedented level of distrust toward the government."

Today, Mr. Yushchenko retains a comfortable 8 percent to 10 percent lead over Mr. Yanukovych in most surveys. Both candidates are in full campaign mode, freely and peacefully traveling around the country with campaign stops in small villages and towns, as well as large cities. It even looks as if the two Viktors will meet for at least one television debate before October 31. There have been few reported instances of outright use of administrative resources, although some local officials are already stating that they are being pressured to make sure that majorities in their municipalities and raions turn out in support of Mr. Yanukovych.

Thus far, there is no substantial basis to believe that a Chestnut Revolution scenario is developing. However there are nearly 90 potentially sizzling campaign days before October 31, and we all know that chestnuts roast nicely on an open fire.

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