EDITORIAL: Ukraine's 13th anniversary (08/22/04)

EDITORIAL

Ukraine's 13th anniversary

The number 13 has always been a troublesome number. Buildings avoid a 13th floor. Airplanes avoid a 13th aisle. There are people who do not like going out on Friday the 13th, or expect that it will be a bad day for them.

Anybody who suffers from tridecaphobia - the fear of number 13 - must have certain reservations and trepidations about Ukraine's uncertain future on this, Ukraine's 13th anniversary of independence, which will be celebrated on August 24. Now don't misunderstand us, we only wish the country well as it turns 13 years old and enters what is considered the adolescent years in an adult lifetime.

But we have concerns, nonetheless. Perhaps it is the age at which Ukraine finds itself that can explain the stark turnabout that has marked the last year: Ukraine is now entering the rebellious teenage years. For how else can one explain why state authorities quietly and without pretense recently decided to change Ukraine's defense doctrine and strike any reference to future membership in NATO and the European Union as expressed goals? What other reason better explains why the country decided to formally declare its readiness to de facto forsake membership in an established European economic alliance in favor of a nondescript Eurasian Single Economic Space?

There is also the matter of the game of ping-pong it has played in the last year with the Odesa-Brody oil transport route, culminating this past week in a 15-year oil and gas transport agreement with Russia. Whatever happened to the great significance of the Caspian Basin and the vast deposits of crude found within?

Indeed, as Ukraine enters its teenage years, the country is flexing its newly discovered economic muscles and beginning to feel all grown up even as the blemishes keep popping out. It is going to be a big year for this growing child. International democratic forces are telling Ukraine that the presidential elections that begin on October 31 will define the extent to which the country has moved along the road to true democracy.

The U.S. in particular has sent a very strong message, delivered by some of its most respected statesmen, who have traveled to Ukraine recently, among them former President George Bush, current Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, several prominent senators, including John McCain and well-known diplomats Madeleine Albright, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Richard Holbrook. They have stated what Sen. McCain repeated again this past week: Ukraine must hold free and fair elections.

Ukraine, it seems, is not listening very closely. Mr. McCain blatantly told Ukrainian authorities that Washington had already noted campaign abuses and the lack of equal candidate access to the press, supported by reports from the mass media and international human rights groups. He said Ukraine could face everything from a reduction in the flow of international aid and foreign investment to outright sanctions, should international bodies determine that elections were rigged.

His colleague, Senator John Sununu said Ukraine could be excluded from membership in the World Trade Organization. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych has said WTO membership is but a matter of time for Ukraine and perhaps so, but it could take a long time unless the current state leadership stops using illegal administrative resources and begins playing by the rules.

Nonetheless, those observing the transformations occurring within Ukraine must practice patience and restraint, to allow the country to find its place in the global economy. For while we criticize Kyiv for not moving Westward more earnestly, we must realize that one cannot go where one is not wanted. Until the European club of countries expresses a desire to include Ukraine, Kyiv must find partners where it can, which currently means Russia and the Eurasian common market.

A country at 13, like an adolescent child, should have sufficient experience and internal development to receive trust. One has to believe Ukraine's leadership - one that has been in place for a decade - when it states that it has done and will do nothing that will compromise Ukrainian sovereignty and independence. Yet, we must continue to watch and to comment to make sure that elections are democratic and free of intimidation, with a level playing field for all candidates.

Psychologists who track tridecaphobia maintain that some of the fear of the number 13 is based on attitudes that lend to situations in which the negative associations become self-fulfilling, bad karma, if you wish. So we will remain expressly optimistic about Ukraine and its future. We believe that by this time next year we will be congratulating the country on holding free and fair presidential elections, on its continued dynamic economic growth, and on newly obtained membership in all sorts of international organizations, including the WTO!

Happy 13th, Ukraine!

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