ANALYSIS: Ukrainian president argues that country should maintain its course (09/05/04)

ANALYSIS

Ukrainian president argues that country should maintain its course

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma delivered an important speech at a gala meeting in Kyiv on August 23, on the eve of the 13th anniversary of Ukraine's independence. Taking into account that Ukraine is expected to see a new president in the next three months, this was probably the last major occasion for the incumbent to sum up the decade of his rule. Mr. Kuchma took full advantage of this opportunity to highlight what he considers to be the most important achievements of his two-term presidency. Simultaneously, he made a sort of political bequest, speculating on how "Ukraine without Kuchma" should develop over the next 10 years.

President Kuchma stressed at the beginning of his speech that, after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine's historic challenge was the "most unique" among all post-Soviet and Eastern European countries. According to him, Ukraine's transformations in the early years of independence resembled a "wandering in the wilderness." Consequently, Mr. Kuchma credited himself with originating the determined course, after his first election in 1994, to build Ukrainian statehood, introduce a market economy, form a democratic civil society and make the Ukrainians a "self-contained political nation."

Mr. Kuchma noted that Ukraine will need a "few decades more" to reach these four ambitious goals. Therefore, he called on his successor to continue the same political course. "The length of the process of Ukraine's transformation objectively requires that we ensure continuity in the political course," the president said. "The next decade must be - and I am convinced that it will be - a continuation and not a change, not a rejection of the decade that is ending. I repeat, not a rejection and not a change, but a continuation."

It is no secret that Mr. Kuchma sees such a continuation in a Viktor Yanukovych presidency, rather than in that of opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko or any other hopeful challenging Prime Minister Yanukovych's presidential bid. Indeed, Mr. Kuchma denigrated the Ukrainian opposition in his speech as "political Pygmies," jeering that it is striving to come to power under the "Ukraine Without Kuchma" slogan, which was adopted by the opposition for a string of anti-Kuchma rallies in 2000-2002. "They expose themselves to ridicule, as a minimum because the incumbent president is not participating in the elections," Mr. Kuchma said. "But I can assure all of my compatriots on one point: there will never be Kuchma without Ukraine."

As on many earlier occasions, Mr. Kuchma credited himself with laying a basis for Ukraine's European integration. "Europe-ization has already become a national idea [in Ukraine]," he emphasized. He upbraided the EU for proposing the European Neighborhood Policy rather than associate membership for Ukraine. "The status of a geographical neighbor of unified Europe - which is persistently proposed to us by some Europeans - contradicts our interests," Mr. Kuchma said. "I am deeply convinced that the development of our relations under the principles of association [with the EU] will meet both Ukrainian and EU interests."

In this European context, Mr. Kuchma defended his policy of developing a strategic partnership with Russia. "The stable relations with our strategic partner Russia, which are built on friendly, partner-like principles, are not a minus in our relations with Europe, as we are reproached by our opposition from the right wing, but a fat plus, and its real meaning - I am convinced - will soon be realized by politicians not only in Kyiv, but also in Brussels and Washington," Mr. Kuchma said.

Traditionally, Mr. Kuchma has praised his government for achieving and maintaining impressive economic growth. He said the country's GDP increased by 13.5 percent in the first seven months of 2004 compared with the same period in 2003, which entailed a 15 percent increase in the real incomes of the population. According to Mr. Kuchma, the average monthly wage in Ukraine stands now at 600 hrv ($113) versus 181 hrv in 2000, while the average monthly pension is equal to 220 hrv (66 hrv in 2000).

Many, if not all, of Mr. Kuchma's self-gratulatory assertions in his August 23 address have been or are being questioned by the Ukrainian opposition and independent Ukrainian observers, as well as ordinary Ukrainians.

As regards the country's economic boom, it is necessary to mention here the opinion of Mr. Yushchenko, former prime minister and former chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine. According to Mr. Yushchenko, the 13.5 percent growth in 2004 has not translated into rising living standards in Ukraine - during the first seven months budget revenues rose only by 1.8 percent. Mr. Yushchenko admits that Ukrainians are now experiencing some improvement in their financial situation, but adds that this has been achieved primarily owing to the 2003 budget's "hidden revenues" that are now being spent by the government as a "bribe" to voters for their support for Mr. Yanukovych's presidential bid.

Mr. Yushchenko also questions President Kuchma's claim that Ukraine has already laid a basis for a viable democratic system. "The choice facing voters this fall is very clear," Mr. Yushchenko wrote in the international edition of The Wall Street Journal on August 24. "On the one hand, my vision for Ukraine proposes a system founded on democratic European values, which will enable each citizen to realize their socio-economic potential in a country governed by the rule of law. On the other hand, those from the ruling regime propose preserving the current autocracy, which rules over competing financial-industrial groups. Their corrupt government bureaucrats implement unpopular policies with no respect for individual liberties and basic human rights."

Moreover, a recent poll by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies found that nearly half of Ukrainians - 48.7 percent - believe that their country is not independent, while only 38.1 percent think it is otherwise. Further casting doubts on Mr. Kuchma's picture of Ukraine under his rule, 50 percent of respondents said the country's level of economic development has declined since 1991. An even larger number of respondents, 61.5 percent, admitted that living standards in Ukraine have worsened during the 13 years of independence.

In other words, a majority of Ukrainians may not desire the political continuity President Kuchma spoke of in his Independence Day speech. But it is anybody's guess whether they will identify Mr. Yanukovych as an agent of such continuity and Mr. Yushchenko as a new, better start for Ukraine on October 31 when they go to the polls.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus and Ukraine specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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