ANALYSIS: Yushchenko continues to lead in Ukrainian presidential race (09/26/04)

ANALYSIS

Yushchenko continues to lead in Ukrainian presidential race

by Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor

Opinion polls are again at the center of Ukraine's 2004 presidential elections. The gap between Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych continues to remain stable at 5-8 percent (Ukrainska Pravda, September 9). Throughout the year Mr. Yushchenko's ratings have increased from 21 to 30 percent, and Mr. Yanukovych's from 9 to 27 percent.

If the election goes into a second round, Mr. Yushchenko would obtain 40.2 and Mr. Yanukovych 33.2 percent, according to a new Democratic Initiatives-Socis (DI-Socis) poll (Ukrainska Pravda, September 7). This lead would not necessarily ensure outright victory for Mr. Yushchenko, as it is commonly thought that state "administrative resources" could add up to 10 percent to Mr. Yanukovych's final tally.

Polls cited by Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc give a wider lead for Mr. Yuschenko of 35-41 percent in both rounds versus 23-29 percent for Mr. Yanukovych (razom.org.ua, August 18). The Yushchenko election team believes that his true level of support is higher than polls suggest because, "Some today are afraid of saying that they are for Mr. Yushchenko, while others are embarrassed to say they are for Yanukovych" (Ukrainska Pravda, September 9). Opinion polls are often conducted by telephone, but many voters are suspicious as to who is actually asking the question. Voters who work in the state sector have been warned not to vote for Mr. Yushchenko if they want to keep their jobs.

One factor working in Mr. Yushchenko's favor is his status as an underdog. When asked which candidate had been given the best campaigning conditions, 64.3 percent said Mr. Yanukovych and only 4.9 percent for Mr. Yushchenko, according to the DI-Socis poll. This imbalance reflects the fact that only 12.5 percent of Ukrainians actually believe the elections will be held in a free and fair manner.

Acrimony over opinion polls has rested upon whether the gap predicted for a run-off between Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych is growing or narrowing. The Razumkov Center found that the gap had slightly increased from 7.4 to 7.7 percent between June and July (Ukrainska Pravda, August 3). The gap recorded by DI-Socis was higher at 9.3 percent, while the Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology reported a 12 percent gap in round two (Channel 5 television, August 10).

These positive results gave grounds for the opposition to celebrate what they believed was growing support for Mr. Yushchenko. The opposition newspaper Ukraina Moloda (July 26) reported that Mr. Yushchenko's popularity in the second round was now growing five times faster than Prime Minister Yanukovych's.

With that trend, it is understandable that the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) was sharply criticized for reporting that the second-round gap between Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych had actually dropped (Ukrainska Pravda, August 2). KIIS found that Mr. Yushchenko and Mr. Yanukovych would receive 29.9 and 25.2 percent, respectively, in the first round of voting. For the second round the gap between the candidates had fallen to only 2.8 percent, with the candidates receiving 39.3 percent and 36.5 percent, respectively.

Predictably, the Yushchenko and the Yanukovych camps are citing only those polls favorable to their candidate. The pro-Yanukovych media used the KIIS data to argue that Mr. Yanukovych now has only to increase his support by 4 percent to win the elections (temnik.com.ua, August 13).

KIIS sociologist Valery Khmelko believes that there are two explanations for the apparently narrowing gap between the two leading candidates. First, during the summer the government radically increased student grants, pensions and wages in what was widely seen as a populist government move to buy voters. Half of Prime Minister Yanukovych's supporters have rallied to him in the last two months, some because of these populist socioeconomic steps and 35 percent because "He has a big chance of victory" (Ukrainska Pravda, September 1). Many voters, even among Mr. Yushchenko's supporters, do not believe that the authorities will voluntarily give up power, no matter how Ukrainians vote.

Second, summertime polls do not necessarily give an accurate picture, as many people are away on holiday or at their dachas. This group of people, including many educated and independent businessmen, are more likely to vote for Mr. Yushchenko, Mr. Khmelko believes. Polls in September, after the school year began, therefore, show a return to a larger gap between Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych in round 2 (Ukrainska Pravda, September 13).

A large group of swing voters remains: 30 percent of voters are undecided, set on voting against both Mr. Yushchenko and Mr. Yanukovych, or unwilling to vote. While only 17 percent of Ukrainophone voters are undecided or set on voting against both candidates, 28 percent of Russophones are uncommitted (Zerkalo Nedeli, July 24-30).

This imbalance exists because some Communist Party voters do not like either candidate and they are unwilling to vote negatively for Mr. Yanukovych against Mr. Yushchenko in round 2. Dislike for the authorities is far higher than in 1994, when the Communists voted wholeheartedly for challenger Leonid Kuchma against incumbent Leonid Kravchuk in the run-off. This year, Communist candidate and party leader Petro Symonenko cannot openly call for support for Mr. Yanukovych in round 2, for fear that it would damage his party's chances in the March 2006 parliamentary elections.

Unlike the 1994 scenario, Mr. Yushchenko is likely to gain far more of the undecided voters than is Mr. Yanukovych (24 percent as opposed to only 10 percent). This means that the second-round gap between both candidates could favor Mr. Yushchenko to a greater degree than polls currently show.

Taras Kuzio is visiting professor at the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University. The articles above, which originally appeared in The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, are reprinted here with permission from the foundation (www.jamestown.org).

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