ANALYSIS: Russia and state-sponsored terrorism in Ukraine (CONCLUSION) (10/10/04)

ANALYSIS

Russia and state-sponsored terrorism in Ukraine

by Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor

CONCLUSION

As in many post-Communist states, Ukrainian authorities control "loyal nationalist" groups. Paradoxically, although presidential front-runner Viktor Yushchenko is regularly assailed as a "nationalist," his Our Ukraine bloc has only one member that is nationalist: the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists. Yet the recent wave of terrorist attacks has been blamed on Yushchenko followers.

In contrast, the presidential administration headed by Viktor Medvedchuk and the Social Democratic Party-United (SDPU) that he leads control four extreme nationalist groups. These are the Ukrainian National Assembly (UNA), the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists in Ukraine (OUNvU), Rukh for Unity (RukhzY), and Bratstvo (Brotherhood). Dmytro Korchynski, head of Bratstvo, was a commentator on the 1+1 television channel controlled by Mr. Medvedchuk. His "Prote" television show has specialized in attacking Mr. Yushchenko.

Each of these four nationalist groups has provided a presidential candidate who is working on behalf of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych: Mr. Korchynski (Bratstvo), Roman Kozak (OUNvU), Andriy Chornovil (OUNvU), and Bohdan Boiko (RukhzY). These, and 12 other candidates who also work for Mr. Yanukovych, control 60 percent of the election officials who will be crucial should the vote be manipulated in favor of Mr. Yanukovych (cvu.org.ua). These candidates can also use their free airtime on state television to attack Mr. Yushchenko.

The first act of terrorism linked to the current election campaign took place on August 20. Two bombs exploded in Kyiv's Troyeschyna market, killing one and wounding tens of others, leading to large protests by those put out of work (Vecherniye Viesti, August 27-September 2).

One week later, the Internal Ministry (MVS) announced it had arrested five individuals. Two of those arrested were allegedly members of the Ukrainian National Party (a member of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc) and one a producer at Channel TV, a station owned by Our Ukraine businessman Petro Poroshenko. The National Party categorically rejected any connection to the terrorist attack (unp-ua.org, August 29). Our Ukraine bloc deputy head Ihor Hryniv described this attempt at linking Mr. Yushchenko to the bombing as a "planned provocation, a manipulation of [political] technology" (Ukrainska Pravda, August 27). Mr. Hryniv was clearly referring to Russian spin-doctors working for the presidential administration.

The attempt to link Mr. Yushchenko to the terrorist attack was suspicious also because of its timing. The attack occurred only two days before an August 22 statement by the Internal Affairs Ministry, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Procurator General's Office warning the opposition not to attempt to undertake "provocations." The statement also warned that the security forces would repulse any attempt by the opposition to repeat the Georgian revolution and take power by force.

Blaming the terrorist attack on Mr. Yushchenko was disinformation, as those arrested were actually from pro-presidential nationalist groups hostile to Mr. Yushchenko. One of the actual perpetrators is a supporter of the pro-presidential nationalist Mr. Boiko, presidential candidate of the Movement of Ukrainian Patriots, a coalition that includes Rukh for Unity (RukhzY), the party that he leads. A second is a member of the Tryzub (Trident) paramilitary group (also a member of Mr. Boiko's election coalition). Meanwhile, the third was from another pro-presidential nationalist group, the Ukrainian National Assembly, who had previously been a bodyguard to Mr. Korchynskyi (now head of the pro-presidential Bratstvo nationalist group).

The UNAssembly has held various demonstrations in Kyiv with participants dressed in Nazi-like fatigues and declaring their support for Mr. Yushchenko. Mr. Yushchenko has always denied any links to UNAssembly and has called upon the Internal Affairs and Justice ministries to de-register the party.

In mid-September a UNAssembly attempt to hold a rally "in support of Yushchenko" was thwarted when Our Ukraine supporters blocked it and convinced the students paid to attend that it was a charade (razom.org.ua, September 9). UNAssembly vigils "in support of Yushchenko" have been widely broadcast on television channels controlled by Mr. Medvedchuk in order to portray Mr. Yushchenko as an "extremist."

A second terrorist attack took place on September 3 in Kyiv. The target this time was the deputy director of the market hit on August 20. On the same day the Internal Affairs Ministry handed the investigation of the two terrorist attacks over to the SBU, reflecting its political subtext.

These two terrorist attacks have grown out of scenarios planted in Ukraine by Russian political advisors working for the Ukrainian presidential administration (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, September 22). This is not the first time provocations have been staged during a Ukrainian election. In the 1999 Ukrainian presidential elections a terrorist attack was undertaken against Progressive Socialist leader and candidate Natalia Vitrenko. Individuals implicated in that attack blamed it on Socialist leader and candidate Oleksander Moroz, the main threat to President Kuchma's chances of being re-elected. According to the illicit tapes made in Mr. Kuchma's office by presidential security officer Mykola Melnychenko, the attack was organized by the authorities to discredit Mr. Moroz and block his entry into a run-off. Mr. Kuchma duly defeated Communist leader Petro Symonenko in the second round of the voting.

In this year's elections the authorities are using more sophisticated tactics prepared by Russian political strategists close to President Vladimir Putin. The stakes are higher than in the 1999 elections, because Mr. Yushchenko is a far bigger threat to Mr. Yanukovych than was Mr. Moroz to Mr. Kuchma.

Taras Kuzio is visiting professor at the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University. The articles above, which originally appeared in The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, are reprinted here with permission from the foundation (www.jamestown.org).

PART I

CONCLUSION

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