EDITORIAL: On to the run-off (11/07/04)

EDITORIAL

On to the run-off

There is little doubt that the October 31 election for Ukraine's next president was neither free nor fair. Domestic observers and international monitors alike have pretty much come to that conclusion.

There is also good reason to believe that the vote is now being rigged in favor of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the chosen successor to outgoing President Leonid Kuchma. The shameless foot-dragging and manipulation of numbers, the abrupt halt to the counting process by election authorities, the refusal to include in the current tally the Kyiv count, which went overwhelmingly for Viktor Yushchenko, and the continued delay in publicizing the final count could lead only to such an assessment.

What happened on election day and continued in the days that followed was not a complete surprise to those who followed the pre-election campaign. Most people, however, had hoped against hope that the country would nonetheless have a democratic election. We, along with them, were wrong. This presidential election has been a sorry and sordid affair - one that no one would have believed would develop as it did, even as most would have agreed it would be dirty.

Mr. Kuchma was indeed right, it was a gruesome battle waged at all costs, including nearly the life of Mr. Yushchenko. What is not quite clear is how much of a hand the Kuchma administration had in developing or approving the violence, the smear tactics and the cold-blooded strategies that were used.

In the end, those who sought to steal this election have failed, at least for the moment. They did not foresee that the electorate would turn out to vote in larger than expected numbers. They didn't expect that 100,000 people would have the courage to come to a Yushchenko rally a week before election day and make hay of the effort to paint him as a marginal, extremist candidate. It was perhaps at that rally that Mr. Yushchenko became the "people's candidate," as his campaign manager has asserted.

They did not expect that the orange banner with the simple inscription "Tak" would become a national symbol.

Finally, and most importantly, they could not have expected that even after they had manipulated all they could, the results would show that their candidate was no better than tied with his main opponent and more likely than not trailing him.

Who would have predicted a week ago that Kyiv would go for Mr. Yushchenko by 63 percent, or that Sumy would end up in the Yushchenko camp? These oblasts had "belonged" to President Kuchma, inasmuch as they had supported him in both previous elections and it seemed should have stayed with his appointed successor.

The people power that Mr. Yushchenko has attempted to galvanize - thus far successfully - may be a most enlightening moment in this black chapter in Ukraine's current history, but only if Mr. Yushchenko pushes successfully to a final victory.

In order to do so, the candidate of the people must do two things. First, he must step back from the battle lines and the barricades, and begin to address his opponent in a different manner. He needs to stop utilizing tactics that continue to make him look embattled and vengeful. Determining who led the unprincipled and amoral campaign against Mr. Yushchenko for now is much less important than beginning to give the appearance that his Power of the People campaign is unstoppable, that it is moving relentlessly forward toward victory. He could begin by talking of reconciliation within Ukraine. He could address the pro-Yanukovych forces to advise them that he expects the transfer of power after the elections to proceed peacefully and in keeping with recognized norms of democratic succession.

Second, and most importantly, he needs to make a concerted effort to find common ground with Socialist Party leader Oleksander Moroz, who received nearly 6 percent of the electoral vote on election day. Mr. Moroz has said he would consider endorsing Mr. Yushchenko should the presidential candidate agree to three of his campaign platforms.

While it would be foolhardy to agree outright to Mr. Moroz's demand that political reform occur in Ukraine immediately to reduce the scope and power of the presidency, it would be in everyone's interest for Mr. Yushchenko to stipulate, perhaps even in writing, that the details of such reform need to be worked out carefully if they are to be applied after the 2006 Verkhovna Rada elections. The other two demands would not be problematic for Mr. Yushchenko, inasmuch as he had previously expressed support for a continued moratorium on the sale of land, as well as the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Iraq.

With Mr. Moroz's support, falsifying the next round would prove harder still - perhaps impossible - considering that most experts believe that Mr. Yanukovych needs to stay within 10 points of Mr. Yushchenko to show results that would make him president.

With Mr. Moroz on board, Ukraine would have a truly united opposition and Mr. Yushchenko would have a better than even chance of bringing the curtain down on a regime that long ago lost any semblance of legitimacy and democratic rule.

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