ANALYSIS: Ukraine reported in turmoil after presidential election (11/28/04)

ANALYSIS

Ukraine reported in turmoil after presidential election

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

A crowd estimated to number at least 100,000 took part in a rally on Independence Square in Kyiv on the evening of November 22 to protest what they perceive to be government fraud during the previous day's presidential runoff between Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko.

With 99.38 percent of the vote tallied, the Central Election Commission (CEC) had announced earlier in the day that Mr. Yanukovych won 49.42 percent of the vote to Mr. Yushchenko's 46.7 percent. Meanwhile, Mr. Yushchenko told the crowd on Independence Square that by resorting to massive fraud, primarily in Ukraine's eastern regions, the authorities stole 3.1 million votes from him and, consequently, his election victory.

Speaking to some 60,000 people at the same rally earlier in the day, Mr. Yushchenko called on Ukrainians to organize popular resistance against the alleged vote fraud and defend what he described as his election victory. In addition, Mr. Yushchenko's political ally Yulia Tymoshenko has called on Ukrainians to launch a nationwide strike.

Mr. Yushchenko backers have pitched some 300 tents along Khreshchatyk, Kyiv's main thoroughfare, and have reportedly vowed to stay in them until Mr. Yushchenko is declared the country's elected president. There have been also reports that Mr. Yushchenko's supporters are coming to Kyiv from the provinces despite police blockades of the roads around the capital and elsewhere in the country, while the authorities are bringing Mr. Yanukovych's adherents to Kyiv in buses.

In the meantime, local councils in several cities in western Ukraine, including Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk, have adopted resolutions claiming that they will recognize only Mr. Yushchenko as the legitimate president and supporting the opposition call for a general strike. The Kyiv City Council passed a resolution expressing distrust in the Central Election Commission.

The opposition had also managed to collect 150 signatures among parliamentary deputies calling for an emergency session on November 23 to discuss the situation in the country and move a vote of no confidence in the commission. It is unclear how such a vote, if passed, could influence the official results of the November 21 ballot. Verkhovna Rada Chairman Lytvyn told journalists on November 22 that any resolution of the Parliament concerning the Central Election Commission would be merely a "political gesture." Both Western and domestic independent election monitors have concurred that the November 21 vote in Ukraine was far from democratic. The Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU), a non-governmental electoral watchdog, reported on November 21 that illegal voting by absentee voter certificate was the biggest problem in the run-off, UNIAN reported. "Our observers have registered more than 100 buses carrying these people [voting illegally], and one can gather that tens of thousands [of people] have voted in this way," CVU Chairman Ihor Popov told journalists.

The CVU also reported numerous incidents of assault on observers and journalists, and even kidnappings. "Up to a dozen people have been kidnapped today by criminal-looking individuals," Mr. Popov claimed. Other alleged irregularities included preventing observers, both domestic and international, and journalists from entering polling stations, the use of counterfeit ballots, and the failure to sign or stamp ballot papers by some commission members.

The OSCE International Election Observation Mission for the Ukrainian presidential run-off said in its preliminary conclusions on November 22 that the vote failed to meet a considerable number of democratic standards. According to the OSCE mission, Ukrainian executive authorities and the Central Election Commission "displayed a lack of will to conduct a genuine democratic election process." U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), President George W. Bush's special envoy for the Ukrainian election, charged that the Ukrainian government was involved in a "concerted and forceful program of election-day fraud and abuse."

However, the West's remonstrations against the Ukrainian ballot seem to carry little weight with Ukrainian authorities. For them, much more important was the position of the Kremlin, which did not hide its sympathies for Mr. Yanukovych during the election campaign. On November 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly congratulated Mr. Yanukovych on his election victory, saying that "the battle has been hard-fought, but open and honest."

It appears highly improbable that Ukrainian authorities will yield to the current surge of anti-Yanukovych protests and declare Mr. Yushchenko the winner. Two other options appear more likely: either the authorities will wait with Mr. Yanukovych's inauguration until the anti-government rebellion peters out; if the protests prove to be persistent and well-attended, the presidential ballot might be declared invalid and incumbent President Leonid Kuchma could continue to rule for another half year in order to prepare for a new election.

Yet, irrespective of the final outcome of the current standoff in Ukraine, it will be problematic, if not impossible, for President Kuchma to assure political continuity for his regime, something he repeatedly urged during the election campaign. Ukraine seems to have awakened to a new political life in which millions of people are no longer prepared to mutely endure electoral manipulation, official lies, and autocratic governance.

Seen from this perspective, Ukraine's presidential election of 2004 appears to offer an opportunity unprecedented in Ukraine's 13 years of independence for politicians, from both the pro-Yanukovych and the pro-Yushchenko camps, to practice the difficult art of political compromise in order to ensure the unity of their bitterly divided country.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus and Ukraine specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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