ANALYSIS: Yanukovych loses control in Kyiv, retreats to Donetsk (12/05/04)

ANALYSIS

Yanukovych loses control in Kyiv, retreats to Donetsk

by Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor
(November 29)

As the political standoff continues in Ukraine, the only conclusion that can now possibly be made is that the pro-presidential camp never sought to hold free and fair elections in the first place. Both rounds 1 (October 31) and 2 (November 21) of the presidential elections were condemned by international organizations, Western governments and Ukrainian domestic observers.

Plans for organized mass election fraud have been confirmed on tapes made by the Security Service of Ukraine (known by its Ukrainian acronym as SBU) in Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's campaign headquarters and subsequently leaked to challenger Viktor Yushchenko. (The Russian-language tapes can be heard at maidan.uar.net/audio, and pravda.com.ua has published three excerpts.) Just as President Leonid Kuchma was implicated in Kuchmagate, now a "Yanukovychgate" is taking shape.

While the first round witnessed moderate "massaging" of the vote, in the second round the authorities deployed extensive and blatant fraud. The political crisis following round 2 has paralyzed the authorities, which grossly under-estimated the domestic and international reaction and vastly over-estimated their own strength. Mr. Yanukovych has admitted, "If I am to be really honest, I never expected such statements [from the West]" (Ukrainska Pravda, November 25). Institutions of state power (local councils, educational institutions, television, the Internal Affairs Ministry, the military and SBU) have increasingly recognized Mr. Yushchenko as Ukraine's next elected president while refusing to recognize Mr. Yanukovych's alleged "victory."

The authorities paralysis pushed them into pressuring the Central Election Commission (CEC), which itself was involved in election fraud, to declare on November 24 that Mr. Yanukovych had won. Their plans to rush through Mr. Yanukovych's inauguration two days later and publish the official election results in Parliament's Holos Ukrainy and the Cabinet of Ministers' Uriadovyi Kurier was thwarted by both Yushchenko's "Orange Revolution" on the streets of Kyiv and by the Supreme Court ruling that no official announcement could be made until it had investigated the numerous charges of fraud.

This left the Yanukovych camp in further paralysis and panic. One day after the CEC announced the official results, the situation in Kyiv and Ukraine began to "tip" in Mr. Yushchenko's favor. While Leonid Kuchma is still president technically, real power is increasingly moving into Mr. Yushchenko's hands.

In August 1991 leading Ukrainian officials, including then-parliamentary speaker Leonid Kravchuk, waited until the anti-Gorbachev putsch in Moscow failed before jumping ship. The same delay was happening during the current "Orange Revolution," as many individuals and state institutions waited until Thursday or Friday (November 25-26) before defecting to Mr. Yushchenko. Internal Affairs Ministry cadets and officers openly sided with Mr. Yushchenko, while the SBU and former Defense Minister Yevhen Marchuk issued statements condemning election fraud (see Marchuk on 5tv.com.ua/video). The Ministry of Defense orchestra even serenaded the sea of orange-clad protesters in Kyiv.

Mr. Yanukovych's gut instincts were always to resort to force or provoke conflicts with Mr. Yushchenko's orange crowd by transporting his own supporters to Kyiv. They began to arrive on November 24-25 and never totaled more than 15,000-20,000 (compared to Mr. Yushchenko's estimated 200,000-1 million). Mr. Yanukovych's supporters tended to be coal miners or other workers from his home base of Donetsk, who were given $100 for expenses, free alcohol and transportation (The Times, November 27).

Dispatching Mr. Yanukovych supporters to Kyiv grossly backfired. Instead of clashing with Yushchenko supporters, some of them defected to Mr. Yushchenko's side after engaging in political discussions and being given warm clothing, food and shelter. Other Yanukovych supporters were simply awed by the size of Mr. Yushchenko's support, as local Donetsk television stations had misled them about the scale of the protests. At the November 26 roundtable negotiations brokered by Poland and the European Union, Mr. Yanukovych announced that he would send home his supporters. Mr. Yushchenko wryly pleaded for him to continue sending them, as many had defected to his ranks.

The governmental paralysis deepened during parliamentary hearings on Saturday, November 27, when the pro-presidential camp split. The stormy session voted by an unusually high constitutional majority of 307 votes (out of 450) for a resolution that did not recognize the second-round vote. The resolution was supported by key opposition groups: the dissident Center faction (which had supported Mr. Yushchenko in round 2), Rada Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn's Agrarians, and the National Democratic Party - Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (PIE head Anatolii Kinakh also backed Mr. Yushchenko in round 2), and unaffiliated deputies.

Opposition to the resolution came from Mr. Yanukovych's regions of Ukraine, Labor Ukraine (led by Serhii Tyhypko, who formally headed the Yanukovych campaign), and the Social Democratic Party - United. Even within these three factions, 19 out of 131 deputies backed the resolution.

The 48-hour ultimatum issued by Mr. Yushchenko at the November 26 roundtable meeting, followed one day later by the parliamentary resolution, were too much for Mr. Yanukovych. Feeling betrayed by President Kuchma and other Kyiv allies, and unable for an entire week to enter his own government building due to a blockade by the orange crowds, Mr. Yanukovych was forced to abandon Kyiv and retreat to Donetsk.

Seven days after the run-off, an extraordinary session of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) convened without the prime minister. The SDC criticized Mr. Yushchenko's supporters for barricading state and government buildings in Kyiv. Meanwhile, Mr. Yanukovych and his eastern Ukrainian allies were criticized for separatist and autonomist agitation. President Kuchma even praised Parliament's resolution as "correct," which Mr. Yanukovych interpreted as further evidence of betrayal (Ukrainska Pravda, November 28). Even before round 2 Mr. Yanukovych had threatened Mr. Kuchma that he would become his "personal enemy" if he approved changes to the law on presidential elections adopted by Parliament on November 18 that aimed to remove potential channels for election abuse.

Mr. Yanukovych ignored the NSDC session, instead preferring an "All-Ukrainian Congress of Deputies" held in Siverodonetsk, Donetsk Oblast. Besides local council deputies from Russophone regions of eastern and southern Ukraine, the congress invited Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov to speak, in what can only be understood as gross interference in Ukraine's internal affairs. The congress was broadcast using Russian television transmitters.

The congress heard calls for a "federal southeastern republic based in Kharkiv" (Ukrainska Pravda, November 28). Mr. Yanukovych threatened to call for a referendum on this issue if Mr. Yushchenko becomes president. The 1994 elections in Donetsk included a referendum on a similar question and, like then, any such referendum today would have no legal force. Not surprisingly, as Mr. Yushchenko pointed out, the officials organizing these separatist steps are the same individuals who were most involved in election fraud.

Prime Minister Yanukovych's retreat to Donetsk also reflects his skepticism about the Supreme Court ruling being held November 29. The Supreme Court is likely either to annul the results in the regions with rampant fraud (i.e., Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv) and then hold fresh elections, or to call for a repeat of round 2 on December 12 or 19 - a step preferred by Mr. Yushchenko. In either case, Mr. Yanukovych is likely to lose to Mr. Yushchenko by a substantial margin, as he has been discredited by the charges of election fraud.

Mr. Yanukovych is in a dilemma of his own choosing. Claims that he did not know of plans to falsify the elections on his behalf are not believable. The majority of Ukrainians, who have watched unbiased television coverage since November 25, now believe Mr. Yushchenko's charge that round 2 was plagued by election fraud.

President Kuchma is squeezed between the "Orange Revolution" and Mr. Yanukovych's wrath at being betrayed. By permitting Viktor Medvedchuk, head of the presidential administration, to undertake the dirtiest and most divisive elections in Ukraine's history, President Kuchma is now facing both a popular revolution and autonomist-separatist sentiment as he leaves office.

Taras Kuzio is visiting professor at the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University. The articles above, which originally appeared in The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, are reprinted here with permission from the foundation (www.jamestown.org).

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