State Department analyst discusses Ukraine's Orange Revolution (12/12/04)

State Department analyst discusses Ukraine's Orange Revolution

by Serhiy Bilenky

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. - Gene Fishel, a senior analyst for the U.S. State Department, on Thursday, December 2, discussed the current crisis revolving around Ukraine's presidential election. Sponsored by the Ukraine Study Group (USG) of the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute (HURI), the lecture attracted some 80 people: from the Harvard community, including the Harvard Law School, the Kennedy School of Government, the Harvard Divinity School and the Harvard Slavic Department; from the Ukrainian diaspora in the greater Boston area; and from news outlets, including reporters from the Providence Journal and Ukrainska Pravda.

Mr. Fishel, who has also been a HURI research associate, noted that U.S. officials had on various occasions recently offered views on the alleged fraudulent nature of Ukraine's election. In a statement on November 23, the White House said that "the U.S. government stands with the Ukrainian people in this difficult time." The following day, Secretary of State Colin Powell affirmed that the U.S. does not recognize the official results of the election.

Mr. Fishel was blunt in his observation that "the election was stolen." An artificially high turnout in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, the unprecedented number of absentee voter certificates and home votes, and the pre-election purging of election commission officials appointed by the opposition all provided strong evidence the result was fraudulent. In Mr. Fishel's words, the inability of Ukraine's government to conduct free, fair, and transparent elections was "an act of violence upon the Ukrainian people."

In response to a question from the audience about the "worst-case scenario," Mr. Fishel said that the introduction of martial law by current President Leonid Kuchma would have the most severe repercussions for the citizens of Ukraine, as well as for its foreign relations.

As is well known, the West supports the holding of another run-off election, with increased supervision, between Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko. Mr. Fishel said that the U.S. government, however, does not support a particular candidate; rather the U.S. supports the democratic process.

In Mr. Fishel's view, however, Russia has made a "colossal miscalculation" in taking sides and supporting Mr. Yanukovych's candidacy. While it is true that a Yushchenko victory would give Ukraine the opportunity to strengthen its ties to the West, a Yanukovych presidency would not necessarily be in Russia's economic interests.

The current developments in Ukraine, according to Mr. Fishel, will affect both Europe and Russia in their perceptions of one another. If the Ukrainian elections proceed toward greater democracy, the outcome can help Russia become "a normal state" and overcome its imperial legacy.

At the same time, Ukraine's democratic revolution can broaden Europeans' perception of their borders and perhaps eventually bring Ukraine into the European Union, assuming it fulfills the strict membership requirements and that action is approved by the Ukrainian people.

In offering predictions, Mr. Fishel stated that he does not believe Mr. Yanukovych will win the presidency. He asserted that it was highly likely that the Supreme Court of Ukraine would deem the November 21 election as fraudulent and, perhaps, would authorize a run-off election between the original two candidates. [On December 3, the day after Mr. Fishel's lecture, the Supreme Court in fact did authorize that run-off, to be held by December 26.]

According to Mr. Fishel, the Ukrainian government can best handle a revote by ensuring that its election commissions are objective, that absentee and home balloting are tightly controlled, and that the media are allowed complete freedom to observe and report on the election. Meeting these conditions would guarantee that the will of the Ukrainian people is reflected in the outcome. The price of failure would be high, he said, in that the government would have no legitimacy and that a new dividing line would appear in Europe.

Following the lecture, the audience participated in a spirited debate over issues ranging from possible inclusion of Ukraine in the European Union and in NATO to the effects of separatist tendencies in the eastern regions of the country.

Whatever the outcome, Mr. Fishel emphasized that through the non-violent protests in Kyiv and elsewhere "the Ukrainians have shown that there is a civil society in Ukraine." Expressing solidarity with the opposition party, the majority in the audience voiced their hopes that the election of Mr. Yushchenko can further promote the development of democracy in Ukraine.

Serhiy Bilenky is a research fellow at the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute.

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