Specialists discuss post-election Ukraine (12/19/04)

Specialists discuss post-election Ukraine

by Yaro Bihun
Special to The Ukrainian Weekly

WASHINGTON - While the Ukrainian people and politicians were focusing their attention on the December 26 final presidential election run-off between Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych, a gathering of foreign, economic and defense policy experts, government officials and politicians from Ukraine, Europe and the United States came together at a prominent think-tank here to discuss what course Ukraine would be taking after the election and how the West could help.

And even though Zbigniew Brzezinski, former President Jimmy Carter's national security advisor, inserted a word of caution that "it isn't over yet" into his speech at the conclusion of the daylong conference, it was apparent that most, if not all, of the participants - Dr. Brzezinski included - were analyzing Ukraine's future under a Yushchenko administration and not that of his rival, Mr. Yanukovych.

The December 10 conference, "Ukraine's Choices: Europe or Russia?" was organized by The New Atlantic Initiative of the American Enterprise Institute, along with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, Freedom House, the International Republican Institute, the National Endowment for Democracy, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Conference participants had a chance to hear the Yushchenko team's future policy plans from his campaign chief of staff, Oleh Rybachuk, who did not hedge about how he saw Ukraine's future orientation under a Yushchenko administration.

"And here we would like to be very clear," he said. "Our priority is exclusively Euro-integration. We don't have a multi-vectoral policy. We are clearly moving for joining the EU [European Union] and becoming a member of the NATO. And we are telling Russians the same message," he said.

Neither Mr. Rybachuk, nor any other speaker, discounted the need for Ukraine to maintain good relations with its large northern neighbor. As Ukraine's Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Oleh Shamshur pointed out, the choice does not have to be, as the conference title implied, Europe "or" Russia. While Ukraine "is on its way to confirm its truly and unmistakably European identity," he said, its relations with Russia are "extremely important" for both countries ,as well as for the stability and security of Europe, he said.

Similarly, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, while reiterating Washington's position on that issue - that it is up to Ukraine to determine its own future and relationships with other countries - stressed that maintaining good relations with both Russia and the West "will be important to Ukraine and to broader peace and stability." She also stressed that America's role in assisting Ukraine's electoral process was in promoting democracy and not one or the other candidate.

Dr. Brzezinski, in his remarks looked beyond the effects the Orange Revolution would have on Ukraine itself. Russia, he said, "is next" in the movement of democracy eastward in Europe.

He quoted from an analysis in the Russian newspaper Izvestia which suggested that a loss by President Leonid Kuchma's hand-picked successor, Mr. Yanukovych, in Ukraine would be a signal to Russia that Mr. Putin's future chosen successor might lose as well. The article suggested that if there is to be any "separatism" in the region, it probably will be, first of all, in Kaliningrad, where young people, too, will take to the streets, shouting, "We're sick of living in hostels, with a toilet at the end of the corridor ...we want to be part of Europe."

Dr. Brzezinski stressed, as others had earlier in the day, that once Yushchenko becomes president, the West will have to be willing to provide Ukraine with "tangible" support, including accelerating its entry into the World Trade Organization, certifying it as a free-market economy, allowing Ukrainians - even those seeking work - more access to Europe, and - "if Ukraine wishes it" - granting it membership in NATO. "I think all of that is absolutely essential, because that will then consolidate the victory of democracy in Ukraine, and that, too, in turn, will accelerate what I consider almost inevitable today, the transformation of Russia," he said. (A transcript of Zbigniew Brzezinski's remarks appears on Page 9.)

Many conference participants underscored the importance of the "victory of democracy" Dr. Brzezinski spoke about. During a session on the geopolitical assessment, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Green Miller referred to it as a "sea change" in that country's history. James Sherr, a fellow at the Conflict Studies Research Center of the British Defense Academy, described it in much the same way as National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy President Viacheslav Briukhovetsky did in an earlier session on civil society: Ukrainians stopped seeing their country "as an object in international relations, as a country acted upon and not as an actor and an influence in its own right."

Russian President Putin and others in that region with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo will do their utmost to ensure that a Yushchenko administration fails. The problem and challenge in that change, according to Mr. Sherr, is that Ukraine may not be strong enough to manage its new role. And that is a challenge for the West as well, he added.

"The worst-case scenario for Ukraine is not that Yanukovych would win the election on the 26th of December," he said. "The worst-case scenario for Ukraine, and I would say for all of Europe, is that Yushchenko should win, and then fail. And we perform a very important role in answering the question as to whether he will succeed or fail."

Another former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer, who recently retired from the foreign service, noted that Mr. Yushchenko will be coming to office with "a large plate of issues," and it will be very important for him to set his priorities, primarily domestic, and deliver on them in a short span of time. It is incumbent on the United States and other Western governments to help him achieve this, he said.

There should be an increase in U.S. assistance to help him consolidate democratic and economic reforms in Ukraine, he said, adding that it must be a coordinated effort.

"It will be best for us if we understand very clearly where the Yushcheko administration is going, so we can target our assistance efforts to support those priorities he has identified," Ambassador Pifer said. "If he's working on A, B and C, we don't want our money going to X, Y and Z."

Ambassador Miller, who served in Kyiv from 1993 to 1998 and has remained involved in Ukrainian affairs since then as a senior policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, noted that when Mr. Yushchenko was prime minister he was not helped in times of extreme economic difficulty by the international financial institutions or by the United States.

"We didn't move quickly enough," he said. "Don't let that happen again."

James Sherr noted that Viktor Yushchenko will also have to make some tough decisions about who he surrounds himself with. "Your best friends, philosophers, intellectuals, at that point are not necessarily the best people to surround you," he cautioned. "You need as early as possible to surround yourself with professionals, whether they fully agree with you or not."

He also suggested that neither the future Yushchenko government nor the West should "underestimate the power of example."

"What happens (in Ukraine) enlarges the bounds of the possible of realistic discussion not only in Russia, but in Belarus and Moldova and many other places." And while the West does not have the resources to resolve all of the problems of the region, he said, "Let's make Ukraine succeed, and other problems will begin to sort themselves out."

* * *

Following the AEI conference, Viacheslav Briukhovetsky briefed the Washington Ukrainian American community about the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, its historic development and significance, as well as the possibilities it opens for Ukraine's future. The briefing, organized by the Chopivsky Family Foundation, was held at the Pilgrims' Church, next to the Shevchenko Monument.

As an aside, he noted the effect the mass media coverage was having on educating Americans about Ukraine. He had visited the United States many of times over the past dozen years, he said, but this time around the airport visa control officer did not ask him whether Ukraine was part of Yugoslavia.

He also predicted that after Mr. Yushchenko completes his constitutionally permissible two terms - 10 years - as president of Ukraine, his successor undoubtedly will be a graduate of the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, a historic Ukrainian university Dr. Briukhovetsky helped restore after Ukraine regained its independence.

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