ANALYSIS: Post-revolutionary moods mapped out in Ukraine (08/21/05)

ANALYSIS

Post-revolutionary moods mapped out in Ukraine

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

The Washington-based International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) recently published its conclusions from a survey of 1,265 Ukrainians in late February that was devoted to perceptions of the Orange Revolution and its consequences. Pollsters explored perceptions of last year's presidential election, attitudes toward the mass anti-government demonstrations that followed the second round of voting on November 21, 2004, and post-election expectations for Ukraine.

Three of the clear findings that emerge from the IFES survey are that the Orange Revolution marked a zenith in the public's attention to politics, that a partisan rift has emerged over the country's democratic credentials, and that the events of November and December 2004 boosted citizens' faith in the ballot box and its outlook for the future.

But while the polling agency stressed that the events of late 2004 mark a defining moment in Ukrainian history and public opinion, it also noted significant sociopolitical cleavages that persist in the country. The survey was the IFES's 13th nationwide survey in Ukraine since 1994 and was sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

IFES found that more Ukrainians believe the October 31 and November 21, 2004, presidential vote was unfair than think it was mostly or completely fair, with distrust of the November 21 balloting more than double the level of trust. Meanwhile, a majority of Ukrainians - 57 percent - believe the repeat vote in late December 2004 was fair, according to IFES.

Nearly two of three respondents support the replacement of the Central Election Commission after the November 21 vote. More than half say the new commission performed better, but there is a sharp divide depending on political loyalties. The overwhelming majority of Viktor Yushchenko supporters (82 percent) say the new commission was nonpartisan, while just 8 percent of those who report voting for Viktor Yanukovych express such an opinion - unsurprising perhaps, given Mr. Yanukovych's subsequent failure in the vote.

IFES drew a number of broad conclusions from its survey that suggest Ukrainians are following political events more carefully in hopes of seizing on a more participatory system.

IFES noted that the Orange Revolution marked a sea change in the public interest in politics in Ukraine. The survey found that after the elections, 72 percent of Ukrainians claim to possess at least a moderate level of interest in politics, while that level was 59 percent shortly prior to the presidential election.

But there is a partisan divide over whether Ukraine is a democracy, according to IFES. Those who live in oblasts where Mr. Yushchenko won an especially high number of votes are more likely to say that Ukraine is a democracy than those who live in regions with a strong preference for Mr. Yanukovych (77 percent versus 28 percent). Curiously, a pre-election survey showed the opposite results: in October, those living in areas that supported Mr. Yushchenko were much less likely to describe Ukraine as a democracy than oblasts with strong preferences for Mr. Yanukovych (14 percent versus 34 percent).

The Orange Revolution has also strengthened Ukrainians' faith in the power of the ballot box. A majority of Ukrainians (53 percent) now say that voting gives them a chance to influence decision-making in the country. In October 2004, the same proportion of people said voting can make a difference as disagreed with that view (47 percent each).

Regarding expectations for the future, IFES concluded that 43 percent of Ukrainians believe the 2004 presidential election placed Ukraine on a path toward stability and prosperity, while 12 percent believe that Ukraine is headed toward instability. Economically speaking, 57 percent of Ukrainians describe the situation as bad or very bad, while just 9 percent perceive it as good or very good. In the 2003 survey, 86 percent described the economy as bad.

The Orange Revolution also appears to have ushered in widespread optimism, IFES found. Majorities expect to see at least some improvements in relations with Western countries (70 percent), the economy (65 percent), the fight against corruption (63 percent), respect for human rights (59 percent) and political stability (54 percent) over the next two years.

Institutions that played key roles in the Orange Revolution have seen an improvement in their public standing since the Yushchenko victory. More Ukrainians now express positive impressions of the Verkhovna Rada, the judicial system, the media and non-governmental organizations than before the presidential election in October. Four in 10 Ukrainians now have a better impression of the media than they did at the start of the election process, versus 11 percent who view the media more negatively and 38 percent whose views have not changed substantially. Impressions of the legislature, the Verkhovna Rada, have improved among 42 percent of Ukrainians versus just 15 percent whose opinions have worsened and 33 percent who say their perceptions are unchanged.

IFES found in February that 65 percent of Ukrainians have confidence in President Yushchenko, while 25 percent say they have little or no confidence in him. (Among those who voted for Mr. Yanukovych, just 17 percent say they have confidence in the new president.) Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko enjoys the confidence of 57 percent of Ukrainians.

While IFES concluded that the Orange Revolution marks a defining moment in Ukrainian history and Ukrainian public opinion through a major shift in social attitudes toward democracy and a more active participation of citizens in politics, the pollster also noted important sociopolitical cleavages in Ukraine's public opinion regarding the events of November-December 2004.

In its analysis of these cleavages, IFES chooses the self-explanatory terms "revolutionary enthusiasts" (48 percent of the population), "revolutionary opponents" (23 percent), and "revolutionary agnostics" (for those holding the middle ground between the previous two groups and characterized by a wait-and-see attitude - 29 percent of the population). According to IFES, there are no major differences based on gender or education among those three groups.

In terms of ethnicity, the revolutionary enthusiasts tend to identify themselves as ethnic Ukrainians, while the majority of the country's ethnic Russians falls into the revolutionary opponents group. The revolutionary agnostics are an ethnically diverse group. Pensioners and the elderly are overrepresented among the opponents, while the agnostics include a larger proportion of students than is found among the general population.

In terms of political geography, revolutionary enthusiasts live mainly in oblasts with moderate or strong support for Mr. Yushchenko and in the western regions of Ukraine. Revolutionary agnostics, who tend to live in oblasts with moderate support for both candidates, fall nearly equally on the side of Mr. Yushchenko or Mr. Yanukovych and a plurality lives in the eastern part of the country. Revolutionary opponents tend to live nearly exclusively in the east, in oblasts with strong or moderate support for Mr. Yanukovych.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus and Ukraine specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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