Ukraine's Orange legacy is dissected at the Shevchenko Society (10/02/05)

Ukraine's Orange legacy is dissected at the Shevchenko Society

by Dr. Orest Popovych

NEW YORK - Commenting that the timing of this program is terrific, Eugene Fishel delivered a lecture titled "After the Orange Revolution: Progress to Date and the Challenges Ahead," at the Shevchenko Scientific Society (NTSh) headquarters on September 17.

Mr. Fishel, an analyst with the U.S. Department of State and a specialist on Ukraine, was referring to the confluence of several momentous events that thrust Ukraine into the spotlight. These included the recent major crisis in the government of Ukraine, the arrival in New York of a number of Ukrainian officials for the opening of the U.N. General Assembly, the two banquets that had just taken place in New York in honor of President Viktor Yushchenko, and the presentation that very day of the Philadelphia Liberty Medal to the Ukrainian president.

Calling NTSh "a bastion of learning and Ukrainian ideas," Mr. Fishel noted a common thread between that day's topic and the NTSh conference on Mr. Yushchenko's poisoning, which he had attended earlier this year.

In the words of Mr. Fishel, Ukraine's progress since the Orange Revolution has been phenomenal: the political scene has been transformed so that ordinary people feel they do have an impact; freedom of the media has improved, as witnessed by the live TV coverage of the resignation of Ukraine's State Secretary Oleksander Zinchenko, a happening that would have been unthinkable under Ukraine's previous regimes; the oligarchs have gone largely on the defensive; there have been legislative successes, including the passage of seven bills required for Ukraine's accession to the World Trade Organization; and Ukraine-U.S. bilateral agreements have multiplied.

The U.S. wholeheartedly supports Ukraine's goal of membership in the WTO, said Mr. Fishel, backing it up with the Ukraine-watchers' joke that "Ukraine's best friend in Europe is America."

He did, however, mitigate this rhapsody about Ukraine's progress with a few caveats: Mr. Yushchenko still has to learn how to handle the media, having been unable to provide a satisfactory answer to the accusations about the extravagant lifestyle of his son Andriy. The legislature still has to pass nine additional bills required for Ukraine's WTO membership.

The challenges facing Ukraine now are no less formidable, continued Mr. Fishel. The overriding challenge is to deliver on the promises of the Orange Revolution, which raised high expectations. While the revolution did show Ukraine to be a nation, its momentum must be maintained through effective reforms, lest it be squandered away. President Yushchenko's team that existed prior to September 8 obviously did not work well together, and the president must now create a real working coalition, said the speaker.

Mr. Yushchenko's dismissal of his Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, who was the fire behind the Orange Revolution, represents much more than the departure of one individual; it signals the collapse of the Orange Coalition, said Mr. Fishel. This development has evoked concerns in Washington because it has created openings for former Kuchma people to fill.

According to Mr. Fishel, the Tymoshenko crisis occurred because she and Petro Poroshenko, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, had pursued very ambitious agendas that exceeded their legitimate powers. Thus, the crisis of September 8 was predetermined. It is unfortunate, said the lecturer, that Mr. Yushchenko accepted the resignation of Mr. Zinchenko, who in his opinion is a very clean person who was right on target with his accusations of corruption.

Mr. Fishel noted that it is hoped the elections to the Verkhovna Rada next March are a triumph of Ukrainian democracy, demonstrating that the Orange Revolution was not a fluke, while pointing out that a stable pro-reform majority in the Verkhovna Rada took a hit with the departure of Ms. Tymoshenko.

Very significant for the future of Ukraine is the Russia factor, continued Mr. Fishel. Originally, the Orange Revolution seemed to be the last nail in the coffin of the Soviet Union and Russian imperialism, but a re-evaluation of the Orange Revolution is now taking place in Moscow. If the Orange Revolution should fail, it would encourage all the wrong instincts in Russia, which are directed against Ukraine's European tendencies. Furthermore, concerns have been raised by the statement of Ukraine's new acting prime minister, Yurii Yekhanurov, that under his guidance Ukraine's relations with Russia will improve. Mr. Fishel warned that Western attention spans are very short and that senior policy-makers in Washington often make decisions based on today's headlines. Therefore, the window of opportunity for Ukraine may be closing quickly.

In tackling the topic of Ukraine's future outlook, Mr. Fishel hedged his prognostications: the purge of Ukraine's Cabinet can be viewed as a good opportunity, or as a crisis, if it leads to the complete dissolution of the Orange coalition. The current crisis could be overcome, or it could get worse up to the elections to the Verkhovna Rada. The only certainty is that Ukraine is clearly at a crossroads, he said.

Much of Ukraine's future will depend on President Yushchenko's leadership style, which has been very active lately, continued Mr. Fishel. Mr. Yekhanurov is described as a technocrat, an administrator, so that it will be up to Mr. Yushchenko to provide the vision for Ukraine. He must do so by taking advantage of his high poll ratings, but without reviving the cult of personality. Ukraine cannot afford to have a triumph of personality over the ideals of the Orange Revolution, concluded Mr. Fishel.

The lecture was followed by a lengthy period of discussion, which was opened by the Shevchenko Scientific Society's president, Dr. Larissa Zaleska Onyshkevych. Mr. Fishel, who was born in Ukraine, addressed the audience in English, but did accept questions in Ukrainian as well. The discussion was especially enriched by the participation of Adrian Karatnycky, counselor and senior scholar at Freedom House, who expressed views that in a few instances challenged those of the lecturer. Thus, the audience was treated to a friendly tussle between two specialists on Ukrainian politics.

Prof. Vasyl Makhno, who emceed the program, upon closing the formal discussion, invited all to continue their exchange of ideas at a social hour.

| Home Page |