Motyl speaks at Kennan Institute on paths chosen by Ukraine, Russia (10/16/05)

Motyl speaks at Kennan Institute on paths chosen by Ukraine, Russia

by Alana Malick

WASHINGTON - The Kennan Institute on September 26 hosted a lecture by Alexander Motyl, deputy director of the Center for Global Change and Governance and professor in the department of political science at Rutgers University.

Dr. Alexander Motyl's lecture, titled "Two Cheers for Stagnation: Institutional Development and Democracy in Ukraine and Russia," offered an explanation for why Ukraine and Russia have diverged on such contrasting paths - the former toward democracy and the latter toward authoritarianism.

Arguing that "institution-building" is not a proper characterization of democratization, but that the process is actually one of "institution-rebuilding," Ukraine's developmental stagnation makes sense, according to Dr. Motyl, simply because rebuilding takes time.

Prof. Motyl said he believes that Russia's massive transformations over the past 15 years are evidence of coercive, democratic de-institutionalization. He contrasts this with Ukraine's modest evolution, which reflects the fact that cultural values and communist mentalities are slowly being discredited, allowing formal democratic processes and rule of law to dictate the functioning of civil society.

Authoritarian regimes show rapid transformation precisely because they disregard democratic rules and processes. If both Russia and Ukraine are so to speak "muddling through," Prof. Motyl argued that Russia's coerced institutionalization is unfortunately a muddling down. Ukraine's fundamental changes, resulting essentially from the repetition of formal democratic processes, are on the other hand a "muddling up." In this sense, Prof. Motyl credited Ukraine's stagnation and the gradual evolution of its political culture with bringing about lasting institutional democratization.

Prof. Motyl's perspective on the Orange Revolution begins with the premise that formal democracy has in fact existed in Ukraine for 15 years. He believes, therefore, that the most interesting feature of the revolution is that, for the first time, the major political players more or less played by the prescribed democratic institutional rules. This alignment of political norms and public attitude with the rule of law, he said, is the most remarkable element of Viktor Yushchenko's rise to the presidency.

Prof. Motyl predicted the complete "Orangification" of the non-democratic opposition in Ukraine, as the institutionalization of democratic norms continues to force all political players to follow the rules of law in order to accomplish both political and economic objectives.

Prof. Motyl concluded his lecture by responding to an interesting question from a participant, who asked what the implications of Prof. Motyl's stagnation model are on the U.S. aid policy toward Ukraine. The speaker suggested that U.S. support of Ukrainian institution-building will have to be focused on long-term results. If the United States withdrawals training programs and reduces funding based on expectations of immediate change, then it is failing to appreciate the important institutional transformations that are taking place in Ukraine.

Alana Malick is a fellow at the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation.

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