ANALYSIS: September crisis may be over, but strategic problems remain (10/30/05)

ANALYSIS

September crisis may be over, but strategic problems remain

by Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor

President Viktor Yushchenko has declared that the political crisis in Ukraine is over. The turmoil began on September 5 with allegations of corruption within his inner circle (Channel 5 TV, October 6). Verkhovna Rada Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn, a close ally of Mr. Yushchenko, added that there are no longer grounds to speak about a "political crisis" in Ukraine (Ukrayinska Pravda, October 11).

The reprieve will be short-lived, as the constitutional reforms coming into effect in January will make it imperative for President Yushchenko to obtain a parliamentary majority after the March 2006 parliamentary elections.

Current polls show Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine People's Union (OUPU), the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc, and the Party of the Regions of Ukraine all poll about 20 percent each (Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, September poll). Three other parties likely to enter Parliament - the Communists, Socialists and Mr. Lytvyn's People's Party - all poll less than 10 percent each. With just 5 percent support, Mr. Lytvyn may become the power broker for creating a parliamentary majority (Ukrayinska Pravda, October 13).

These low levels of support across the board mean that Mr. Yushchenko will need to compromise with the other two large blocs of votes: the Tymoshenko bloc or Viktor Yanukovych's Party of the Regions. But a compromise with either political force will bring problems.

Ms. Tymoshenko has always demanded a high-profile position in exchange for her cooperation, either prime minister or chairman of Parliament. But after Ms. Tymoshenko's poor economic performance as prime minister this year, President Yushchenko is unlikely to offer her this position again.

After widespread dismay over the memorandum signed between Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych in September, President Yushchenko will have even more problems cutting a deal with his former rival for the presidency. A 2006 OUPU-Party of the Regions of Ukraine parliamentary majority would be seen as a betrayal of the Orange Revolution, reform prospects and Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration.

In the short term, Mr. Yushchenko needed to end the immediate crisis if he is to improve his public standing and ratings in the six months remaining before the elections. After eight months of drifting, elite infighting, wasted opportunities and too-frequent travels abroad, President Yushchenko needs to re-assert his authority.

The crisis gave Mr. Yushchenko an opportunity to clean out his government before his first year as president ends. Mr. Yushchenko's son Andrii, embroiled in scandal earlier this year, is no longer seen in a $120,000 BMW "on loan" from a member of the Yushchenko entourage, although he still has his $30,000 cell phone.

Mr. Yushchenko's only major strategic mistake during the crisis was the deal with Mr. Yanukovych. Almost half (47.2 percent) of Ukrainians supported Ms. Tymoshenko's firing and the subsequent political house-cleaning. Yet two-thirds of the new government headed by Yurii Yekhanurov are holdovers from the Tymoshenko Cabinet, including three Socialist ministers.

Gone are Serhii Teriokhin (minister of economics) and Mykola Tomenko (first vice prime minister for humanitarian affairs) from the Reforms and Order Party. Reforms and Order party leader Viktor Pynzenyk remains finance minister, but he may lose his party post at an upcoming party conference.

Serhii Holovatyi replaced Roman Zvarych as justice minister. Unlike Mr. Zvarych, whose educational background led to a scandal (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, May 4), Mr. Holovatyi is a well-known legal expert who was justice minister in the mid-1990s and headed the Ukrainian Legal Foundation. Mr. Holovatyi was expelled from the Tymoshenko faction after he voted for Mr. Yekhanurov as prime minister.

In return for his agreeing to be justice minister, Mr. Holovatyi demanded the removal of Procurator General Sviatoslav Piskun, who was duly fired on October 14. Internal Affairs Minister Yurii Lutsenko has complained that his Ministry found it impossible to work with the Procurator General's Office, (PGO), which was blocking investigations at the local level (Ukrayinska Pravda, October 13). The new team at the Justice Ministry and the PGO may spur progress toward resolving Kuchma-era crimes.

Mr. Yushchenko also sacrificed several family members, businessmen who helped financed his campaign and the Orange Revolution. Mr. Yushchenko fired Transport Minister Yevhen Chervonenko, his bodyguard in the elections; Davyd Zhvania, minister of emergency situations; and Petro Poroshenko, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). Both Mr. Zhvania and Mr. Poroshenko are godfathers to Mr. Yushchenko's children.

The removal of Mr. Poroshenko and other businessmen helps repair President Yushchenko's image of not relying on oligarchs, as had former President Leonid Kuchma. Mr. Poroshenko in particular has very low popularity ratings on par with those of President Kuchma. Nevertheless, Mr. Yushchenko has always defended Mr. Poroshenko and other now-removed businessmen from allegations of corruption. Even if these allegations are not proven, President Yushchenko would be making a strategic blunder by allowing Mr. Poroshenko and other former entourage members to join the OUPU 2006 election list.

In other personnel decisions, Oleksander Tretiakov's position as first adviser to President Yushchenko has been eliminated. Mr. Tretiakov, whose business interests lie in the energy sector, had earned a reputation for controlling access to Mr. Yushchenko.

Anatolii Kinakh, first vice prime minister under Ms. Tymoshenko, is now NSDC secretary. Mr. Kinakh, whose Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs polls barely 1.1 percent, is a poor choice for this position. Under President Kuchma, NSDC secretaries were experienced in national security affairs, but Mr. Kinakh - like Mr. Poroshenko before him - has no background in this field. One of Mr. Kinakh's first policy steps was to raise the possibility of Ukraine and Russia jointly integrating into the WTO, a position welcomed by Russia (Ukrayinska Pravda, October 10).

Three key ministers have kept their jobs for now. Defense Minister Anatolii Hrytsenko and Foreign Affairs Minister Borys Tarasyuk are both staunchly pro-Western. Internal Affairs Minister Lutsenko is currently purging his corrupt ministry.

President Yushchenko survived the September political crisis, but still-bigger challenges lie ahead: winning the 2006 elections and taking control of Parliament.

Dr. Taras Kuzio is visiting professor at the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University. The article above, which originally appeared in The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, is reprinted here with permission from the foundation (www.jamestown.org).

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