LETTERS TO THE EDITOR (11/06/05)

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Orange Revolution is not yet over

Dear Editor:

The Orange Revolution is over. So said President Viktor Yushchenko on October 14, in front of assorted Ukrainian oligarchs, including some of the most notorious. The meeting was closed to the public and most of the media. He assured those he once labeled criminals during the Orange Revolution that his government will cooperate with them and protect their property rights (The Ukrainian Weekly, October 23). "Nobody will persecute you or tire you out with inspection" the president assured his audience, including Rynat Akhmetov and Ihor Kolomoyskyi.

The fact that the president promised to defend property that was acquired by crooked means by crooked individuals under a crooked administration does not seem to matter any more. The president will protect them all. By doing so President Yushchenko reneged on the principal promise he made to the Ukrainian people on the maidan in the days of the Orange Revolution: that the criminals who robbed the country of its wealth will answer for their unsavory deeds in a court of law.

Not stopping there, Mr. Yushchenko is blaming all his troubles on Yulia Tymoshenko, his former prime minister, who carried the mandate of the maidan. He portrayed himself not as president, but as an innocent bystander in the affairs of the state. And maybe he was, since he was a political tourist, traveling abroad and receiving all those international awards.

Does Mr. Yushchenko's proclamation mean that now his government is ready to serve the interests of oligarchs that fought him tooth and nail every step of the way, rather than the interests of the people that elected him? It was indeed a remarkable, if not bizarre, performance by the president brought to power by the people during the Orange Revolution.

So, Mr. Yushchenko says the revolution is over. Is it really so? Is the Orange Revolution really over? I don't think so. I believe that Mr. Yushchenko is mistaken. The Orange Revolution is not over.

The Orange Revolution is not Mr. Yushchenko, Ms. Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, or a slew of assorted oligarchs that have profited from it. The Orange Revolution is the people of Ukraine who stood in the cold and sleet and snow of endless days and nights in December of 2004, ready to die for their rights and their place under the sun, and a better future for their children. They did not make those sacrifices for the benefit of a fresh bunch of crooked oligarchs.

The Orange Revolution is not over. It is just beginning and signals a better future for Ukraine. Both President Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych with a single voice claim that they are for "stability" in the country. Neither seems to understand that revolutions are never fought for stability, but always for change.

However, here I must concede that in one respect President Yushchenko is right. The Orange Revolution of stage personalities and publicity seekers who masqueraded as leaders on the maidan is indeed unraveling. As I surf the Internet pages of Ukrayinska Pravda in Kyiv, Kommersant in Moscow, the Financial Times and the Guardian in London, The New York Times and the Washington Post in the U.S., I find myself knee deep in the mud and slime of accusations and counter-accusations. Mr. Poroshenko accuses Ms. Tymoshenko, Sviatoslav Piskun accuses Mr. Poroshenko, Serhii Holovatyi accuses Mr. Piskun, Andrii Shkil accuses Mr. Yushchenko. Not to be left behind, Mr. Yushchenko accuses Ms. Tymoshenko, and Oleksander Zinchenko accuses all.

How could this happen in such a short time? The explanation of what appears to be the rapid descent of the Orange Revolution elite (and here I underscore the elite rather than the people) into what Ukrainians so colorfully describe as "bardak" can be found in the Heisenberg Principle of Uncertainty. This principle postulates in general terms that in the universe where we live anything and everything is probable to a varying degree, and indeed happens - even more so in the bizarre world of politics in Ukraine.

The mathematically abstract extension of the Heisenberg Principle suggests the existence of parallel universes. And again, the best illustration of this is in Ukraine, indeed a country of parallel universes. There is a universe of oligarchs orbiting Mr. Yushchenko, and there is parallel and different universe of oligarchs orbiting Mr. Yanukovych. There is also a parallel and different universe of national democrats orbiting Ms. Tymoshenko, and there is parallel and different universe of Communists orbiting Petro Symonenko. And there are many, many more parallel universes in Ukraine. They all exist in the same time and space, but operate under different rules and philosophies.

The parallel universes of Ukraine sometimes meet and collide. And sometimes they lead to symbiosis, as happened recently when the oligarchic universes of Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych combined for the sake of "stability," or to be more precise for the preservation of the oligarchs' stolen wealth.

But the ultimate universe in Ukraine is the universe of the Ukrainian people, which is quite different from the oligarchic worlds of all colors that we hear so much about. The universe of the Ukrainian people showed its true colors on the maidan, and I believe that the spirit of the maidan will bring an end to all the parallel universes of corrupt oligarchs in Ukraine, be they of Yushchenko or Yanukovych persuasion.

Yes, corrupt oligarchs in Ukraine had their run for 15 years, but it is almost over. Yes, they have robbed the country of all that was bolted down and unbolted. Yes, the national wealth of the country was stolen for a pittance by the likes of the son-in-law of a former president and a shady Donbas oligarch who happens to be the richest man in Ukraine. Today we know this and this knowledge will signal the end of corrupt oligarchic rule in Ukraine. The curtain on their shady deals was lifted by the Orange Revolution and they have no place to hide.

And, with the demise of corrupt oligarchy, the Ukrainian people, in the words of Taras Shevchenko, will find "i sylu i voliu" (power and will) and Ukraine will be no longer be the poor orphan of Europe.

The elections of March of 2006 are on the horizon. Long live the Orange Revolution!

Ihor Lysyj
Austin, Texas

Orange coalition's split is disastrous

Dear Editor:

It was not difficult to see, from day one, that the split in the Orange coalition, made official by the dismissal of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and her Cabinet of Ministers on September 8, is an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine's aspirations to stand on its own feet.

Most of the world's media got it right. A Financial Times' cartoon on September 10 showed a smiling Russian President Vladimir Putin looking at a caricature of Ukraine perforated by corruption and its Orange Revolution leaders in disarray.

The Ukrainian Weekly's reports from Kyiv were accurate and were published very clearly (as they usually are), but the editors' reaction was initially reserved. "The Orange Revolution continues" was the headline on its editorial of September 18. In the same issue, Myron Kuropas counseled: "Don't panic! All is well," with a dismissive remark toward The New York Times and the Financial Times.

But then, on October 14, President Viktor Yushchenko in a four-hour meeting with 30 most prominent businessmen assured them: "The Orange Revolution is over." Perhaps this should dispel the wishful thinking and residual pretending, if any was left.

One month before this declaration, the Ukrainian president's visit to New York and Philadelphia was hugely played up in Ukrainian American publications. The exuberance and photo-ops at the banquet were a once-in-a-lifetime experience. But it is not clear how a lasting hangover can be avoided unless the celebrants don't quite understand what took place in Kyiv. Some quarters on this side of the ocean are still pretending that corruption in Orange circles is mere "gossip," thus demonstrating the power of denial. Being on the wrong page is a major component in the diaspora's vision.

It is difficult to say who in the top echelon in Ukraine by now is not contaminated, if not implicated, in Heorhii Gongadze's murder, directly or indirectly via quid pro quo obligations. A September 16 article in Ukrayinska Pravda (Gongadze's Internet newspaper), "Dishonest Nation Without Just Elite," argues that today's elite in Ukraine has no intention of coming to grips with endemic ethical relativity, the absence of social conscience and the obscene pursuit of wealth, much less with serving "a national idea."

President Yushchenko may still be the best bet for Ukraine - if the optimal achievable goal is a scaled-down version of what had been promised. His latest moves have all but assured no major change in fighting corruption. Mr. Yushchenko's popularity and reputation have plunged precipitously in Ukraine, although for many in the West he is still a hero.

Regretfully, a corollary to the pro-Yushchenko sentiment appears to be denigration of Ms. Tymoshenko on this side of the Atlantic - a sentiment that is at odds with her rising poll numbers in Ukraine.

The former prime minister's eloquent televised statement commenting on her dismissal, but avoiding disparagement of the president, gave her another boost. Its effect is compared by some to that of Richard Nixon's "Checkers Speech." President Yushchenko, in contrast, mishandled his response on September 13 with a personal attack against Ms. Tymoshenko.

Taras Szmagala Jr. posed a rhetorical question in his column on October 24: "Was it a good move to dismiss his popular prime minister whose incredible ego and individual magnetism threatened to create a cult of personality that many thought to be threatening to Ukraine's fledging democracy?" The fitting answer (and not the pre-packaged response contained within Mr. Szmagala's question) seems to be that the president could not afford to have an investigation of corruption allegations in his circle - something that Ms. Tymoshenko's allies demanded.

And perhaps he could not tolerate any longer the iron lady's "magnetism," despite her stalwart loyalty, because Ms. Tymoshenko, a woman, had leadership stamina that surpassed his own. Indeed, it should be pointed out that many observers are of the opinion that the Orange Revolution would not have succeeded without Ms. Tymoshenko.

During the petrol squeeze in May the prime minister insisted that Ukraine needs to increase its oil refining capacity, which is palpably true. Her plan to do that, with a new refinery on line in 18 months, was blocked in the National Security and Defense Council and assailed in Moscow. The president publicly humiliated Ms. Tymoshenko for criticizing Russia's petrol pricing monopoly, and he stressed his confidence in the infallibility of markets - all of which was pure rhetoric. Russian oil and gas prices in Ukraine are strongly influenced by political overtones and negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, with Ukraine having significant leverage over gas pipeline transit fees paid by Russia. Each side cries foul from time to time.

The president gained no points with foreign investors for chastising Ms. Tymoshenko. He then slammed her minister of the economy for voicing his opposition to joining the Russian-dominated Single Economic Space (SES), and said that Ukraine will join, albeit with some conditions. It is remarkable how quickly Mr. Yushchenko adopted this position. After all, it took his predecessor, Leonid Kuchma, five years to reach the same view regarding the SES.

With the collapse of the Orange coalition, Ukraine's prospects of joining the European Union or NATO have dimmed to almost nil. The pull into Russia's orbit is likely to grow stronger.

Eric Margolis, the savvy Toronto Sun foreign correspondent writes that the second act worthy of Italian opera is under way - in which "the exquisite Yulia" will not fade.

Boris Danik
North Caldwell, N.J.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The letter writer refers to our editorial of September 18, "The Orange Revolution continues." That editorial argued that "reports of the Orange Revolution's death have been greatly exaggerated" and noted that the people of Ukraine and with them Ukraine "have been inalterably transformed" by the revolution.

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