Latest polls show Yushchenko bloc slipping to third in public support (11/13/05)

Latest polls show Yushchenko bloc slipping to third in public support

by Zenon Zawada
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - President Viktor Yushchenko's split with former Orange Revolution ally Yulia Tymoshenko has not only plundered his party's potential but may also pave the way for Viktor Yanukovych to become Ukraine's next prime minister, according to a poll released on October 31.

Of 2,400 Ukrainians surveyed in late October, 20.7 percent would vote for the Party of the Regions and 17.7 percent would vote for the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, according to a poll conducted by Kyiv's Socio-Vymir Center for Sociological and Political Research.

Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine People's Union finished in third place, with 17.2 percent support.

The party or bloc winning the most seats will have the most influence selecting Ukraine's next prime minister, whose ratification will need a majority vote in the Verkhovna Rada.

"We have a situation where Tymoshenko and Yanukovych have the better chance to become Ukraine's next prime minister," said Dr. Serhii Taran, the center's chair, who earned his doctorate at Duke University. "Against the background of Ukraine's 'orangization,' it would be very interesting to see Yanukovych become prime minister."

Before Mr. Yushchenko's decision to part ways with Ms. Tymoshenko, their united Our Ukraine bloc was the dominant political force in Ukrainian politics.

What has emerged in Ukraine's current political landscape is that three parties each dominate a region, said Volodymyr Polokhalo, the center's academic director and editor of the website Politychna Dumka, formerly a magazine.

The Party of Regions still enjoys immense popularity in the eastern and southern oblasts, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc has emerged as the favorite in Ukraine's central oblasts, and the Our Ukraine People's Union party commands western Ukraine.

As a result, Ukraine lacks a single national party, Mr. Polokhalo said.

"These regional parties can't attempt to monopolize the whole political arena," he said. "Ukraine has sentenced itself to the impossibility of returning to (former President Leonid) Kuchma's authoritarianism. There is no single force that could become a political oligarch, as what happened in Belarus or Russia."

Instead, the Party of the Regions has largely monopolized eastern oblasts such as Donetsk and Kharkiv, where it received 51.5 percent support, according to the poll.

Therefore, Mr. Yushchenko is largely competing with Ms. Tymoshenko, Mr. Polokhalo said.

"There is no competition between the Party of the Regions and the Our Ukraine People's Union," he said. "In those regions where Yanukovych has high electoral potential, Yushchenko is not competitive. If you speak about the central regions, Yanukovych is not competitive there."

In Ukraine's political system, parties or blocs compete in the parliamentary elections. A bloc, or a faction, is a collection of political parties.

Ukraine's other parties have been significantly marginalized. As a result of constitutional reforms, a party or bloc needs to obtain at least 3 percent of the national vote in order to have a presence in the Rada.

Only three other political parties or blocs will be able to make the 3 percent margin, according to the poll.

They are Volodymyr Lytvyn's People's Party of Ukraine, the Communist Party of Ukraine and Oleksander Moroz's Socialist Party of Ukraine.

While it currently has the most seats in the Verkhovna Rada, the Communist Party received only 4.4 percent support in the poll, revealing that it is gradually becoming a marginal player in Ukrainian politics.

Moreover, Communist Party Chairman Petro Symonenko was the only political figure who had a negative rating in all six regions polled.

"The Communists are the only party that has some ideas for these elections and some ideological doctrine," Dr. Taran said. "However, neither ideas nor doctrines are popular on the market today, but leaders. Symonenko is not a ratings figure."

Despite the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko split, pro-Western forces will likely dominate the Verkhovna Rada for the first time in Ukraine's post-Soviet history, the poll revealed.

Though Mr. Yushchenko's popularity has declined, Mr. Taran said, those parties represented on the maidan (Independence Square) received 40 percent support in the poll.

The maidan vote is divided between "the maidan of Moroz, the maidan ideas of Tymoshenko, the maidan ideas of Yushchenko and the maidan ideas of Pora," Dr. Taran said.

"We have a lack of faith in our leaders, but at the same time, citizens in general so far support their ideas," he said. "And this fact confirms that the people were standing on the maidan not for leaders, but for those principles whose foundations were laid on the maidan and those ideas defended there."

Despite the disappointment in the Orange Revolution's results, Ukrainians will become more active in politics during the 2006 Parliamentary elections, Dr. Taran said.

The revolution revealed to Ukrainians that they can affect their political destiny, he said, which has lured more Ukrainians into politics. Also, Ukrainians enjoy more political freedom now than they did under President Kuchma.

"When we had a semi-authoritarian regime under Kuchma, the whole information sphere affecting citizens was oriented toward preventing them from taking part in politics," Dr. Taran said. "Now politicians are trying to attract people to take a more active role in politics."

The center conducted its survey between October 15 and 25, polling 400 Ukrainians in six regions of Ukraine: Kyiv, Vinnytsia and Poltava oblasts; Lviv oblast; Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; the Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts; and the Odesa Olbast and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

Respondents were asked, "If Verkhovna Rada elections took place today, and the electoral lists consisted of these parties and blocs, for which party or bloc would you vote?" The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent.

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