ANALYSIS: Why did the Rada sack Yekhanurov's Cabinet? (01/22/06)

ANALYSIS

Why did the Rada sack Yekhanurov's Cabinet?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova Report

Opposition groups in Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada on January 10 voted to dismiss the Cabinet of Prime Minister Yurii Yekhanurov, pushing the country into a serious political crisis amid an ongoing parliamentary election campaign. Although the official reason for the no-confidence motion in the government was last week's deal on gas supplies to Ukraine, it appears that the opposition's desire to undermine the electoral chances of pro-government and pro-presidential forces played a no less important role in the vote.

The no-confidence motion in Prime Minister Yekhanurov's Cabinet was backed by 250 lawmakers in the 450-seat legislature, primarily from the Party of the Regions led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, the Social Democratic Party - United, the Communist Party and two groups supporting Verkhovna Rada Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn. Lawmakers from the pro-presidential Our Ukraine caucus and the Socialist Party, which participates in the government, did not vote.

Simultaneously, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution saying that the gas deal concluded by Naftohaz Ukrayiny with Gazprom and the Swiss-based RosUkrEnergo company on January 4 represents a threat to Ukraine's national security.

Under the deal, this year Ukraine is to receive 34 billion cubic meters of gas for $95 per 1,000 cubic meters from RosUkrEnergo, which in its turn is to purchase the gas from Russia's Gazprom, as well as from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Ukrainian lawmakers said in their resolution that the January 4 deal violates previous gas accords between Ukraine and Russia, in particular a 2002 contract between Gazprom and Naftohaz Ukrayiny in which Gazprom obliged itself to supply gas to Ukraine for $50 per 1,000 cubic meters from 2005 to 2009.

The resolution criticizes the Ukrainian government for allowing RosUkrEnergo, an obscure business entity, to become the monopolist of gas supplies to Ukraine. The document also points out that last week's gas deal guarantees the price of $95 per 1,000 cubic meters for Ukraine only for the first six months of 2006, while simultaneously setting a stable tariff for Russian gas transit for five years.

Mr. Yekhanurov, who spoke on the gas deal in the Parliament before the no-confidence vote, argued that it was the best possible compromise under strong pressure from Moscow, which demanded a price of $230 per 1,000 cubic meters. Mr. Yekhanurov also maintained that resorting to international arbitration over the 2002 gas-supply contract with Gazprom and previous intergovernmental gas agreements with Moscow was not a good option for Kyiv, since, he argued, both sides would have to wait for years for a ruling in such a quarrel.

Opposition lawmakers, however, did not heed these arguments and voted Prime Minister Yekhanurov out of his office, simultaneously charging him with the task of a caretaker until a new Cabinet is formed.

But the formation of a new Cabinet may prove to be a tricky task. Under the constitutional reform that took effect on January 1, it is possible for the current legislature to dismiss the current Cabinet but impossible to form a new one. This can by done only by the new composition of the Verkhovna Rada to be elected on March 26.

On the other hand, President Viktor Yushchenko cannot form a new government either, since the constitutional reform in force gives a decisive say in this regard to the Parliament. Mr. Yushchenko said in a statement on January 11 that Mr. Yekhanurov's Cabinet will continue to perform its tasks as if nothing has happened.

If the opposition knew that it is impossible to replace Prime Minister Yekhanurov prior to the parliamentary elections, why did it decide to hold a no-confidence vote in him?

It seems that the primary reason behind the no-confidence vote was to send the strong message to the electorate that President Yushchenko and his government no longer represent the people's interests and that voters should look for other depositors of their political hopes.

However, it is not presently obvious that the no-confidence vote can improve the electoral chances of major opposition forces. Mr. Yekhanurov said the move against his Cabinet is likely to improve the standing of the pro-presidential camp in the elections since, he asserted, Ukrainians are rather prone to take the side of a wronged party in quarrels - in this case, the government.

As for Ms. Tymoshenko, the no-confidence vote - which can be seen as an apt act of revenge for her September 2005 dismissal by President Yushchenko from the post of prime minister - may even harm her election chances.

After her split with the president, Ms. Tymoshenko began to claim that it is her bloc, not Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine, that preserves the true ideals of the 2004 Orange Revolution. It seems that she will find it much harder to ingrain this conviction in voters now, after she sided with the Party of the Regions and the Communist Party - firm opponents of the Orange Revolution - in the anti-Yushchenko vote on January 10.

What seems to be perfectly clear after January 10 is that Ms. Tymoshenko, who until recently remained relatively neutral in her public attitudes toward President Yushchenko, has finally decided to take a path of war against him. Therefore, one should expect more anti-Yushchenko moves and statements from her side in the election campaign.

Second, the January 10 vote appears to indicate that one cannot exclude any governing alliance in Ukraine after the March 26 elections - be it between Ms. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yanukovych or between Messrs. Yanukovych and Yushchenko, or once again between Mr. Yushchenko and Ms. Tymoshenko. The stakes in the elections are extremely high, and what now can be seen as improbable and unthinkable may become an act of political expediency after three months.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus and Ukraine specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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