Uncertainty about parliamentary coalition is uppermost in Ukrainian voters' minds (03/26/06)

Uncertainty about parliamentary coalition is uppermost in Ukrainian voters' minds

by Zenon Zawada
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - The final days before parliamentary elections here were marked by questions about the make-up of the parliamentary coalition that will call the shots in Ukraine once a new Verkhovna Rada is seated, as well as concerns that some 1 million voters are at risk of not being able to cast their ballots.

Ihor Popov, chair of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, said that an absence or unreliability of information on voter lists threatens the citizens' ability to vote, especially if they won't have the ability to file a complaint in court, he said.

"The threat also remains that many will have problems voting as a result of disorder or long lines at the polls, which may lead to those declining to participate," Mr. Popov said.

About 20 percent of district election commissions will function with a minimum staff, which threatens their organization, he said, while urging the Ukrainian government to create reserves of workers to fill those commissions that lack a quorum.

Meanwhile, in the week leading up to the March 26 elections, both the Our Ukraine and the Yulia Tymoshenko blocs smothered the maidan (Independence Square) and the Khreschatyk with dozens of campaign tent stands in attempt to lay claim as the successor political force to the Orange Revolution.

The result is a sea of orange and white tents representing the competing blocs.

Five scenarios have emerged for the post-election situation, according to a senior Western diplomat speaking in on background Kyiv.

The most likely outcome is the Our Ukraine Bloc forming a coalition with the Party of the Regions. However, President Viktor Yushchenko stands to lose an enormous amount of support and credibility with this scenario.

Our Ukraine may also be able to renew an Orange coalition with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Socialist Party of Ukraine. Or Yulia Tymoshenko might unite with the Party of the Regions.

While Mr. Yushchenko has not ruled out forming a coalition with any political bloc, Ms. Tymoshenko has said she will never unite with the Party of the Regions.

Political chaos may also ensue. It is possible that no coalition will be formed and President Yushchenko will then call for a repeat election. Or any coalition that is formed could fall apart within months.

Finally, in the least likely of scenarios, the Party of the Regions could win a large enough number of votes that it won't have to form a coalition.

The U.S. government is prepared to work with any government that is formed, and would have worked with President Viktor Yanukovych had he won the 2004 presidential elections fairly, the senior diplomat said. Mr. Yanukovych understands that Ukraine is now different, and has effectively tailored his image and strengthened his electorate with the help of U.S. political consultants.

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