Choice of coalition partners seen as impacting Ukraine's future (04/23/06)

Choice of coalition partners seen as impacting Ukraine's future

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

WASHINGTON - While the recent parliamentary election demonstrated that voter preferences have shifted within the Orange Coalition since the 2004 elections, Ukraine's overall political landscape has remained the same, according to two experts on Ukraine.

Taras Kuzio and Jan Maksymiuk told an RFE/RL audience in Washington on April 12 that President Viktor Yushchenko faces a difficult decision in choosing coalition partners - a choice that will determine Ukraine's foreign and domestic trajectory.

Mr. Maksymiuk, RFE/RL analyst for Ukraine and Belarus, said that the surprise winner of the election was former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose party tallied 5.6 million votes nationwide - up from 2 million in 2004.

In contrast, he said that Mr. Yushchenko's support decreased significantly from 2004. According to Mr. Maksymiuk, Ms. Tymoshenko, was perceived by the electorate as more committed to the ideals of the Orange Revolution than Mr. Yushchenko.

Dr. Kuzio, a professor of Russian and Eurasian studies at George Washington University, agreed, tracing the roots of this perception to September 2005, when President Yushchenko relieved Ms. Tymoshenko of her duties as prime minister and, in order to secure Parliament's confirmation of his choice to replace Ms. Tymoshenko, signed an agreement with opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych.

Both Dr. Kuzio and Mr. Maksymiuk noted that geography, more than ideology, defines Ukraine's political landscape. The oblasts in which parties associated with the Orange Revolution dominate can be found in Ukraine's western and central regions, including Kyiv, while the "blue" regions aligned with Mr. Yanukovych are located in the south and east of the country.

Mr. Yushchenko, according to Mr. Maksymiuk, faces an unenviable dilemma: "One coalition is bad, the other is worse." Mr. Maksymiuk said Mr. Yushchenko could partner with Ms. Tymoshenko, who has personality conflicts with some of Mr. Yushchenko's ministers and who may insist on returning as prime minister. By doing so, she would position herself as a rival to Mr. Yushchenko in the 2009 presidential elections.

By contrast, a partnership between Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych may lead to a worse result and, according to Dr. Kuzio, "the end of Yushchenko's political career." One potential consequence of partnering with Mr. Yanukovych, according to Dr. Kuzio, is that talks on NATO accession could be derailed. Furthermore, Dr. Kuzio said that such a coalition would compromise Ukraine's relationship with the United States and the European Union.

Though both analysts endorsed Ms. Tymoshenko as the optimal coalition partner, neither ventured to speculate what President Yushchenko's decision would be.

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