NEWS AND VIEWS: The conclusion of Part I of the Orange Revolution (05/28/06)

NEWS AND VIEWS

The conclusion of Part I of the Orange Revolution

Damian Kolodiy, a young film-maker from New Jersey who recently completed his documentary about the Orange Revolution, traveled to Ukraine at the time of the parliamentary elections. Upon his return to the United States in late April, he wrote the following observations about where Ukraine is today, 16 months after the Orange Revolution that brought Viktor Yushchenko to the presidency of Ukraine.

by Damian Kolodiy

I arrived in Kyiv on March 19 on my fourth visit to Ukraine in a little over a year. In my first trip I had documented the massive Orange Revolution street demonstrations, and now I had returned with a Ukrainian-language documentary of those events, with the goal of showing the film on television in Ukraine.

Quickly after landing, I began to go through my list of contacts, announcing my arrival and intention of screening the film. Everyone was overwhelmed with the upcoming parliamentary elections, and I soon realized that without having the backing of one of the major political parties, I would not be able to screen my film on television before the elections, when airtime translated into valuable commercial time. I repeatedly heard: "If you had come here a month before elections, the film would have been of great interest to show on TV during the build-up to the elections. Now everyone is busy covering the elections."

I continued plugging away, making contacts and finding somewhere to duplicate more DVDs. Unfortunately, so much of my time was devoted to the film cause that I couldn't videotape much of the political circus around me. Yet, it was unavoidable.

Billboards from every party plastered the city, from the Greens to Ne Tak. At central locations various political parties took turns pitching tents and conducting organized campaign concerts with speeches.

One afternoon, it was the Socialists on the Khreschatyk, with Oleksander Moroz speaking amidst a sea of orange Our Ukraine tents. On Kontraktova Ploscha, the Party of the Regions drew thousands to its rally. That same evening on the maidan (Independence Square), Yulia Tymoshenko had her own large gathering. The next day, just down the street, Natalia Vitrenko voiced her opposition to the government.

I couldn't help but think; this is democracy in action. Everyone had a chance to freely voice their ideas.

I spent the elections observing in Dnipropetrovsk, an industrial business-oriented city in eastern Ukraine. Our local guides were members of the Party of Reforms and Order (PRO). We went to many polling stations, and repeatedly encountered the same problems: some disorganization, long lines and huge amounts of paperwork. The local elections coincided with the national parliamentary elections in which 45 parties were running for Parliament. As a result, it took an average, healthy, well-seeing voter about 10-15 minutes to vote.

This time, however, there was no sense of intimidation or massive fraud. If there had been any sort of falsification in these elections, it would have happened in the vote count, when the final numbers were still being tallied well into the next day. Many people on voting committees were awake for 30 hours or more. It seemed almost inhumane, and certainly could have led to errors in proper vote- counting procedures. I could only think that there must be a more efficient way to conduct the voting process.

The votes came rolling into the Central Election Commission in the ensuing days. The results were at once predictable and surprising. Predictably, the Party of the Regions finished first, with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc a surprising second and Our Ukraine a distant third. The Socialists came fourth. The Communists just made it, while the Natalia Vitrenko Bloc just didn't. Pora/PRO, Volodymyr Lytvyn, Ne Tak, Pliushch/Kostenko, and 30-something others also didn't make the 3 percent threshold.

Pora's 1.5 percent support was quite disappointing, as it had been the most progressively democratic party without any ties to business or oligarchs. I had been in the Pora offices before the elections when work, energy and expectation were the norm. It was sad to go there after the elections and see empty desks and lost faces among many of the young staff.

Disappointment was not limited to those who campaigned. Many Orange Revolution supporters felt just as defeated and disillusioned, many not even caring about the elections, disenchanted about going out to vote. I was surprised at how many folks I met didn't vote based on the fact that they had to travel to their home city, which was not the city where they currently lived.

In Kyiv, almost all my Orange Revolution comrades gave their votes to Ms. Tymoshenko. However it was not a vote of passion and expectation, but one of hollow belief and skeptical hope. In the past year I had seen many former Orange Revolutionaries change from being ready to fight for Viktor Yushchenko with their lives, to disenchantment in the Orange politicians, to spitting on Yushchenko's name. It was largely felt that the Orange Revolution politicians had capitalized off the people and then forgotten about them, caring only about their own interests.

I distinctly remember the night of President Yushchenko's inauguration, when all the people gathered on the maidan for an evening concert. Not one of the major politicians came out to greet or thank the public. I had hoped then that it was not a sign of things to come.

Although Mr. Yushchenko is still somewhat well-liked as a person and believed to be "good," he is seen as a weak puppet president who is influenced by business interests and cannot shake his allegiance to them. It was these businessmen who had largely financed the Orange Revolution - not because they cared about democratic ideals, but because their money was threatened by the Donetsk clan encroaching on their turf.

Many refer to the Orange Revolution as the "millionaires vs. the billionaires." And now that business matters between the clans have seemingly been settled, there seems to be only one threat: Ms. Tymoshenko.

As many know, Ms. Tymoshenko is a PR genius, saying all the right things with more passion, dedication and seeming sincerity than any other politician. The fact that she's given enough thought to coming up with the right answers puts her one step ahead of everyone else. And, in the aftermath of the Orange Revolution, she hasn't lost the faith of the people.

It is shocking that in a year's time Mr. Yushchenko went from the pinnacle of the citizens' faith to the depths of disappointment thanks to a number of horrendous mistakes. It's not that the people expected everything to change overnight, it's that no steps were taken toward that expected change.

The most crippling example was that no one was jailed for vote falsification, which is what prompted the people to come out onto the streets in the first place.

There was a window of opportunity when President Yushchenko had the power to really instill a sense of fear of the law; punishment and a strong hand are something bandits and criminals not only understand, but respect. They realized soon enough that not only could they continue to go about their "business," but that they could enter politics and gain immunity by being elected to Parliament. And that is the situation we have today.

Now, though bitterly skeptical, people still have some sort of faith in Ms. Tymoshenko. Her bloc received almost twice as many votes as Yushchenko's party. She now holds the mantle of the Orange Revolution. Her critics will say she is a dictator and has only her own interests in mind. But I wonder: What politician doesn't? If her personal ambitions partly coincide with the goal of "building a beautiful Ukraine," then she just might be the best answer.

Yes, she comes from the same system of crooks and clans that has been siphoning off Ukraine's wealth. But that's exactly why she is feared - because she is familiar with their methods, and that makes her a most dangerous threat. I believe she is the most likely leader to follow up her words with actions. I saw it when she walked to Parliament with Mr. Yushchenko and when she broke through the police cordon at the Presidential Administration, putting herself on the front lines.

For these parliamentary elections, Ms. Tymoshenko had no TV commercials. Instead, she chose to visit many towns and cities and speak in person. In the end, she's the politician who garnered the most votes from the largest geographical distribution, from both eastern and western Ukraine.

President Yushchenko must now recognize the choice of the people. If he forms a union with the Party of the Regions, his political career is over. Already many are questioning their support of him in the future. Yushchenko faithful believe that he saw something in Ms. Tymoshenko that broke his trust, that proved to him that he could no longer work with her. His critics believe that his loyalty is to Petro Poroshenko and Yevhen Chervonenko, his financial backers who despise Ms. Tymoshenko, and are against Our Ukraine reuniting the Orange coalition.

I wonder: How effective can this coalition be if it is taking so long to form? If they can't agree to agree in the future, then I foresee more wasting of time as rather than working for the good of the country and the people, government officials jostles each other for positions of power. More time will be spent on politicians bickering than working for the goals of Ukraine. It seems that for Ukraine "demokratiya" translates into "svarka" (argument). Neither Ms. Tymoshenko nor Mr. Yushchenko is willing to relinquish personal positions for the good of the country.

The individual choice of voters has been taken away as people can vote only for a party list, on which most of the positions can be base for a nice price. Major reforms are necessary, and I don't think they will come from "playing nice," as President Yushchenko has done to date. He has very little wiggle room to stay politically alive, It's only a matter of time of when Ms. Tymoshenko will steer the country. I believe she's the only one that can re-ignite the hope and passion that captured the world in the fall-winter of 2004. Many in Ukraine have already forgotten that time, or look on it with doubt and dissatisfaction.

And it's the people who are suffering the most, particularly psychologically - something that few politicians there are able to comprehend. The letdown among the general populace today can be felt in everyday interactions, there is a a slip back to pre-revolution apathy. The greatest loss is the faith and goodwill that existed during the Orange Revolution, which had the potential to build a new country. Unfortunately, that rare power has been squandered at the expense of personal ambitions, and I don't believe it can ever be re-gained on the scale that it existed. Thus, the largest victory of the Revolution is now its biggest loss.

On a macro level, democracy is making progress in Ukraine and, in comparison to what had been before the Orange revolution, I believe steps have been taken that are irreversible. Again, time and people, will tell.

Whether it will be five, 10 or 20 years from now, I know that the Orange Revolution was a crucial and pivotal point in Ukraine's modern history. I hope that it will be one event that is remembered in honor as opposed to the solemn remembrances of tragedies that make up so much of Ukraine's history.

* * *

As for my documentary, I feel I have captured the essence of the Orange Revolution from the people's perspective, providing a glimpse into that moment in time when the common Ukrainian became heroic and when all was possible. Even though I did not have a wide screening as I had hoped, I gave a DVD of my film to Ms. Tymoshenko. So I have fulfilled my vow to Ukraine to return with a finished film. Hopefully it can serve as a reminder of what was, and still can be.

Perhaps it can even help the politicians remember their own vows.

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