ANALYSIS

With Parliament divided, Ukraine on brink of chaos

by Roman Kupchinsky
RFE/RL Newsline

With Parliament hopelessly divided into the pro-Russian Party of the Regions aligned with the Socialists against the West-leaning Our Ukraine and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, there are no signs of a viable government on the horizon.

President Viktor Yushchenko is threatening to call new parliamentary elections as he invokes what he called "violations of the Constitution and procedures" in the creation of a new majority in Ukraine's bitterly divided Verkhovna Rada. How serious he is about this is not yet clear, since he himself recently declared his opposition to a fresh ballot. The options, though, are narrowing fast.

Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has no such inhibitions. She told the Christian Science Monitor on July 12 that the Parliament has betrayed its promises to the people and, therefore, is illegitimate. There are two possibilities, she said: either we "become the coalition ourselves, or, if the law allows it, we will definitely be in favor of holding an early election."

Perhaps because it senses public opinion swinging in its favor, the Party of the Regions also is in favor of holding new parliamentary elections. Viktor Yanukovych, the leader of the party, may feel he has a chance now to win a majority in the Verkhovna Rada.

But this could be wishful thinking. The chances are that new parliamentary elections would merely confirm the rifts that so badly divide Ukraine, further alienate the country's long-suffering electorate, and do nothing to bring political compromise any closer.

President Yushchenko is postponing any decision on what to do next by calling on Parliament to elect a new Constitutional Court before he nominates anyone for the position of prime minister. He has also said that any new prime minister must be a moderate with no "business interests." He clearly wants to exclude Mr. Yanukovych but may have in mind Rynat Akhmetov as a compromise candidate. Mr. Akhmetov is the richest and one of the most influential members of the Party of the Regions.

As the political battles in Parliament continue, the government appears rudderless. In the meantime, negotiations have resumed to create an international gas consortium to manage the Ukrainian gas-pipeline system. This consortium would most likely consist of Ukraine, Russia and Germany.

Russia, which earlier this month threatened to increase the price of gas for Ukraine, has apparently decided to wait and see. It may fear that a significant increase in the gas price would show that the pro-Russian Party of the Regions is no more able to influence decisions made in Moscow than President Yushchenko.

In the absence of a strong central government, regional and city councils in eastern Ukraine are challenging the authority of the state. They have refused to obey orders to rescind resolutions making Russian the "second official language" - resolutions that directly contradict the Constitution of Ukraine.

Mr. Yushchenko appears either unable or unwilling to use force to enforce the law and is in danger of losing face with his core support base in western Ukraine. Many there are demanding that he act forcibly to prevent the country from sliding into anarchy. But, as President Yushchenko no doubt fears, a show of force may make matters worse.

Roman Kupchinsky is the editor of RFE/RL Crime and Corruption Watch.

Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, July 23, 2006, No. 30, Vol. LXXIV

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