ANALYSIS: Will Yushchenko dissolve Parliament? (07/30/06)

ANALYSIS

Will Yushchenko dissolve Parliament?

RFE/RL Newsroom

July 26

On July 25, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko faces a critical decision - whether to dissolve the country's Parliament. The deadline comes almost four months to the day after the Verkhovna Rada was first elected. In the interim, the legislature has been hamstrung by political infighting and power plays that have left the country without a government - and without an Orange coalition that would lead Ukraine toward deeper integration with the West.

Mr. Yushchenko has several options at his disposal, and none are particularly pleasant.

As president, Mr. Yushchenko has the constitutional prerogative to dismiss Parliament on July 25 - 60 days after the resignation of the previous Cabinet.

Such a move would break the political deadlock that has paralyzed Parliament since elections were held on March 26.

But it's an unappealing option for Mr. Yushchenko. Polls indicate his Our Ukraine bloc would see its numbers drop even lower than the 13 percent of the vote it took in its third-place finish in March.

Speaking on July 22 in his weekly radio address, President Yushchenko appeared to indicate he would not opt to throw out the Parliament. He was ready, he said, to cooperate with the Verkhovna Rada "for the sake of the country's stability and development."

"The new government will be given an important and difficult task," Mr. Yushchenko said. "It has to keep up the pace of economic development and advance the living standards of our citizens. This can only be achieved by hard work, and only a team of professionals will be able to handle this task. This team should be headed by a person who can give up narrow partisan interests and take responsibility for the country's economic development. I hope for the wisdom of Ukrainian politicians."

The president may also be hoping for a situation that leaves at least some of his political clout intact. He faces unpalatable options even if he chooses to leave the current Parliament in place.

One would be for him to go into the opposition against the so-called Anti-Crisis Coalition led by the pro-Russia Party of the Regions of his political archrival, Viktor Yanukovych. This would leave President Yushchenko largely marginalized by a Parliament with newly enhanced constitutional powers.

Lastly, Mr. Yushchenko could agree to a grand coalition that would ally Our Ukraine with the Party of the Regions. It's a political partnership that was unthinkable two years ago, when the Orange Revolution carried Mr. Yushchenko to victory over a disgraced and discredited Mr. Yanukovych.

Such a decision would ensure a place for Our Ukraine in the new Cabinet. But it would be the final blow for many Orange Revolution supporters who have seen their dreams of Western integration sink alongside President Yushchenko's popularity.

One major player in Ukraine's parliamentary drama is pushing for the president to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada - Yulia Tymoshenko, Mr. Yushchenko's former Orange Revolution ally and prime minister, who had been determined to serve again as prime minister of an Orange coalition linking her eponymous bloc with Our Ukraine and the Socialist Party of Ukraine.

That aspiration died in early July, when the Socialists defected to the Yanukovych-led coalition.

But Ms. Tymoshenko remains a charismatic figure and the self-described keeper of the Orange Revolution flame. For her, fresh elections would be an opportunity to win the votes of Ukrainians disenchanted by President Yushchenko's seemingly lackluster commitment to pro-Western principles.

Ms. Tymoshenko on July 24 tried to press the issue, declaring that deputies from her political bloc will give up their seats in an effort to force the dissolution of Parliament.

"Being aware of the danger of a restoration in Ukraine of a Communist-oligarchic government, and with the aim of providing the president with additional constitutional provisions to call for extraordinary parliamentary elections in Ukraine, we state that we are ready to end our terms as members of the Ukrainian Parliament," Tymoshenko said.

Our Ukraine deputies are unlikely to take Tymoshenko up on her invitation to do the same. Borys Bezpalyi, a member of Yushchenko's faction, described Tymoshenko's initiative as little more than public relations.

If President Yushchenko decides not to dissolve Parliament, his next deadline comes August 2, when he must endorse a candidate for prime minister submitted by Mr. Yanukovych's coalition and return it to parliament for final approval.

Constitutional changes implemented this year took the power to nominate a prime-ministerial candidate away from the president.

The Anti-Crisis Coalition submitted Mr. Yanukovych's candidacy to Mr. Yushchenko on July 18. The Constitution gives the president 15 days to consider the nomination.

A Yanukovych prime ministership will be pleasing for Moscow, which resented Ukraine's pro-Western orientation following the Orange Revolution. Having a Moscow-friendly prime minister may mean a less punishing price rise when Ukraine renegotiates its gas contract with Russia in the autumn.

But the four-month impasse and the failure of the Orange coalition have likely dealt a setback to those in Ukraine who favor NATO and European Union membership.

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