COMMENTARY: Is Ukraine in crisis? (08/06/06)

COMMENTARY

Is Ukraine in crisis?

by Alexander J. Motyl

July 31

If you haven't heard, the sky is falling again. Ukraine, we are told, is in "crisis." That crisis is "permanent" and "recurring," "deep" and "broad." Gosh, you'd think that a country so prone to contradictory evaluations and in such bad shape would fall off the face of the earth any day now.

Except that Ukraine isn't in crisis.

Here's a case of really sloppy word usage affecting our understanding of reality. What's a crisis? It is not a problem, or a very big problem, or even a very, very big problem. Nor is it just shorthand for "mess." Crises, as we know from the medical terminology, are conditions during which a patient's chances of survival are even. If someone or something is in crisis, non-existence is as likely as existence.

Is Ukraine - the country, the state - in crisis? Of course not. Despite the infantile posturing of Ukraine's political elites, life goes on. The vast majority of people in Ukraine are oblivious of goings-on in Kyiv. Are they in crisis? Hardly. The economy is also doing quite well, with the most recent estimates of GDP growth in 2006 being around 5 percent. Not bad for a country in crisis. Is the Ukrainian political elite in crisis? Go ask Roman Zvarych if he's about to sell off his Armani suits. Is the economic elite in crisis? A recent listing by Korrespondent identified 30 millionaires and eight billionaires in Ukraine.

So is no one in crisis in Ukraine? Well, the Socialist Party may be. After Oleksander Moroz bolted from the Orange coalition, that party has split and may indeed be on the verge of collapse. Our Ukraine may also be in crisis, its opportunistic shenanigans having brought it into disrepute and possibly portending an electoral defeat. Anybody else? The presidency may have been weakened and become less legitimate, but it's surely not on the verge of non-existence. The Rada may be deadlocked, but it, too, is likely to be with us for a long time to come.

So why is everyone talking of crisis in Ukraine, if Ukraine isn't really in crisis? Part of the answer lies in the emotive quality of the word. Crisis sounds, well, critical, and everyone wants to be seen making critical comments. Imagine a headline announcing that "Ukraine has big problems." So what else is new?

A larger part of the answer lies in the fact that various political actors in Ukraine have an interest in suggesting that the world is coming to an end.

The Party of the Regions has long insisted that the Orange governments created a "crisis" and that only its rule - via an Anti-Crisis Coalition of course - could and would save the day. Naturally, to the degree that something like a crisis actually exists in Ukraine, it's in large measure due to the crisis-mongering activities of the very Party of the Regions.

Not to be outdone, Yulia Tymoshenko has begun declaring that Ukraine is in crisis, as it would have to be now that her chances of becoming prime minister are close to nil.

The point is that all oppositions always and everywhere accuse incumbents of creating crises. Most of the time, it's just pure blather. Only sometimes are they on the mark. But not this time, at least not with respect to Ukraine.

So if Ukraine isn't in crisis - let's all exhale now - what's going on? I suggest that the more appropriate term is deadlock. That is, Ukraine's political system is deadlocked. It's like a big traffic jam at the height of rush hour in New York City. Everyone's stuck in the intersection, and everyone's blowing their horn. The result is a mess, but it's a mess that will end. Traffic jams always do. We know that - at least those of us who drive and have some sense of perspective.

Why do traffic jams end? Because drivers, even hot and tired and angry ones, want them to end. Sooner or later, they adjust their behaviors, and the traffic starts flowing again - even if a fist fight or two and some yelling matches have broken out. More important, traffic jams are learning experiences. They teach us what to do and what not to do to avoid them. They also teach us how to get out of them. Ironically, traffic jams teach us to be better drivers.

So do political traffic jams. Ukraine's policy-makers are learning how to live with one another. The process is painful, and embarrassing, to watch - but they are learning. Indeed, since Ukraine's traffic jams are taking place within a formally democratic context - think of democracy as Ukraine's traffic rules - Ukraine's policy-makers are actually learning democracy and learning how to be democrats.

Driving in New York isn't easy. Neither is democracy. Only declaring a crisis is.

Alexander J. Motyl is professor of political science at Rutgers University - Newark.

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