NEWS ANALYSIS: What kind of democracy can Ukraine become? (08/06/06)

NEWS ANALYSIS: What kind of democracy can Ukraine become?

by Andrew Nynka

President Viktor Yushchenko's nomination of Viktor Yanukovych for the position of prime minister on August 3 is a move of great political irony. On Thursday, August 3, the president spoke of Mr. Yanukovych - the president's rival during the Orange Revolution and a major stumbling block to his goal of moving Ukraine into European institutions - saying that his nomination could unite Ukraine.

"I ask people to understand that we have a unique chance about which we talked on Independence Square, about which we dreamed," Mr. Yushchenko said. "Today, great ideas must unite us for the prosperity of Ukraine. We have a historical chance."

Not only is Mr. Yanukovych's nomination disturbing, considering that a year ago the two men were archrivals; it gives the impression of schizophrenia and instability in Ukrainian government. Prior to the nomination, the Verkhovna Rada spent months trying to cobble together a majority and subsequently create a government capable of running the country.

However, long-time political observers know that, in Ukraine, truly anything is possible. Political stalemate, party infighting and betrayals, even fist fights, are common Rada occurrences.

Within the context of Ukrainian politics, these events are not shocking. But in a much broader context, Ukraine risks losing - and perhaps already has lost - the valuable credibility it gained as a result of the Orange Revolution. Mr. Yushchenko, for his part, at least seems to recognize this.

"Ukraine is facing a serious threat of isolation as some local political forces want to put an end to democracy and democratic reforms in the country," President Yushchenko said during a July 24 meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Borys Tarasyuk on July 24, according to media reports.

For a brief period, in the winter of 2004, it looked as though Ukraine had gained the admiration and support of Western democracies and powerful trans-Atlantic organizations. Foreign heads of state referred to it as an example of a burgeoning democracy. Even the mainstream press, which is often criticized for ignoring Ukraine, could no longer overlook the country.

Ukraine and the Orange Revolution captured the world's attention, and in its aftermath came a moment of opportunity for Ukraine to show the world that it could be a player in European politics, economics and foreign affairs. That's not to say Ukraine had already accomplished these things, but it had the world's attention, which, in turn, meant an opportunity to move forward.

In the aftermath of the revolution, skeptics questioned the foundation of the Orange Revolution - a vocal press, an active political opposition and a mobilized mass of people. Could that foundation last until the next national elections, or even longer?

The 2006 Verkhovna Rada elections were seen as a yardstick to gauge whether the country's democratic foundation was truly well-constructed or whether, facing a similar strain in the future, it would crumble.

"The Orange Revolution did give Ukraine democracy, and that is another great achievement. The purpose was never to banish half the country but rather to raise democratic and ethical standards in the whole country, and that process appears to be under way," said Anders Aslund, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington.

"Hardly anybody can doubt Ukraine's nationhood today. It has proven itself, and that is a great achievement," Dr. Aslund said, adding that the country's economic policy also was of concern, and the democratic formation of a government was a current concern.

Democracy in Ukraine is no fluke, nor is it fleeting, analysts and scholars widely agree. The parliamentary elections in March were hailed for being robust, free and fair, and never before had the press been given such latitude to pursue stories.

The question now is not whether democracy will take hold in Ukraine. Rather, the question is: What kind of a democracy can Ukraine become?

It can languish on the periphery of influence, disregarded and distrusted by the world, as plutocratic politicians and parties squabble for power and the opportunity to do the other in.

On the other hand, Ukraine has had its share of moral, noble and courageous leaders - men and women who bore great personal hardships to do right for their country. Were such people to rise up now and lead Ukraine, it could resemble what the Orange Revolutionaries had in mind.

Unfortunately, if recent history is any judge, the next few months will likely bring more of the squabbling and infighting.

Andrew Nynka is a former editorial staffer of The Ukrainian Weekly (2001-2006). He served also as the paper's Kyiv correspondent at the time of the Orange Revolution.

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