Turning the pages back... August 22, 2004 (08/20/06)

Turning the pages back...

August 22, 2004

An article that appeared two years ago in The Weekly analyzed what Ukrainians thought about then-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. This perspective was prior to the presidential elections and Orange Revolution of 2004.

According to the article, two main factors that contributed to the candidacy of Mr. Yanukovych were his considerable support in eastern Ukraine and his potential to pull left-wing voters that would have voted against Viktor Yushchenko.

It was further predicted that if the two factors played out, a return to the 1994 Kuchma-Kravchuk election would result, in which Leonid Kuchma appealed to eastern Ukrainians and Leonid Kravchuk to the western and central voters. Mr. Kravchuk lost votes from the left, who saw him as a "nationalist." However, in the second round, voters would have a more clear-cut decision: vote for the "vlada" (the authorities in power) or for a reformer.

Volodymyr Lytvyn, the former Verkhovna Rada chairman, commented that Mr. Yanukovych's chances would be greater if he was a "self-declared" candidate similar to Mr. Yushchenko, rather than the anointed candidate of the outgoing administration.

The article continued by noting that, due to the hostility toward the Kuchma regime, Mr. Yanukovych would likely lose votes from other parties that do not support the administration of the time. A Razumkov Center poll that appeared in Zerkalo Nedeli supported this speculation, with 26 percent of Communists reportedly voting for Mr. Yanukovych.

Further data from the Razumkov Center that appeared in Zerkalo Nedeli said that leading Ukrainian political experts were negative about Mr. Yanukovych's stance on European relations. This was based on speeches by Mr. Yanukovych in which he stressed economic growth and development, but remained silent on promoting democratic initiatives.

In another report by the Razumkov Center, analysts argued that, "Oligarchs by their very nature are incompatible with democratization and are not influenced by societal interests." When asked which candidates would defend society and put Ukraine's interests ahead of their clans, the center found Oleksander Moroz at the top of the list, followed by Mr. Yushchenko. Similarly, when asked who they felt were "professional" and had "intellect," Mr. Yushchenko came first, followed by Mr. Moroz.

In these same polls, Mr. Yanukovych was placed at the bottom of both lists. As the head of "the party of power" of Ukraine's most criminalized and wealthiest clan, based in Donetsk, his election would be catastrophic. Michael Brodsky, leader of the Yabluko Party, told Ukrainska Pravda that Mr. Yanukovych's election could lead to "the threat of a criminal-bandit revolt."

Source: "What do Ukrainians really think of Yanukovych," by Taras Kuzio, The Ukrainian Weekly, August 22, 2004, Vol. LXII, No. 34.

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