ANALYSIS: Yushchenko's Our Ukraine considers opposition option (10/15/06)

ANALYSIS

Yushchenko's Our Ukraine considers opposition option

by Oleg Varfolomeyev
Eurasia Daily Monitor

The Our Ukraine bloc of six right-of-center parties, which supports President Viktor Yushchenko, has withdrawn from talks on joining the government coalition with the Party of the Regions (PRU), the Socialists and the Communists.

Roman Bezsmertnyi, the formal leader of Our Ukraine (OU), announced that it would be going into the opposition and that its ministers should quit the Cabinet of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. This decision was prompted by the protracted tug-of-war over powers between Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych as well as by the refusal of the would-be partners to base a grand coalition on the Universal of National Unity that was signed by the leaders of the four parties in early August at President Yushchenko's request.

Despite OU's decision to be in the opposition, the ministers representing it are reluctant to quit Mr. Yanukovych's Cabinet. This reflects both Mr. Yushchenko's indecision and the artificial character of OU, especially its core component, the Our Ukraine People's Union (OUPU), whose members place loyalty to Mr. Yushchenko above affiliation with the party.

Talks on a grand coalition started well before August 3, when the national unity declaration was signed, and they intensified in September, when Parliament re-convened after summer vacation. Quite soon it became clear that the PRU, which dominates the government coalition that was formed in July, does not intend to drop the Communists from the alliance. OU hoped for that, as the Communists - their main ideological adversaries - had signed the August 3 declaration with reservations, indicating that most of President Yushchenko's strategic goals were unacceptable for them, such as European Union and NATO integration and making Ukrainian the only national language not only de jure, but also de facto.

Later on, the more radical elements of OU started to suspect that the PRU was using the Communists' ideological opposition to OU only as a pretext for dragging their feet over a final agreement in order to secure more concessions from Mr. Yushchenko.

Our Ukraine eventually lost patience. Mr. Bezsmertnyi stated on October 2 that the talks would be stopped if the Universal of National Unity is not used as the foundation of the would-be grand coalition. On October 3 the OUPU council accused Mr. Yanukovych of ignoring the declaration and authorized Mr. Bezsmertnyi to stop the talks if the PRU and its satellites continue to reject their conditions.

On October 4 President Yushchenko, returning from a visit to Germany, again urged the sides to base a new coalition on the declaration. This request was again flatly rejected by the Communists at a meeting among the leaders of the four parties, including Mr. Yanukovych, and later on the same day Mr. Bezsmertnyi announced that Our Ukraine was moving into the opposition to Prime Minister Yanukovych and would recall its ministers from his Cabinet.

Mr. Bezsmertnyi's statement initially was not taken seriously. Mr. Yanukovych and Socialist leader Oleksander Moroz urged a continuation of the talks, and Mr. Yanukovych dismissed Mr. Bezsmertnyi's statement as too emotional. Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko suggested that the OU had only tried to scare Mr. Yanukovych and planned to continue the talks anyway. Mr. Yushchenko still continues to believe, judging by his recent statements, that all the bridges have not yet been burned. There are signs that Mr. Yushchenko may distance himself from the OUPU - the party that Mr. Bezsmertnyi constructed at his request in early 2005 - and continue to insist on a grand coalition. The new head of Mr. Yushchenko's Presidential Secretariat, Viktor Baloha, told a press conference on October 6 that Mr. Yushchenko may quit as OUPU honorary chairman. He also said that Mr. Yushchenko is equally distant from all political parties.

On October 6 Mr. Bezsmertnyi urged Our Ukraine representatives to quit the Cabinet. This, however, has not been met with enthusiasm by those concerned - Justice Minister Roman Zvarych, Family, Youth and Sports Minister Yurii Pavlenko, Culture Minister Ihor Likhovyi and Health Minister Yurii Poliachenko.

Only Foreign Affairs Minister Borys Tarasyuk - who leads OU's Rukh Party, which has probably been the least keen on continuing the coalition talks - reportedly indicated that he would quit the Cabinet because the talks failed. But Mr. Tarasyuk does not formally have to do so, as he was appointed to the Cabinet not on Our Ukraine's, but on Mr. Yushchenko's presidential quota. The other minister appointed on Mr. Yushchenko's quota - Defense Minister Anatolii Hrytsenko - made it clear that he would not resign unless President Yushchenko asked him to do so.

On October 9 Our Ukraine's press service quoted Mr. Bezsmertnyi as saying that all those who do not agree with the decision to go into the opposition to Mr. Yanukovych should quit OU. He said that all bridges have been burned, as the parties comprising OU had decided that there would be no more grand coalition talks.

It remains to be seen whether OU will start to build bridges with Ms. Tymoshenko to build a united opposition. The Ukrainian media have been circulating a rumor that President Yushchenko may appoint her secretary of the National Security and Defense Council and try to make this body a counterbalance to the Yanukovych Cabinet.

Sources: ICTV, October 2; Delo, October 3; UT1, October 4; Channel 5, October 4-9; Obkom.net.ua, Delovaya Stolitsa, October 9.

The article above is reprinted from Eurasia Daily Monitor with permission from its publisher, the Jamestown Foundation, www.jamestown.org.

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