ANALYSIS: Pro-presidential bloc goes into opposition (10/29/06)

ANALYSIS

Pro-presidential bloc goes into opposition

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

Our Ukraine has announced that it is switching to the opposition and pulling its ministers out of the government. Our Ukraine leader Roman Bezsmertnyi said in the Verkhovna Rada on October 17 that his bloc's decision to go into opposition was caused by its disagreement with policies pursued by the ruling coalition of the Party of the Regions, the Socialist Party and the Communist Party, which is often referred to as an Anti-Crisis Coalition.

"In the past two months we witnessed a break in Ukraine's domestic and foreign course that was supported by the Ukrainian people during the election of President Viktor Yushchenko. Integration with the World Trade Organization is being ruined, programs of cooperation between Ukraine and the [European Union] have actually been halted," Mr. Bezsmertnyi said.

Mr. Bezsmertnyi called on opposition parties, both within and outside the Verkhovna Rada, to set up a "confederation" to support the pro-European course championed by President Yushchenko.

"Regarding our proposals in today's situation, we call on opposition forces in Parliament and outside Parliament to form a European Ukraine [opposition alliance] as a confederation, to work out an action plan that would be aimed at creating an alternative to the actions of the Anti-Crisis Coalition and the current government," he said. Mr. Bezsmertnyi did not say a single word about Our Ukraine's relations with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (YTB), its former ally in the 2004 Orange Revolution. Both blocs split in September 2005 because of their failure to co-exist in a coalition government. And they suffered an even worse failure while trying to form a new coalition after the March parliamentary elections.

The YTB announced the creation of an "interfactional" opposition association in the Verkhovna Rada last month and made former Prime Minister Tymoshenko its leader. So far Ms. Tymoshenko has managed to attract only two defectors from the Socialist Party to this opposition alliance.

Meanwhile, YTB National Deputy Anatolii Semynoha told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service that he and his colleagues will readily welcome Our Ukraine lawmakers among their ranks. "Our position is comprehensible. We formed an interfactional opposition union, which has been joined by some Socialists. We are inviting Our Ukraine as well. I think that it is necessary for them to join [this union] and start working today without inventing a bicycle [anew]," he said.

However, judging by Mr. Bezsmertnyi's announcement on October 17, Our Ukraine is set to reformat the configuration of opposition groups in Ukraine according to its own taste rather than join the Ms. Tymoshenko-led group.

Our Ukraine National Deputy Viacheslav Koval told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service that his party has not yet made a final decision on how to proceed in the opposition. "There has been no decision on whether to create a confederation or not. But perhaps [such a confederation] is a way for attracting parties outside Parliament and creating a powerful opposition. However, this needs to be discussed," he said.

But the chances that Our Ukraine might get together with the YTB once again, let alone recognize Ms. Tymoshenko's leading role in the opposition, are very slim.

Where do these opposition maneuvers leave President Yushchenko? Mr. Yushchenko said on October 18 that the five ministers delegated to the Yanukovych Cabinet by Our Ukraine should step down in order to be consistent with the position of their bloc. They submitted their resignations to the Verkhovna Rada on October 19, but later the same day Internal Affairs Minister Yurii Lutsenko changed his mind and said he will remain in the Cabinet.

If Prime Minister Yanukovych replaces these ministers with people from his party, President Yushchenko will lose a considerable leverage tool in the government. In such a case there will be only two pro-Yushchenko ministers in the Cabinet: Foreign Affairs Minister Borys Tarasyuk and Defense Minister Anatolii Hrytsenko, who were appointed directly by the president.

But Mr. Yanukovych may decide against such a solution. There have already been proposals from the Party of the Regions to give President Yushchenko the right to fill these five ministerial posts with "non-party professionals."

This seems to be a coldly calculated gesture of goodwill toward the president whose powers have been significantly trimmed in favor of the legislature and the prime minister by a constitutional reform enforced in January.

The Anti-Crisis Coalition falls 60 votes short of the 300 votes required to override a presidential veto over legislation. Therefore, by giving President Yushchenko the right to nominate more ministers to the Cabinet, Prime Minister Yanukovych may want the president to share responsibility for the cabinet's decisions, despite the withdrawal of the pro-presidential Our Ukraine from it.

In other respects, however, the failure of the Orange Revolution camp to form a ruling coalition after the March elections could spell big trouble for Mr. Yushchenko. Mr. Yanukovych is firmly set to take away as many prerogatives from the president as constitutional loopholes will allow him.

Mr. Yanukovych has recently refused to implement several presidential decrees, arguing that they were not co-signed by him, as stipulated by the Constitution. He is also questioning in the Constitutional Court President Yushchenko's right to appoint oblast administration chairs without coordination with the government.

In addition, pro-Yanukovych oblast councilors reportedly passed no-confidence motions against more than 70 oblast or district administration heads. Mr. Yanukovych is demanding their dismissal, arguing that under the Constitution a no-confidence vote supported by two-thirds of lawmakers is sufficient to oblige the president to sack the head of a district or oblast administration.

Thus, having taken a firm grip on the central government, Mr. Yanukovych now appears to be determined to dismantle the network of presidential loyalists in the regions.

Could such a turn of events push Our Ukraine and the YTB toward reassessing their positions regarding each other? YTB National Deputy Semynoha believes that it may. "Regarding the opposition and its future, I am convinced that there is no other scenario for Our Ukraine than actually joining the united opposition in the Verkhovna Rada and jointly building democracy in our state," he said. "If they fail to do it today, they will do it later. Time, voters and necessity in our situation will simply force them to do it."

But Ukrainian voters will have the chance to discipline their politicians no earlier than in 2009 and 2011, when the country will hold presidential and parliamentary elections, respectively.

Therefore, in the short term, Ukraine will most likely witness confrontation not only between the government and the opposition represented by the YTB and Our Ukraine, but also between the opposition blocs themselves.

RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service contributed to this report.

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