With the European Union now in flux, its attention to Ukraine waning and some members anxious to remove sanctions against Russia, and with the outgoing Obama administration apparently itching to implement the Minsk agreements no matter the cost to Ukraine, including elections in the Donbas (see analyses on pages 2 and 3), it came as a relief that the NATO summit focused on the continuing Russian aggression.
The Warsaw Summit Final Communiqué emphasized: “Russia’s aggressive actions, including provocative military activities in the periphery of NATO territory and its demonstrated willingness to attain political goals by the threat and use of force, are a source of regional instability, fundamentally challenge the Alliance, have damaged Euro-Atlantic security, and threaten our longstanding goal of a Europe whole, free and at peace.” Acting on those threats, NATO will be deploying four multinational battalion-size combat groups in Central and Eastern Europe, and it will enhance its presence in the Black Sea region.
Furthermore the joint statement of the NATO-Ukraine Commission called on Russia “to reverse its illegal and illegitimate self-declared ‘annexation’ of the Crimean peninsula” (this, while many in the West have simply forgotten about Crimea and given it up for lost) and expressed “strong support for the full implementation of the Minsk agreements.” The document noted that elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions should be held “as soon as security conditions allow” and “based on Ukrainian law, in accordance with relevant OSCE standards.” The commission also reiterated its “firm commitment to further develop the Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine.”
It is noteworthy that, on the eve of the NATO summit, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko had written in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal: “Russia has been deliberately inciting instability wherever it can, hoping to divide the West and advance its own geopolitical agenda. …Russia’s aggression on the eastern flank of NATO territory is an aggression not only against Ukraine, but the Western world. …We are grateful for the support the West has given us so far. NATO has held firm in its stance against Russia’s aggression in Crimea and Donbas, and continues to support the building of a strong army and a successful democratic state. …” However, he continued, the “reactive strategy” of “imposing sanctions after violations have taken place, has largely exhausted itself.” Mr. Poroshenko argued that, “Only a deeper partnership between NATO and Ukraine will foster stability in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Black Sea region and the trans-Atlantic area as a whole. NATO’s support is a necessary part of the solution for defense and security threats in Ukraine.” He underscored that “there is little value in talks with a negotiating partner who thinks in terms of geopolitical ambitions rather than saving human lives, and who shows no respect for legal commitments on his part.”
NATO, it appears, has heard Ukraine, elevating it to top priority. In fact, when the NATO-Russia Council, which had been suspended for two years after Russia’s Crimea grab, met on July 13, “Ukraine was the first item on our agenda,” according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. He reported that the allies and Russia “have profound and persistent disagreements on the crisis” in Ukraine, stating bluntly: “There was not a meeting of minds today.”
It must be noted that the NATO meetings took place in the wake of Britain’s “Brexit” vote as a result of which, as many observers have said, the European Union is losing one of the staunchest supporters of sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine and one of the EU’s most pro-Ukraine members. Clearly, Vladimir Putin is pleased that the EU’s unity is wobbly and that sanctions fatigue is growing. It all fits into his plan of destabilizing the West.
Thankfully, NATO – with a renewed relevance – appears ready to step up to the plate.