“The Geopolitical Divorce of the Century: Why Putin Cannot Afford to Let Ukraine Go,” by Peter Dickinson, Ukraine Alert blog, Atlantic Council, September 18 (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-geopolitical-divorce-of-the-century-why-putin-cannot-afford-to-let-ukraine-go):
…Ukrainian businesses have begun to discover life after Russia. In 2017 alone, Ukraine-EU trade grew by almost a quarter and India emerged as the largest international market for Ukrainian agricultural exports. On the domestic front, American companies are replacing longstanding Russian partners. The first General Electric locomotive engines recently arrived in Ukraine, while the country’s Soviet era aviation flagship Antonov is now working with Boeing.
Increasing international mobility is making it much easier for ordinary Ukrainians to look beyond Russia. The advent of visa-free EU travel for Ukrainian passport holders in summer 2017 is transforming attitudes toward the rest of Europe and helping Ukrainians to shed the psychological shackles that long kept the country penned inside the narrow confines of the post-Soviet world. …
Millions of Ukrainians have turned their backs on the Russian Orthodox Church since the outbreak of hostilities, with entire congregations switching their allegiance to Kyiv. … Within the next few months, the Patriarchate of Constantinople is widely expected to grant Ukraine full Orthodox independence from Russia. This would strike at the very heart of Russia’s historic claims to Ukraine, denying Moscow authority over the country’s Orthodox faithful while greatly strengthening Ukraine’s own sense of national identity.
…pro-Russian stances have become politically toxic in today’s Ukraine, with the country’s few remaining Kremlin-friendly parties obliged to disguise their positions in the language of pragmatism. …
“Surprise – Ukrainians Are Bullish on Trump,” by Judith Miller, The Wall Street Journal, September 24 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/surpriseukrainians-are-bullish-on-trump-1537830803):
“President Trump’s kowtowing to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki alarmed the world in July. Few countries had more reason for concern than Ukraine, which has defended itself in a low-intensity war with Russia for nearly four years. Yet despite the U.S. president’s baffling fondness for Mr. Putin, Ukrainians say Mr. Trump’s policies are surprisingly supportive of Kiev [sic] and hostile toward Moscow. In some ways they believe Mr. Trump has been much better than his predecessor.
“ ‘The Trump administration has a pretty sound foreign policy toward Russia, Ukraine and the region,’ says Michael McFaul, a U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Obama. ‘The problem is that the president doesn’t agree with the policies of his administration.’
“The tension between what Mr. Trump says and what his administration does – with respect to Ukraine, Russia, Afghanistan, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and even North Korea – has baffled the global foreign-policy elite. At last week’s Yalta European Strategy conference, an annual two-day symposium to strengthen Ukraine’s ties to the West, several attendees noted the conundrum. …
“Mr. Trump seems to care little about Ukraine. He often has told aides that he prefers to distance himself from its fight against Russia…
“But there is little hint of such indifference in his overall Ukraine policy. The administration has sold Kiev Javelin anti-tank missiles, which Mr. Obama refused to do. It has approved a large economic and military aid package and committed U.S. troops to joint exercises with eight other nations in Ukrainian airspace in October. …”
“U.S. and EU Need to Take on Crimea Sanction Sneaks,” by Maria Shagina, Ukraine Alert blog, Atlantic Council, September 25 (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/us-and-eu-need-to-take-on-crimea-sanction-sneaks):
Despite a comprehensive sanctions regime established by Western governments barring foreign investment in Crimea, many foreign companies nonetheless maintain operations there. Recent reports reveal that a number of companies such as Visa, MasterCard, Volkswagen, Auchan, Metro Cash & Carry, DHL, and Adidas are still willing to continue business as usual despite the reputational risk.
The companies’ sanctions-busting behavior is driven by their commercial interests: they are reluctant to lose a significant share of the Russian market. According to Sergey Aksyonov, Crimea’s self-proclaimed prime minister, nearly 3,000 foreign firms are currently operating in Crimea. Aksyonov has encouraged foreign companies to invest in Crimea, as there are ways companies can circumvent sanctions and conceal their identities. …
… sanctions busters are quick learners, and the U.S. and EU must also respond quickly…
… the EU’s decision-making process on sanctions policy, including monitoring and enforcement mechanisms, should be significantly improved. Because the EU requires unanimity to impose and renew sanctions, its ability to act and adapt is limited and slow; this gives targets sufficient time to find alternative solutions by shifting capital and payments to countries where legislation is weak or absent. …
Currently, EU member states lack the political will to enforce sanctions effectively; the cost of monitoring is high and time-consuming, while the value of illegal export-import is low. Establishing a sanctions unit and prosecuting the sanctions evaders will repair the damage inflicted to the credibility of Western sanctions and deter companies from breaching them in the future. …