KYIV – The killing of four Ukrainian soldiers on August 6 by shelling from Russian-backed forces in the Donbas during the latest proclaimed ceasefire has precipitated a flurry of diplomatic activity from official Kyiv.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called his Russian counterpart the following day to express his disgust and reached out to Ukraine’s German and French partners in the Normandy group of leaders to request an urgent meeting at the highest level. He also called the new British prime minister, Boris Johnson.
It has become very clear that, now that the presidential and parliamentary elections are over, Ukraine has to address enduring challenges, changes and new opportunities not only in the domestic but also in the foreign spheres.
Ukraine, a country still in transition and experiencing major difficulties, remains at war with Russia, and international support – political, military and economic – is vital. Kyiv’s foreign policy is conditioned by these realities, and the alignment with Euro-Atlantic structures is a question not of choice or necessity, but of survival.
After the acrimonious presidential election in which Mr. Zelenskyy was presented by his political opponents as an inexperienced populist ready to sell out to Russia, it came as a relief to many both at home and abroad that he and his team were not about to change direction.
Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv on July 27, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker summed up the response from Ukraine’s foreign friends: “The Ukrainian people clearly voted for change. They voted for peace. They voted for reform. They voted for a Ukraine that is part of Europe, part of NATO, part of the West.”
Since his election, President Zelenskyy has emphasized continuity in Ukraine’s foreign policy, albeit with possible new tweaks, and that was his message in his first official visits abroad – to Paris, Berlin and Ankara. In the Turkish capital on August 7, the Ukrainian president expressed his strong belief that “the day will come when Crimea will return to Ukraine and the united Crimean Tatar families will gather at one table.”
Recalling the deportation of the Crimean Tatar population 75 years ago by the Soviet regime of Joseph Stalin, Mr. Zelensky said that, beginning in 2014 with the illegal annexation of Crimea, Russia again brings pain and grief to the Crimean land. “Many Crimean Tatars were forced to leave their home again. And those who remained suffer from arrests, searches and constant oppression.”
In the coming weeks, Mr. Zelenskyy is scheduled to visit Warsaw and Washington, where he will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump, and to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
The war with Russia and security issues, including in the energy sphere, are the top concerns of the new administration, but ensuring continuing financial support, boosting investment and trade, winning lawsuits in international courts against Russia, and better managing relations with the country’s other neighbors are also important.
In his election campaign, Mr. Zelenskyy stressed that he stands for peace and ending the war with Russia. But he has discovered that because of President Vladimir Putin’s intransigence, there are no obvious solutions or quick fixes. Consequently, after his initial baptism of fire in dealing with the Kremlin, he has had to reinforce Kyiv’s position that there will be no yielding to Russian demands that Kyiv enter into direct relations with the Kremlin’s proxies in the Russian-supported “separatist” enclaves in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, or that it will make concessions regarding Crimea or federalizing Ukraine.
Meanwhile, apart from expressions of continuing support, Ukraine’s partners have placed the onus on the Zelenskyy administration to produce fresh initiatives to break the deadlock. As Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, after reaffirming Washington’s backing for Ukraine, put it on July 30: “New president – I hope that that will engender a more creative set of ideas about how to resolve this problem.”
Seeking to kick start the moribund “Minsk peacemaking process,” Mr. Zelenskyy has called on Mr. Putin to accept the involvement of both the U.S. and Britain. The Russian president has reiterated the same preconditions – de facto recognition of the puppet Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” and Russia’s “ownership” of Crimea.
The American side has responded cautiously, saying that President Trump would consider participating in a Minsk+ format if there were indications that it would yield results. Berlin and Paris have said earlier that they are not enthusiastic about broadening the Normandy format to include Washington.
Apart from agreeing to a new ceasefire, Kyiv has also agreed to a disengagement of forces in Stanytsia Luhanska, and, reaching out to the Ukrainian population across the divide, initiated the rebuilding of a strategic bridge between Ukrainian-held territory and the occupied zone.
In the meantime, Moscow continues to drag its feet on the issue of exchanging those considered prisoners of war, hostages and political prisoners. It has also threatened to extend illegally its military control from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea by blocking off large segments of it, ostensibly for the purposes of military exercises
The challenges do not end with the simmering war in the Donbas and Crimea.
On the western side, Ukraine is confronted with unfriendly actions from a member of the European Union and NATO, Hungary, and has somewhat strained relations with the eastern pillar of the EU, Poland, as a result of differences about the interpretation of the past that were played up in recent years.
The extent of support from allies and friends is never entirely predictable. But if the area for maneuverability is limited, the scope for Ukraine being able to enhance the effectiveness of its foreign policy certainly exists.
President Zelenskyy is a total newcomer to foreign affairs. Despite what appears from the international feedback to be a promising start in this sphere, he has had problems from the very start – first with appointing a new foreign affairs minister of his own choosing in accordance with his presidential prerogative.
His first two choices were former Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk, who has become the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, and Olena Zerkal, deputy minister of foreign affairs for European integration, who has preferred to stay on and lead Ukraine’s efforts in international litigation concerning Russia.
The president settled on Vadym Prystaiko, a deputy minister of foreign affairs, former ambassador to Canada and head of Ukraine’s Mission to NATO, but his appointment was blocked by the outgoing Parliament on June 6 when it refused to accept the departure of Foreign Affairs Minister Pavlo Klimkin.
In the meantime, the new president has fallen out with the experienced Minister Klimkin, who is currently on leave. He has also chosen to replace numerous ambassadors, including Kyiv’s ambassador to Washington, Valeriy Chaly. As a result, the Foreign Affairs Ministry has been left effectively rudderless at this transitional juncture.
The victorious Servant of the People party has nominated the former diplomat-turned-outspoken critic of the country’s foreign-policy-making establishment, Bohdan Yaremenko, to head the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Foreign Relations. A foreign policy and security expert, he advocates pragmatism in putting Ukrainian national interests above those of foreign ones.
Mr. Yaremenko and others from the new team acknowledge that Ukraine’s foreign policy, both in its formulation and practical delivery, need to be overhauled and refined. In their view, the general approach needs reviewing and updating, and greater emphasis must be placed on the quality of the country’s diplomats and their support staff, their skills and motivation.
Mr. Danylyuk, who is busily, but quietly, formulating and articulating the changes needed in strategic sectors such as defense, energy and foreign relations, has identified a critical change that needs to be made in the mindset and approach of the new administration. Relations with the outside world should be built on the principle of partnership and not of Ukraine being a victim with an outstretched hand. That, he told the news media, on July 29, is “the new order of the day.”