In late August, the foreign affairs minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov, said one of the preconditions to holding a high-level meeting of the Normandy Four is “the need to put down on paper the formula by the former chief of the German Foreign Affairs Ministry and current President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the “Steinmeier formula” will be discussed by state leaders during the Normandy Four meeting.
Miroslav Lajčák, the chairperson-in-office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), who is also Slovakia’s minister of foreign and European affairs, said Ukraine should use the so-called “Steinmeier plan” to have the Minsk agreements implemented.
Last week Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vadym Prystaiko made a sensational statement in which he mentioned that the “Steinmeier formula” had been endorsed during the Poroshenko administration.
Below, we look at what the concept puts forward, what Russia’s intent for the upcoming meeting is, and what Ukraine’s stance should be.
What did the foreign affairs minister say?
On the sidelines of the 16th Yalta European Strategy (YES) annual meeting, Foreign Affairs Minister Prystaiko in a comment to Interfax Ukraine said that Ukrainian authorities would like to hold local elections all across the country, including in the temporarily uncontrolled areas in the Donbas.
The next local elections in Ukraine are scheduled for 2020; elections on the occupied territory are mentioned in the Minsk agreements. Will that help return the occupied part of the Donbas more quickly? In what way and under what conditions can it happen? How can elections be held when the territories in question are beyond the government’s control?
Minister Prystaiko mentioned the Steinmeier formula. He said it was adopted by the fifth president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, in 2016. “The ‘Steinmeier formula’ that our head of the state endorsed is what we have to implement; we even implement the promises made by our former presidents. We are now discussing the form,” Minister Prystaiko said.
At the same time, Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, a participant of the Normandy format negotiations and President Poroshenko’s diplomatic advisor, says Ukraine never agreed to the Steinmeier formula in 2014-2019. “As a former participant of the Normandy-format negotiations at the level of diplomatic advisors I would like to emphasize: Ukraine never agreed and it could not agree to the Steinmeier formula,” Mr. Yeliseyev told Yevropeiska Pravda (European Pravda).
What is the “Steinmeier formula”?
The concept suggested by Mr. Steinmeier in 2015 is neither a roadmap for implementation of the Minsk agreements, nor a de-escalation plan, Ukraine’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Pavlo Klimkin is convinced. The concept is related to just one paragraph of the Minsk agreements – the so-called “special status” – local self-government system in the uncontrolled areas in the Donbas.
The formula was designed to answer the question of when and under what conditions special status should be granted to the uncontrolled areas. It can be boiled down to the phrase: “special status comes through honest and democratic elections according to OSCE standards.” These standards suggest that elections cannot be held in the presence of foreign troops and mercenaries; also, security guarantees are required.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emphasized that local elections in the Donbas can be held only after Russian troops are withdrawn and that they should be held in accordance with Ukrainian legislation.
Foreign Affairs Minister Prystaiko emphasized that no amendments regarding the special status of the Donbas will be introduced to the Constitution of Ukraine. Instead, decentralization will be suggested for development of the areas that are currently occupied, the same as anywhere else in Ukraine.
What are the Steinmeier formula’s risks?
Despite the optimism and expectations that the new Ukrainian authorities have for the upcoming meeting, the risks are clear. “It is becoming clear that Russia is making active attempts to …make Ukraine accept the Russian vision of the peace deal – Ukraine gives political commitments in exchange for Moscow’s security guarantees. The true price of these guarantees does not need explanation,” said Mr. Yeliseyev, diplomatic advisor to former President Poroshenko.
Former Foreign Affairs Minister Klimkin warns about the standards for holding elections: “The Russian Federation will also make each and every effort to blur the notion of OSCE election standards – it will be advocating that among them there are absolutely important ones and ones that are ‘less important,’ etc. Surely what’s key is how to create security conditions there for free and democratic elections.”
What is the U.S. position?
U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker reconfirmed that Ukraine’s international partners will not be pushing Kyiv to hold elections in the occupied areas of the Donbas while Russia-controlled forces are there. The U.S. special envoy said he does not see the scenario of Ukraine being pushed to have elections while its territory is still occupied. Implementation of the Steinmeier formula is possible only after the elections happen, he added.
The U.S. diplomat said that. to have the Steinmeier formula implemented, Russia needs to withdraw its troops in the first place. In addition, illegal armed groups of Russia’s proxies need to be disarmed and stability in the region needs to be restored.
Ambassador Volker said the Steinmeier formula starts with elections and noted that a situation in which free elections are possible needs to be achieved first. Commenting on the possible lifting of sanctions on Russia, Ambassador Volker reiterated that the sanctions introduced as a response to the Russia’s occupation of Crimea will remain in place as long as Russia continues to occupy the peninsula.
He noted that, if Russia starts adhering to the Minsk agreements, the U.S. will consider softening relevant sanctions.