February 26, 2016

Post Euro-Maidan Ukraine: fighting a two-front war

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Following the Euro-Maidan revolution, Ukraine has been waging a two-pronged fight that integrates domestic and foreign components. The first battle is Russia’s desire to dismember Ukraine, halt its European integration and return it to the “Russkii mir” (Russian world) sphere of influence. The second battle is to begin to effectively fight the scourge of high-level corruption and abuse of office, and bring to justice those who were guilty of bankrupting Ukraine and murdering protesters.

Both of these battles affect Ukraine’s national security in many ways and they cannot be divorced from one another.

The first battle has been largely a successful people’s war that was fought with the assistance of military and civil society volunteers who halted Vladimir Putin’s plans to separate eastern and southern Ukraine, his so-called Novorossiya (New Russia). The Ukrainian state inherited by the Euro-Maidan was financially bankrupted by the outgoing regime that had asset-stripped the armed forces and destroyed its operational capabilities, while Russian military and secret services had thoroughly penetrated Ukraine’s military intelligence and the security service (SBU).

The Ukrainian state and security forces, therefore, barely existed during the crucial first year of war, and defense of Ukraine’s eastern regions was left to Ukrainian volunteers – many of whom had joined from the Euro-Maidan. Ukraine’s leaders continued to be corrupt and to rely upon old-guard senior generals heavily indoctrinated by Soviet training. Furthermore, the central authorities do not reach out to eastern and southern Ukraine or provide assistance to internally displaced people; this is left to civil society volunteers.

The second battle, which always required political will on the part of the president and the government, has proven to be a failure. A majority of Ukrainians are sceptical of President Petro Poroshenko and the government. “Until they start putting officials who steal millions behind bars, we can’t say that this fight is effective,” Daryna Kalenyuk, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, said.

Ukraine’s second battle requires visible action and results in five areas:

1. Euro-Maidan: Justice must be sought for the victims who were politically repressed, wounded and murdered on the Euro-Maidan. U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden told Ukrainian lawmakers that the sacrifice of the Heavenly Hundred “to put it bluntly is now your obligation.” Not a single person has been criminally charged.

2. Ancient Regime: Viktor Yanukovych and his political and business allies must be brought to justice at home and internationally for massive abuse of office, political repression and ordering the use of live rounds during the Euro-Maidan. Mr. Yanukovych and his allies committed treason in facilitating the degrading of Ukraine’s armed forces and Russian penetration of Ukraine’s intelligence services, calling for Russian forces to annex the Crimea and not preventing or colluding with the separatists in the Donbas. No criminal charges have been made and the Procurator General’s Office has sabotaged cooperation with Interpol, the FBI and other Western law enforcement agencies.

3. Corruption: Mr. Biden called upon Ukrainian authorities to fight “the cancer of corruption” in a reference to high-level corruption among the elites. Political corruption scandals have continued to grow among President Poroshenko’s allies, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s government and the Euro-Maidan parliamentary coalition.

4. Oligarchs: Business as usual for oligarchs must end and there must be a demonstrative reduction in their political influence and financial power. As The Economist wrote, “Building a nation means putting plutocrats in their place.” Anders Aslund reminds us that “At present, Ukraine stands out as the last post-communist outpost where tycoons wield substantial political power” and “big businessmen have captured the state in Ukraine, more than any other post-communist country.” Therefore, “The power of the oligarchs has to be broken.”

5. War: There must be accountability for senior officers guilty of treason or incompetence whose orders led to high levels of Ukrainian casualties at Illovaysk and Debaltseve. An August 2015 parliamentary report on Illovaysk found that Russia had reneged on its promise to permit a corridor for Ukrainian forces to escape from the ambush and killed 366 soldiers and volunteers; another 29 were wounded, 128 were taken prisoner and 158 were missing. The investigation into the de facto Russian massacre has been as incompetent and indifferent as that into the Euro-Maidan murders and the May 2014 deaths in Odesa.

The success of the former battle in stemming Mr. Putin’s Russian imperialism was not without cost. The official military casualty figures underestimate the number of Ukrainians who have died because they do not include volunteers and Ukrainian forces do not have dog tags. Many others were wounded and became disabled. Understandably, military veterans and civil society, as well as the Ukrainian public more generally, are angry at the lack of progress in Ukraine’s second battle, which is already leading to political instability.

Ukraine’s society and Ukrainian patriots overthrew a kleptocratic, murderous traitor and thwarted the imperial ambitions of a Russian sociopath and imperialist. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ruling elites have failed to fulfill the aims and objectives of the Euro-Maidan Revolution of Dignity. Clearly, Ukraine is a country where the average citizen is more European in his or her values than the so-called “elites.”