Part I
I did not see it coming. Few people did. As someone who has followed developments in Belarus since shortly after Alyaksandr Lukashenka became president in 1994, I am surprised and incredibly heartened by the size and persistence of massive peaceful protests following the rigged August 9 presidential elections in which Mr. Lukashenka claims to have won his sixth term. The vote fraud was so flagrant and shameless that most Belarusians believe that it was the opposition candidate, Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who won. The weekly mass protests – often exceeding 100,000 participants – are now well into their third month. This would be remarkable anywhere. It is especially amazing for Belarus.
As a policy advisor for the U.S. governmental Helsinki Commission whose portfolio included Belarus, I served as an international observer of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for eight of the nine national elections held between 2001 and 2017. Not one of these elections were free or fair according to the OSCE. I saw this with my own eyes, sometimes watching vote count violations that bordered on the absurd. And in the aftermath of each of these fraudulent elections, I witnessed protests – some larger, some smaller, some more severely suppressed, others less so.
An especially harsh clampdown following the December 2010 presidential election seemed to take the wind out of the sails of the already beleaguered democratic opposition – many of whose courageous and dedicated leaders were imprisoned or forced into exile. Victims of decades of repression, democratic forces in Belarus appeared to wane.
I recall going out to the main square after observing the parliamentary elections in 2016 and seeing only a few hundred people protesting, a far cry from the thousands I had seen in most earlier elections. It looked as if the Lukashenka regime’s decades of suppression of fundamental freedoms and serial human rights violations had finally succeeded in weakening the Belarusian people’s resolve for a democratic future.
In the weeks leading up to this year’s August 9 presidential elections, I thought that any post-election protest, similar to the earlier ones, would be short-lived. But not this year! The large peaceful protests, now well into their third month, are vividly demonstrating that there is a historical awakening afoot.
The Belarusian people are finally tiring of the economic stagnation, the lack of freedom, the consistently fraudulent elections. They are tired of a buffoonish leader who dismissed COVID-19 as mass psychosis and suggested people drink vodka and go to the sauna “to poison the virus.” They have had enough of the dictator who has lorded over them for the last 26 years. They are longing for change.
The brutal crackdown by security forces in the days following the August 9 election, with mass detentions, torture and beatings, did not have its intended effect of quelling the protests, as they had a decade ago in 2010. The regime’s abuses only served to bring many more people out into the streets. To this day, riot police continue to detain protesters, albeit on a smaller scale, as the authorities realize that their initial harsh actions were counterproductive.
Large numbers of protesters continue to gather every Sunday, calling for the strongman to step down; for new, free and fair elections; and for the release of detainees and political prisoners. In addition to the Sunday protests, there have also been smaller rallies, including regular women-led marches on Saturdays and small neighborhood gatherings. There have been a few strikes at state enterprises and even resignations by officials, including from the security forces. And while there are small indications of uneasiness within the state apparatus, the protest movement does not yet appear to pose a serious threat to regime cohesion.
The size and unprecedented persistence of the protests, however, is causing Mr. Lukashenka angst, as evidenced recently by his taking the highly unusual step of meeting with jailed opposition leaders. Clearly, the situation remains fluid.
As with mass protests in other countries in recent years, the role of social media in their organization has been invaluable. The Nexta and other Telegram messaging app channels have proved especially useful in getting the word out about protests. Radio Svaboda (Radio Liberty), Belsat and other international broadcasting outlets have also played a key role. Not surprisingly, the Lukashenka regime, a long-time enemy of free media, has cracked down with arrests and detentions of journalists, revocation of their accreditation, and blocking of the Internet and opposition websites.
And what about the reaction of Belarus’s erstwhile ally Russia?
Not surprisingly, Moscow has played a decidedly unhelpful role, propping up the Belarusian dictator, although for how long is anybody’s guess. Mr. Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin have long had a tense, complicated relationship. Still, Belarus is extremely vulnerable to Russian economic pressure, in large part because of Mr. Lukashenka’s lack of both economic and political reforms. Mr. Putin holds the cards. Russia is unlikely to invade Belarus for the simple reason that it does not really need to, given its hold. For the time being, Russia is sticking by Mr. Lukashenka.
Russia is wary of the Belarusian people, as it is of any people in what it still considers to be its turf. Even though the protests are not anti-Russian, the very fact that they are pro-democracy makes the Kremlin anxious. Similar to Ukraine during the Orange Revolution and the Euro-Maidan, Belarus’s newfound longing for freedom is most assuredly not a good example, from Mr. Putin’s perspective, for the Russian people to emulate. And many people in Russia are watching.
In addition to the quest for freedom and democracy, we are also witnessing a growth in Belarusian national consciousness. Its most visible example is the white-red-white national flag, banned in 1995, now ubiquitous at every rally, large or small, in Minsk and other cities and towns across the country. A truly independent Belarus which respects its language, culture and history, and looks towards its European, rather than Russian, heritage most certainly does not fit with Mr. Putin’s imperialistic “Russkiy Mir” vision.
What is going on in Belarus is historic. Should the protest movement succeed, it would have major ramifications not only for Belarus, but for the region and for Europe.
Stay tuned for Part 2, where I will also address how the United States and our allies, including Ukraine, are responding to this ongoing transformation.
Orest Deychakiwsky may be reached at [email protected].