KYIV – Joe Biden’s sixth and last visit to Ukraine as America’s vice-president on January 16 was more symbolic and consultative in nature, Ukrainian experts said just five days before a new president is inaugurated in Washington.
In his fifth visit since the Euro-Maidan Revolution, Mr. Biden, 74, came to show that America isn’t forgetting about Kyiv and was a swan song gesture of support, commented political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko of the Penta Center.
“It is a signal that we are remembered. He didn’t have to come to Kyiv. It’s a sign of respect and attention toward us,” Mr. Fesenko said. “Perhaps, it’s a signal to the new [American] administration to not forget about Ukraine. I really hope that it’s a signal for the next president to visit us, not only the vice-president.”
Barack Obama is the only sitting president not to have visited post-Soviet Ukraine during his tenure.
It’s doubtful that the incoming administration of the 45th president of the United States, Donald Trump, will appoint such an authoritative figure as Vice-President Biden as point man for Ukraine, which emerged from a two-year economic recession last year and has been battered by three years of war with Russia.
“I don’t completely understand the added value of this visit,” Alyona Hetmanchuk of the Institute of World Policy said of the outgoing vice-president’s visit. “It’s nevertheless important as an investment in the future in view of the political weight that Biden carries in American politics.”
Mr. Biden affirmed U.S. support for Ukraine as long as Kyiv continues fighting corruption and bolstering democratic institutions to instill rule of law and improve governance. He said sanctions against Russia will remain in place as long as the Ukrainian territory of Crimea is occupied and Moscow doesn’t fulfill security commitments regarding a truce accord that it promised to uphold regarding the Donbas war that has killed more than 10,000 people and internally displaced over 1.7 million Ukrainians.
“And I hope the next administration will also want to be a supporter and a partner in your continued progress,” Mr. Biden said. “But, as you know, no one else can do the hard work but the Ukrainian people. It’s up to Ukrainian leaders and people to put the needs of the country above narrow personal interest, to place the general good above point scoring and local prejudices.”
Speaking to President Petro Poroshenko during their joint news conference, the U.S. vice-president said that “Russia’s continued attempts to undermine your success, your security, your sovereignty and your territorial integrity are manifold.”
He continued: “It’s no secret that Russia does not want you to succeed, Mr. President. It’s not just about Ukraine. It’s about the future we have long sought of a Europe whole, free and at peace – whole, free, and at peace – something that is in the vital national interest of both the United States and all Europeans.”
Mr. Biden betrayed bewilderment within the outgoing administration towards the end of the news conference, according to Yuliya Kurnyshova, a lawmaker and expert at the Institute of Socio-Economic Research.
Referring to Mr. Biden’s response that “hope springs eternal” regarding whether Mr. Trump’s administration will match the priority that he had for Ukraine, she said the phrase speaks of “confusion” in the outgoing regime.
There is confusion not only “in Ukraine but in the entire American establishment,” Ms. Kurnyshova said.
“Expectations for the incoming administration of Trump are very mixed,” she said. “These conclusions stem from the presidential election campaign and from the ambiguous statements that Trump has made. Thus, I think that Biden is uncertain about the state of American politics, especially in the Democratic party.”
Part of the trepidation stems from Mr. Trump’s policy toward Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine and America’s own interests not being clearly outlined.
Mr. Biden may have advised Mr. Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, with whom he also met this week, on how to deal with the incoming administration.
“There is an unusual situation in the U.S. when the new administration will meticulously inspect everything that the Obama administration has done,” said political analyst Oleksandr Kochetkov. “Therefore, Biden came to inspect what was done in terms of what was agreed between the U.S. and Ukraine. And how the Ukrainian government should behave toward the new American administration.”
Speaking to Reuters, Andy Hunder, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, said that Ukraine “will be waking up to a new reality” on January 20 when Mr. Trump is sworn in.
“There is a concern in Kyiv about how the new relationship will develop. It will require building new bridges to the influencers, the gatekeepers and decision-makers,” the British national of Ukrainian descent said.
Weeks before the inauguration, the Ukrainian government hired BGR Group, a predominantly Republican firm run by former Republican National Committee chairman Haley Barbour, to lobby politicians and arrange meetings between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, reported The Hill, a top U.S. political publication based in Washington.
The one-year contract with the firm is worth a total of $600,000, or $50,000 per month, and comes as Mr. Trump has suggested he is willing to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and ease sanctions in exchange for Moscow reducing its nuclear arsenal.
“The U.S. administration’s tolerance of Russia’s violation of Ukrainian territorial integrity would have larger implications for the future of humanity,” said Andreas Umland, senior research fellow at the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kyiv. “A move by Washington to appease Moscow would be another crack in the splintering international nuclear nonproliferation regime.”
Mr. Poroshenko is confident his new American counterpart will maintain “very strong bilateral support” for the nation of 42 million, according to an interview he gave to Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 17.
Even though Mr. Trump, 70, has showed open admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainian president said that “U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has unique opportunities for using all his influence to support Ukraine in its struggle for freedom and democracy.”
Indeed, Mr. Trump has enlisted at least three officials who are hawkish on Russia, and Mr. Poroshenko confirmed that he will visit Washington soon after January 20.
“Immediately after the inauguration, we agreed the date of my visit to Washington, D.C., and the agenda of our negotiation would be quite big,” Mr. Poroshenko told Bloomberg, without providing the exact date.
Mr. Biden was certain of another thing. “This next year is going to be a very, very telling year – a very telling year,” the outgoing vice-president said as he ended his statement in Kyiv.