July 10, 2015

IN THE PRESS: The “ceasefire” and Vladimir Putin’s “fantasy”

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“The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is a fiction,” by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), The Washington Post, June 26 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-russia-ukraine-cease-fire-is-a-fiction/ 2015/06/26/5cf0cde6-1a9d-11e5-93b 7- 5eddc056ad8a_story.html):

Last weekend, I traveled with Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) to eastern Ukraine to meet with the courageous men and women fighting there for their country’s freedom and future. …Their message to me was clear: The ceasefire with Russia is fiction, and U.S. assistance is vital to deterring further Russian aggression.

… Along the front lines, separatist forces backed by Russia violate the ceasefire every day with heavy artillery barrages and tank attacks. Gun battles are a daily routine, and communities at the front bear the brunt of constant sniper fire and nightly skirmishes.

…So far, Ukrainian armed forces supported by volunteer battalions have been able to hold their ground, and they have done so largely without the support of Ukrainian artillery and tanks that have been pulled back from the front as stipulated by the Minsk agreement. How long can we expect these brave Ukrainians to abide by an agreement that Russia has clearly ignored?

It is time that the United States and our European allies recognize the failure of the Minsk agreement and respond with more than empty rhetoric. Ukraine’s leaders describe Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy as a game of “Pac-Man” – taking bite after bite out of Ukraine in small enough portions that it does not trigger a large-scale international response. …

Around the world, friend and foe alike are watching to see whether the United States will once again summon its power and influence to defend the international system that has kept the peace for decades. We must not fail this test.

“The Fantasy Mr. Putin Is Selling,” editorial, The New York Times, June 22 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/ 22/opinion/the-fantasy-mr-putin-is-selling.html): 

President Vladimir Putin of Russia is not veering from the mythology he created to explain away the crisis over Ukraine. It is one that wholly blames the West for provoking a new Cold War and insists that international sanctions have not grievously wounded his country’s flagging economy.

He told the story again on Friday at a business forum whose purpose was to give weight to that fantasy. It drew at least 24 chief executives of Western companies, some of whom attended even though their governments had urged them not to….

The United States and Europe have largely been measured in their response to the crisis. They need to stay measured and focused on diplomacy, always making it clear that the confrontation could end if Mr. Putin withdrew his troops and weapons from Ukraine and instructed Russian-backed separatists to observe the Minsk ceasefire agreement that both sides have routinely violated.

Given Mr. Putin’s aggressive behavior, including pouring troops and weapons into Kaliningrad, a Russian city located between NATO members Lithuania and Poland, the allies have begun taking their own military steps. …

If he is not careful, Mr. Putin may end up facing exactly what he has railed against – a NATO more firmly parked on Russia’s borders – not because the alliance wanted to go in that direction, but because Russian behavior left it little choice. That is neither in Russia’s interest, nor the West’s.

“Putin the uniter,” The Economist, June 20 (http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21654663-war-has-made-most-ukrainians-see-russians-enemies-not-friends-putin-uniter):

…by annexing Crimea and waging war in Ukraine’s south-east, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has made an enemy of erstwhile brothers. In the past 18 months, a psychological shift has seen public opinion in Ukraine turn sharply against Russia. In September 2013, just before the Maidan revolution, 88 percent of Ukrainians felt “positively” about Russia, says the Kiev [sic] International Institute of Sociology. By May 2015, that number had fallen to 30 percent (it would be a lot lower if it excluded people in the rebel-held south-east). …

The changing mood manifests itself on Ukraine’s streets. There is a movement to boycott Russian goods: markers noting “Russian products” dot Ukrainian supermarket shelves. …Not far from the [Ukraine-Russia] Friendship Arch [in Kyiv], vendors who once sold Soviet kitsch now tout patriotic Ukrainian wares and anti-Russian souvenirs. …

The longer the war drags on, the more entrenched opinion becomes. …Even many who made allowances over Crimea have begun to see Russia differently. And in the last three months of 2014, the share of eastern Ukrainians who viewed Russia positively fell from 83 percent to 51 percent.

Polling by the International Republican Institute finds a majority of Ukrainians in government-controlled territory favoring membership of the European Union, whereas only 13 percent want to join Russia’s Customs Union. Ukraine’s government has begun building a wall along its border with Russia, a symbolic gesture attuned to the country’s mood. Support for Ukrainian independence has never been higher. “Putin has done more to unite Ukraine than anyone else,” says an official in Ukraine’s presidential administration. …