In Ukrainian politics, a sluggish season has given way to another, but one that promises reinvigoration, though not necessarily of the healthy sort.
In Ukraine there has been no noticeable change in the lackadaisical approach to politics and reform, and in the general situation as such. It has been largely a case of business as usual as per the lethargic Ukrainian variant that we have become used to. The only sphere where there has been more dynamism is in the external one, with two important and productive European visits having just been undertaken by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In recent weeks – apart from the perennial concern about keeping the economy afloat with Western support, preoccupation with the ever-growing challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic and keeping Russia at bay in the ongoing war in the Donbas – there have been more scandals connected with corruption, especially within the president’s ruling party, Servant of the People, as well as surprise and unease concerning the potential ramifications from the Belarusian democratic revolution in the north.
The attention of political forces has been increasingly focused on the approaching local elections, scheduled for October 25. President Zelenskyy’s party, with its popularity, or rather credibility, declining rapidly, is hoping to hold its own. For some reason, however, it can hardly claim to have been pro-active. Its diverse political opponents, from the parties represented in the Ukrainian Parliament, to the local mavericks seeking popular endorsement, are hoping to burst the bubble of success achieved by the Servant of the People party in 2019 and to reconfigure the political landscape.
What do the latest polls tell us? They confirm that Servant of the People, and the president himself, are continuing to lose popular support at a rather alarming rate; that the Ukrainian political scene that emerged after the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019 has changed drastically.
Just as the mono-party majority of the Servant of the People faction has de facto ceased to exist in the Verkhovna Rada, the president himself no longer enjoys the overwhelming popular support that marginalized his political opponents. Those opponents are still not in a position to overtake him, but the playing field is becoming more and more even with each passing month.
After barely a year in power, the Zelenskyy administration can no longer confidently proclaim a “turbo” regime promoting change via its majority faction in the Parliament, nor guarantee satisfactory returns in the upcoming local elections. The disturbing feature here is that pro-Russian forces have been profiting from this and gaining relatively more strength than others.
One of the telling features of real democracy in Ukraine – unlike in neighboring Russia, or Belarus, or Kyrgyzstan – elections are genuinely free and the results are respected, and independent opinion and exit polls are accurate and can be trusted.
The latest polling
In mid-September, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a poll in which 31.8 percent of respondents who had already made up their minds how they would vote said they would support the incumbent president if presidential elections were held soon, 18.9 percent would vote for former President Petro Poroshenko, and 13.3 percent for the leader of the pro-Russian Opposition Bloc Party, Yuriy Boyko.
Compared to Mr. Zelenskyy’s rating in April, his approval fell by 10.8 percentage points (from 42.6 percent to 31.8 percent), while that of Mr. Poroshenko rose by 4 percentage points (from 14.9 percent to 18.9 percent). The survey conducted on August 29-September 3 showed 44 percent of respondents trusted President Zelenskyy, while 51 percent distrusted him.
As for the other current potential contenders for the presidency, 9.9 percent of respondents said they would vote for leader of the Batkivshchyna party Yulia Tymoshenko, 6.8 percent for leader of the Syla i Chest (Strength and Honor) Party Ihor Smeshko, 6 percent for leader of the Radical Party Oleh Liashko. Some 4.9 percent said they would vote for leader of the Hromadianska Pozytsiya (Civil Position) Party Anatoliy Hrytsenko, and 2.3 percent for former Party of the Regions National Deputy Oleksandr Vilkul.
The latest poll conducted in the final days of September by the Kyiv-based Social Monitoring Center produced further sobering findings. According to the results published on October 6, if parliamentary elections were held now, only four political parties would be represented in the new legislature. Thus, 25.9 percent of respondents would vote for Servant of the People, 22 percent for the pro-Russian Opposition Platform – For Life, 14.2 percent for Mr. Poroshenko’s European Solidarity, and 9.5 percent for Ms. Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna.
Some 4.3 percent of would cast their votes for Mr. Smeshko’s Strength and Honor party, and 4.1 percent would support the populist Mr. Liashko’s Radical Party. Only 1.6 percent of respondents would support the rock singer Sviatoslav Vakarchuk’s Holos (Voice) party.
Although it is not possible to predict with total certainty the outcome of the local elections, it is likely that the result will inject a new dose of political realism into the Ukrainian body politic and reshape politics within the Parliament and beyond. Therefore, a new season of intensified wheeling and dealing can be expected in the aftermath.
Currently, Batkivshchyna appears to be acting in an undeclared alliance with the Opposition Platform – For Life, and Servant of the People and European Solidarity have remained bitter rivals since their leaders competed against one another in last year’s acrimonious presidential election.
Thus, both Servant of the People and the country as a whole could be heading for a fall of a political and economic, rather than seasonal type. If the work of Parliament is blocked because of the lack of agreement, the likelihood of early parliamentary elections cannot be ruled out.
The coronavirus factor
Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic, with its serious impact on the economy and logistics, has been growing more serious and this week set new records. Yet popular attitudes remain ambivalent about the grave challenges it poses and how the Ukrainian government is addressing it.
According to the results of a survey published in early September by the Rating Sociological Group, around 24 percent of Ukrainians did not consider the coronavirus threatening, while 14 percent strongly disagreed, and 34 percent did not think it as serious as it is made out to be. Still, 56 percent of respondents said they approved of the activities to overcome the coronavirus epidemic undertaken by local authorities. Some 49 percent of respondents said they approved the president’s work in this regard, while 40 percent did not. At the same time, 36 percent supported the Cabinet of Ministers’ activities in this sphere, while 51 percent disapproved.
Economic issues
The other big issue constantly lurking in the background remains the economy, or rather how to make ends meet and to ensure Western support to make this possible. In mid-September, the Ukrainian government approved a state budget for 2021 and sent it to the Parliament for its approval.
According to Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko, the draft budget is realistic, balanced and based on the macroeconomic forecast adopted in July this year. “This is a budget of opportunities for economic development and support for our citizens and businesses in the context of ‘restarting’ the economy after the impact of the coronavirus pandemic,” he said.
The government is basing its plans on the expectation that Ukraine will receive a second tranche of a stand-by loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), despite delays connected with the external perceptions of Ukraine’s lackluster performance in combatting corruption and ensuring greater openness. The first tranche was acquired back in July.
The chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, Danylo Hetmantsev, said he hopes Ukraine will receive the second tranche in December. Speaking last month, he said: “If we talk about what is happening with the IMF now, we were supposed to receive a tranche in September. Obviously, this is not going to happen, but there is hope that our negotiating team will achieve results and we will get it in December.”
IMF spokesman Jerry Rice, however, refused to name the date of the mission’s next visit to Ukraine in order to provide the second tranche under the 18-month stand-by lending program. “I cannot indicate the date of the mission’s arrival after its first review. Negotiations between Ukraine and the IMF are under way.”
Ukraine has been fortunate to receive a new credit from the European Union for 1.2 billion Euros, which was agreed on back in July. In mid-September President Zelenskyy signed a draft law on the ratification of the memorandum with the EU to obtain this loan.
Nevertheless, during his visit to Ukraine on September 22, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell reminded Kyiv that, while Brussels remains supportive, the EU is neither a cash machine nor a charity. As he put it, “The best way for us to support Ukraine is to help reforming the country. But only the Ukrainians themselves can implement those reforms.”
On the eve of the forthcoming EU-Ukraine summit Mr. Borrell told his Ukrainian hosts: “Our support will continue but is also linked to the urgent need to enhance the rule of law and develop the fight against corruption.”
Summit with the EU
That message was reinforced at the summit in Brussels on October 6. For his part, President Zelenskyy delivered the assurances and expressions of gratitude that were expected from him and signed several new agreements on behalf of Ukraine with the EU.
“We have agreed to make the most of [the Association Agreement] mechanisms in order to further develop our trade relations and deepen economic integration between Ukraine and the European Union,” he announced.
In the joint statement issued after the summit, “The EU reiterated its unwavering support and commitment to Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders” and reaffirmed “continued commitment to strengthening the political association and economic integration of Ukraine with the European Union, on the basis of the Association Agreement and its Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area.”
“We share common values of democracy, rule of law, respect for international law and human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities, as well as gender equality,” the EU leaders stressed.
With this successful summit behind him, on October 7 President Zelenskyy flew on to London. The highlight of his official visit was to be the signing of a new Agreement on Political Cooperation, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership with Britain, which is poised to leave the EU.
In the meantime, the coronavirus pandemic has sickened more members of the Verkhovna Rada, including former President Poroshenko, effectively putting its work on hold. In the east of the country, the ceasefire is still largely holding, but the deadlock in the search for peace also continues.
This then – with dramatic events continuing in the north in neighboring Belarus, the war with Russia simmering on in the Donbas and local elections fast approaching – is the current situation as seen from the Kyiv angle.