Five years ago, on January 13, 2015, Russia-backed forces in Ukraine’s occupied territories launched their biggest military campaign against Ukrainian forces since the September 5 Minsk ceasefire protocols, staging hundreds of attacks in a fierce attempt to take control of the territory of the ruined Donetsk airport.
In addition to the military attacks, terrorist attacks were launched throughout Ukraine: on January 13 in Volnovakha 13 civilians were killed and 17 injured; in Kharkiv on January 19, 14 were injured at a courthouse; and on the next day in the Zaporizhzhya region a bridge was blown up as a cargo train crossed it. The city of Avdiyivka’s coke plant in the Donetsk region was targeted by the Russia-backed forces as well.
Experts saw the move by Russia as intended to boost its negotiating position after failing to gain concessions at a January 12 foreign affairs ministers meeting in Berlin. A planned January 15 meeting in Kazakhstan with France and Germany fell through after preconditions weren’t met.
“Russia, together with the separatists, is trying to revise the Minsk accords, while Ukraine and the EU are insisting on their fulfillment,” said Volodymyr Fesenko of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research in Kyiv. “Not having achieved their goal, Russia and the separatists want to force Ukraine into a peace based on their conditions.”
Russia’s primary goal was for the separatists to be recognized as an official part in the negotiation process, rather than observers, as they had been previously designated. On the ground, Russia would attempt to move the contact line as far west into Ukrainian lands as possible. Other targeted cities included the train hub city of Debaltseve and the Azov Sea port of Mariupol.
Russia suffered hundreds of casualties during the week of January 17-18, and after that, Russian armed forces dispatched two tactical groups into Ukrainian territory, reported the National Security and Defense Council on January 19. Reported hardware included tanks, howitzers, radio-electronic warfare systems, as well as Grad, Smerch and Buk rocket systems.
Another round of talks was scheduled for January 21 in Berlin at the ministerial level in the Normany format (France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia). Foreign Affairs Minister Pavlo Klimkin expressed skepticism about the talks, as Russia would need to remove its troops and weapons from Ukraine before any meaningful talks could proceed.
On January 15, the European Parliament approved a resolution condemning Russia’s aggressive and expansionist actions against Ukraine, including its information war and cyberwarfare, as well as energy sector blackmail, economic pressure, and diplomatic and political destabilization. The resolution failed to name the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” as terrorist organizations, however, it did extend sanctions and strengthened them to include the nuclear sector and restrictions on Russian businesses that conduct international financial operations. It also called for European Union member states to provide the Ukrainian government with arms.
Since then, the Avdiyivka Coke and Chemical Plant has returned to full capacity output after coming back under Ukrainian control. The plant has not been affected by the naval blockade of the Azov Sea by Russia because the plant receives its materials from Odesa, transported via railway to the Donetsk Oblast. In fact, RFE/RL Ukrainian Service reported that the factory is expanding its facilities.
Source: “Russians launch biggest offensive in Donbas since September ceasefire,” by Zenon Zawada, The Ukrainian Weekly, January 25, 2015.