KYIV – Ukraine is still “watching and waiting” when it comes to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy towards its strategic partner and his stance towards the Donbas war that Russia has stoked since April 2014.
Being gauged in every world capital for his unorthodox policy views and governing style, the 45th American president said he wasn’t taken aback when Kremlin-backed forces escalated fighting in eastern Ukraine within 24 hours of his phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 28.
Asked by Fox host Bill O’Reilly, “Did you take that as an insult?,” Mr. Trump responded: “No, I didn’t because we don’t really know exactly what that is. They’re pro forces. We don’t know if they’re uncontrollable. Are they uncontrollable? That happens also. We’re going to find out. I will be surprised, but we will see.”
Ukraine’s presidential office didn’t comment on the interview, while Mr. Trump vowed to learn who “controls” the forces attacking Ukraine’s east despite an abundance of evidence pointing to Russia.
Until President Petro Poroshenko meets with Mr. Trump during the second half of this month, Ukrainian political scientists refrained from commenting on what, and how, America’s policy will change toward Kyiv.
“Uncertainty is a big factor here because you don’t know what to expect,” said Iryna Bekeshina, director of the Democratic Initiatives think tank. “Historically, as strategic partners, policy was always more or less anticipated. Now it’s unclear. But Russia also doesn’t really doesn’t know what to expect [from the U.S.].”
A positive sign is that Mr. Trump chose to speak with Mr. Poroshenko instead of delegating the task to a subordinate.
Alluding to ex-President Barack Obama’s “outsourcing” to then-Vice President Joe Biden, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said that the fact that the two presidents spoke indicates a lot.
“It’s a positive signal and very important for communication… Trump still doesn’t have a clear position on Ukraine and how to resolve the conflict in the Donbas,” he said. “So far, the U.S. hasn’t drastically made any policy changes towards Ukraine. Trump knows that Russia needs to give concession for an agreement to be made.”
Asked whether Mr. Trump would abandon a post-World War II order whereby boundaries are respected instead of shifting to “big-bargain politics,” Mr. Fesenko said, “I don’t think the U.S. will go back on what was agreed before and make a decision that will go against its own interests.”
Still, the readouts of President Trump’s phone conversations this week with President Poroshenko and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, were cause for alarm. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, both times referred to the fighting in eastern Ukraine as taking place not on Ukraine’s territory, but “along the border.”
European Union leaders on February 6 also voiced uncertainty about where President Trump stands on finding peace in Ukraine, while they reiterated the need to keep sanctions against Russia in force until it fulfills its peace commitments concerning the Donbas war.
“I cannot say where the U.S. administration stands on this, but I can say where the Europeans stand on this,” EU foreign affairs and security leader Federica Mogherini told reporters.
Another promising sign is that Mr. Trump reportedly told former Ukrainian Prime Minister and current National Deputy Yulia Tymoshenko that it’s too soon to lift sanctions on Russia and that he won’t abandon Kyiv. That’s according to the Ukrainian politician, who met briefly with him on February 2 at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington.
While no formal assurances were given, according to a White House statement, “the president and the former PM had a brief, informal photo-op meeting…”
Still of concern is Trump’s ongoing admiration and defense of Mr. Putin.
In the same Fox News interview, which was conduced on February 3 and aired on February 5 and 6, the U.S. president defended the former KGB colonel when told he was a “killer,” and inferred that America’s actions were not worse than Russia’s domestically and in the global arena.
U.S.-Ukraine relations remain at the highest levels, according to political experts Serhiy Taran of the International Institute of Democracy.
“What’s important is that discussions about Ukraine should take place with Ukraine’s participation,” Mr. Taran said. “According to Russia’s scenario, Ukraine should be discussed without its participation. But if the Ukrainian and American president contact each other, then Ukraine will take part in defining its fate.”
Reassurance came on February 2 when the new U.S. ambassador to the United Nations condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine during her maiden speech in New York.
“The United States stands with the people of Ukraine who have suffered for nearly three years under Russian occupation and military interventions,” Ambassador Nikki Haley said. “Until Russia and the separatists it supports respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, this crisis will continue.”
She continued: “Crimea is part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control over the peninsula to Ukraine.” (The text of Ambassador Haley’s remarks appears on page 8.)
On the streets of Kyiv amid sub-zero temperatures, passers-by were indecisive in reacting to Mr. Trump’s latest comments about Russia and its invasive role in the Donbas.
“I haven’t heard much from him [Trump], but he is only president for two weeks or so. He is probably learning the situation. Ukraine must prepare for the worst anyway, and not rely on others,” said logistical manager Liliya Strumenko, 24, in Kyiv’s Podil neighborhood.
Lawyer Anatoliy Fatiukh, 28, said he wants to wait until Mr. Poroshenko visits Washington before making an assertion.
“Let’s wait and see. Trump’s words are different from his actions. I hear in the U.N. that the American speaker said that Russia is guilty of the Avdiyivka battles. It’s too soon what to say. If Trump doesn’t know who is behind the separatism in Donbas, maybe he is giving himself some time or room,” he told The Ukrainian Weekly.
Mixed signals predominate, however. Whereas high-level American officials like Vice-President Mike Pence said, “We’re watching and very troubled by the increased hostilities” in the Donbas, his superior has stood up for Mr. Putin.
While downplaying the characterization that the Russian president is a “killer,” President Trump stated: “We’ve got a lot of killers. What do you think? Our country’s so innocent… I say it’s better to get along with Russia than not.”