President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has suffered three self-inflicted wounds as a result of his decision to demolish the crosses at the site of the Kuropaty mass graves: he has lost whatever sympathy he had among the population, he has likely made it impossible for any Western leader to receive him, and he has called attention to splits within his own regime.
That Mr. Lukashenka lost whatever sympathy and support he had among Belarusians is no surprise: Not only did he by his actions at Kuropaty on April 4 dishonor their history, but he insulted their intense national commitment to honoring the dead and especially those who died for the cause of Belarus.
On April 10, a group of Belarusians took to Mr. Lukashenka’s office to hand over a petition protesting what he did. It declared that by his actions at Kuropaty, the Belarusian president had effectively “gone to war against the Belarusian people” (https://belsat.eu/ru/news/zashhitniki-kuropat-trebuyut-ot-lukashenko-vernut-kresty-na-mesto/).
The Belarusian leader may not care about that: his track record of abusing and ignoring his own population is legendary. But he will care very much about the second consequence of his actions. It is almost inconceivable in the wake of what he did at Kuropaty that any Western leader will now be willing to host him in his or her capital.
Belarusian commentator put it both classically and bluntly: By his tearing down of the crosses at Kuropaty, “a cross has been put on possible Lukashenka visits to NATO neighbors.” That deprives him of one of his major cards in dealing with Russia and thus leaves him in a significantly weakened position internationally.
But it is the third self-inflicted “wound” that probably disturbs Mr. Lukashenka the most because it points to more troubles ahead for his regime and his personal survival in office. According to analysts at Belarus in Focus, the decision to destroy the crosses at Kuropaty highlights not only the failure of Mr. Lukashenka to think about the consequences of his actions but also about something else.
And that is this: it highlights the internal disagreements within his regime, disagreements that may now emerge more publicly and more consequentially given Mr. Lukashenka’s rash action at Kuropaty (belarusinfocus.info/by/security-issues/konflikt-vokrug-kuropat-prodemonstriroval-vnutrennie-raskoly-vo-vlasti reposted at thinktanks.by/publication/ 2019/04/10/konflikt-vokrug-kuropat-prodemonstriroval-vnutrennie-raskoly-vo-vlasti.html).
The negative reaction of Belarusian civil society to the Kuropaty outrage was completely predictable, but the equally negative reaction of “a number of political officials, including those who had been considered close to Lukashenka as well as representatives of businesses affiliated with the government” shows that the country has entered an entire new political era.
How much these will matter remains to be seen, but at the very least, as the journal’s analysts observe, they already show that “the Belarusian regime is far from as monolithic as it is customary to think.” And that is something Belarusians in the government and out as well as Russia and the West are now going to factor into their calculations.
Then, only nine days after provoking near universal anger among Belarusians and revulsion in Western capitals by having his forces tear down 70 crosses at the site of the Kuropaty mass graves near Minsk, Mr. Lukashenka compounded his offense by having them destroy 50 more on April 13.
For details on this latest action, see svaboda.org/a/29878781.html, reform.by/blagoustrojstvo-prodolzhaetsja-v-kuropatah-snova-snosjat-kresty/ and belta.by/society/view/bolee-100-dobrovoltsev-prinjali-uchastie-v-subbotnike-po-blagoustrojstvu-kuropat-343874-2019/.
This time the actions were taken by about 100 participants in a Soviet-style Saturday work session, and leaders announced that they were planting trees in place of the metal crosses. But their actions provoked a counter-demonstration by Belarusians outraged by this attack on religion and national identity and negative commentaries by Catholic and Orthodox leaders.
Archbishop Tadeusz Kondrusevich, the head of the Catholic Church of Belarus, was particularly outspoken (catholic.by/3/news/belarus/9673-ne-znostse-kryzho-zvarot-artsybiskupa-tadevusha-kandrusevicha-suvyazi-z-novym-znosam-kryzho-u-kurapatakh, charter97.org/ru/news/2019/ 4/13/330446/ and belaruspartisan.by/politic/460591/).
Noting that not 10 days had passed since the Belarusian authorities had dishonored the chief symbol of Christianity, the archbishop sharply criticized this repetition, arguing that the destruction and removal of the crosses has inflicted “a deep wound on the heart of the believer.” He said that they and all the Christians in Belarus were now “a voice crying in the wilderness.”
The Belarusian Orthodox Church did not issue an official statement, but its press secretary, Sergey Lepin, on his LiveJournal page said that he had thought the problems were in the past after the days since the original destruction of crosses occurred on April 4. But that has turned out to be not the case (serge-le.livejournal.com/475920.html and belsat.eu/ru/news/press-sekretar-bpts-uchastnikam-navedeniya-poryadka-v-kuropatah-nuzhno-pokayatsya/).
Mr. Lepin said he wasn’t authorized to make any general comments but added that if among those who were involved in the destruction of crosses this time around there were any Orthodox, such people should speak with their spiritual advisors and determine whether they need to repent their actions.