Moscow’s moves to seize control of the surface of the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov have attracted concern not only in Ukraine but in the capitals of Ukraine’s supporters. However, Russia’s illegal moves to control a large part of the Ukrainian shelf not only there but in the Black Sea have not – even though they may prove more fateful.
After Vladimir Putin’s Anschluss of Crimea, Moscow took control of approximately two-thirds of Ukraine’s continental shelf, according to the Ukrainian government’s State Service for Geology and Natural Resources. Now, it is moving to take control of even more (qha.com.ua/ru/ekonomika/rf-nezakonno-kontroliruet-bolshuyu-chast-ukrainskogo-shelfa-chernogo-i-azovskogo-morei/194754/ and ukranews.com/news/578796-gosgeologyy-rasskazaly-o-utverzhdennykh-zapasakh-gaza-na-podkontrolnykh-ukrayne-uchastkakh).
Like the occupation, the continuing war in the Donbas and earlier seizures of portions of Ukraine’s continental shelf, these latest moves are completely illegal and threaten to take away from Ukraine approximately 37 billion cubic meters of natural gas over all and about 10 billion in the Sea of Azov alone.
As a result of Russian aggression, the area of the shelf Ukraine controls has contracted by more than 60 percent, from 130,000 square kilometers to about 40,000. If Russia seizes more of the shelf, Kyiv will lose access to an important source of energy and potential export earnings – clearly, goals of Moscow (qha.com.ua/ru/ekonomika/v-rf-annulirovali-ukrainskie-litsenzii-na-polzovanie-nedrami-krima/194710/).
Consequently, any strategy to defend Ukraine’s rights in the Sea of Azov must take into account not only Russian aggression on the surface of that body of water but also Moscow’s illegal seizure of the seabed below.