Although NATO had expressed its support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations back on November 7, 2017, it was not given any official status. Then, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg did not answer the question about whether Ukraine is included on the list of so-called “aspiring nations,” which then included only Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Georgia; he stressed that reforms are a priority for NATO-Ukrainian cooperation. Up until March 9, NATO’s site stated that “since 2010, Ukraine has not been formally pursuing membership.”
This has now changed, after a working visit of the Ukrainian delegation to Brussels.
Ukraine is now on the list of aspiring countries. As well, the section on NATO-Ukraine relations was updated: it now includes a reference to a bill adopted by the Ukrainian Parliament on June 8, 2017, which set NATO membership as Ukraine’s foreign policy objective.
Commenting on NATO’s decision to recognize Ukraine’s aspirant member status, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration Ivanna Klympush Tsintsadze said: “There’s a long path between recognizing ambitions and membership. It consists of, first of all, internal work, but we can sucessfully walk this path if we will purposefully change the country according to NATO’s democratic, social, economic, political and of course, military principles and approaches.”
Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko has named Ukraine’s next ambition: a Membership Action Plan, NATO’s program of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the alliance. Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia have such a plan.
Meanwhile, a forum titled “Revive the Euro-Atlantic Integration Process” is being held in Brussels with the participation of Ms. Klympush-Tsintsadze; the special representative of the U.S. for Ukraine negotiations, Kurt Volker; Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili; and the deputy director-general for Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations at the European Commission, Katarina Mathernova.
Long, complicated history of relations
Ukraine became the first country of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to enter NATO’s Partnership for Peace program in February 1994, and official cooperation began one year later. In 1997, the first official NATO Information and Documentation Center opened in Kyiv and a NATO-Ukraine Commission was established.
But in 2002, Ukraine-NATO relations soured as leaked tapes appeared to reveal that Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, apart from ordering the kidnapping of Ukrainian journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, arranged the transfer of the sophisticated Ukrainian Kolchuga system to Iraq. The scandal unfolded amid a political crisis and protests against Mr. Kuchma’s authoritarian rule in Ukraine. The Ukraine-NATO Action Plan adopted in 2002, as well as Mr. Kuchma’s declaration that Ukraine wanted to join NATO and the sending of Ukrainian troops to Iraq in 2003 could not mend relations.
Nevertheless, in 2003 the Ukrainian Parliament adopted a law on “The Foundations of National Security,” in which NATO integration and NATO membership were – much like in today’s law – proclaimed a key goal of foreign policy. The initiative didn’t last long. As soon as Poland became an EU member state, it appealed to Brussels insisting that the European Union offer Ukraine membership prospects, which the European Commission declined with a mere partnership offer. The irritated Mr. Kuchma ordered that NATO membership be crossed off the list of Ukraine’s strategic goals in 2004.
After the Orange Revolution in 2004 in which Mr. Kuchma was replaced by Viktor Yushchenko, expectations were high for a pro-EU and pro-NATO course. But internal quibbles and an absence of unilateral support for NATO within Ukraine’s population hampered the plans. In 2008, the second Yulia Tymoshenko Cabinet’s proposal for Ukraine to join NATO’s Membership Action Plan was met with internal opposition, and despite U.S. and Polish support at the 2008 Bucharest summit, the Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia were not approved, having faced opposition by France, Germany and Italy. However, a declaration was adopted stating that the “future of both countries [Ukraine and Georgia – ed] was connected with the alliance.”
After Viktor Yanukovych came to power in 2010, Ukraine’s NATO aspirations were curbed as a bill was passed that excluded the goal of “integration into Euro-Atlantic security and NATO membership” from the country’s national security strategy. The law precluded Ukraine’s membership in any military bloc, but allowed for cooperation with alliances such as NATO.
In December 2014, 10 months after Mr. Yanukovych fled following the Euro-Maidan revolution, after which Russia occupied Crimea and orchestrated a war in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine renounced this non-aligned status. The step was condemned by Russia. President Poroshenko vowed to hold a referendum on joining NATO, and Ukraine signaled its hopes for a major non-NATO ally status with the United States. In 2017, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a bill restoring the country’s course towards NATO membership.
Starting from 2015, military exercises took place between NATO members and Ukraine, including Operation Fearless Guardian, Exercise Sea Breeze, Saber Guardian/Rapid Trident and Safe Skies. In September 2015, NATO launched five trust funds for 5.4 million euros for the Ukrainian army. In March 2016, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker stated that it would take at least 20 to 25 years for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.
Public support for NATO membership
The support of Ukrainians for joining NATO soared following the Russian aggression against the country that started after the Euro-Maidan. According to polls by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund, until February 2014, it hovered around 15 percent and most Ukrainians were in favor of a non-aligned status for Ukraine, after which it soared to 33 percent and is now at its historic maximum. Support for a military alliance with Russia is at a historic low. Ukraine’s NATO membership has the most supporters in Ukraine’s western regions, while the south, east, and the Donbas are more in favor of a neutral status. If a referendum on joining NATO would be held, 69 percent of those who would vote would choose “yes,” according to the latest poll of this fund from July 2017.
Russian opposition
The Russian president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has already responded to Ukraine’s decision towards NATO integration, stating that Moscow traditionally views NATO expansion towards Russian borders with distrust and concern. “We believe that this threatens our safety and the balance of power in the Eurasian region. Of course, the Russian side takes all necessary measures to counterbalance the situation and protect its own interests and safety,” he said.
In the past, Russia has spoken out strongly against Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. In 2008 Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia may target its missiles at Ukraine if its neighbor joins NATO and accepts the deployment of a U.S. missile defense shield. Later, as prime minister, Mr. Putin reportedly declared at a NATO-Russia summit in 2008 that if Ukraine joined NATO, Russia could annex the Ukrainian East and Crimea.
In an interview with the BBC in November 2014, Mr. Peskov demanded a “100 percent guarantee nobody would think about Ukraine joining NATO” – an appeal that was rejected two days later by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, who said that would violate Ukraine’s sovereignty.
What Ukraine can offer NATO
According to the Institute of World Policy, a Ukrainian think tank, Ukraine’s added value for the Euro-Atlantic security network consists of its experience in hybrid warfare, counter-propaganda, rapid military modernization and the impact of civil resilience, intelligence on the eastern border and the Black Sea region, and energy security resources.