Lately, world headlines have focused on Iran and Yemen, while the war – yes, it is a war – in Ukraine has become old news. This comes at a time that fighting continues in Ukraine’s east, despite the supposed ceasefire, and as knowledgeable observers are saying Russia is planning a spring offensive in Ukraine.
As reported by Prof. Alexander Motyl on his World Affairs blog, Andriy Parubiy, the vice-chairman of Ukraine’s Parliament and former national security adviser, stated on March 27 that there is a “high risk” of a “full-scale military operation” in the next few weeks. Gen. Wesley Clark, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, said at a March 30 briefing at the Atlantic Council that “Ukrainian forces expect [an] attack within the next 60 days. This assessment is based on geographic imperatives, the ongoing pattern of Russian activity, and an analysis of Russian actions, statements and Putin’s psychology to date.”
Noting that “In this war, Moscow has used a combination of local separatist forces, irregular volunteers, and Russian special forces and regular forces,” Gen. Clark said that since the Minsk 1 (September 2014) and Minsk 2 (February 2015) agreements, “the Kremlin-directed forces have taken additional territory” in the east of Ukraine. He cited the fact that the Ukrainian forces face a much stronger aggressor. “Ukrainians do well against the separatists and irregulars but cannot withstand direct engagement with Russian regular forces, who are heavily involved in the fighting in Ukraine’s east.” He cited the following estimates: some 9,000 Russian personnel and 30,000-35,000 separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine; some 400 tanks and 700 pieces of artillery, including rocket launchers, in that region; another 50,000 Russian military personnel located along or near Russia’s border with Ukraine; a further 50,000 Russian personnel in Crimea. These Russian forces employ very advanced weapons systems, while Ukraine largely relies on Soviet-era equipment and faces a serious overall shortage of military equipment.
What’s more, there have been even more ominous signals emanating lately from the Kremlin. For example, The Daily Mail (London) on April 2 reported this: “Vladimir Putin is planning to exploit the threat of nuclear war to force NATO out of countries bordering Russia, it has been claimed. A secret meeting between intelligence figures in Moscow and Washington reportedly revealed Putin will consider any attempt to return the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine as declaration of war and will take any necessary step – including using nuclear weapons – to retain control of the region. Notes from the meeting are also said to have revealed that Putin is planning imminent ‘destabilizing actions’ in pro-Western Baltic states in a direct challenge to NATO’s promise to defend the countries from Soviet-style Russian expansionism.”
Dr. Stephen Blank, senior fellow for Russia at the American Foreign Policy Council, underscored in a March 31 commentary on the Atlantic Council’s website that what’s at stake in Ukraine “is not just a quarrel over the fate of Ukraine,” but “a war for the future of Russia, and beyond that for the long-term future of European and Eurasian security.” He cautioned that, in hiding behind “rhetoric that masks a deeper inaction or complacency about Russia and Ukraine, we are only storing up for ourselves and future generations a larger continental crisis.”
In his briefing at the Atlantic Council, Gen. Clark said the Obama administration should immediately do two things to help Ukraine: share intelligence with Ukraine so the Ukrainians can have “firm warning of a renewed Russian offensive”; and prepare an aid package, including lethal assistance that has already been authorized by Congress, deploy it at a staging base, and warn Mr. Putin that “when we first get the indications that you are coming again we will send assistance, including lethal assistance, to Ukraine.” He explained that, if the administration is not yet prepared to provide the lethal weapons it has been authorized to send to Ukraine by the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014, it could at least have the package ready, “promise it, promote it, explain it, and use it in deterrence.”
In short, while desiring peace, we should prepare for war. If the U.S. desires peace in Ukraine and beyond, President Barack Obama must heed the advice of numerous officials in his own administration who support arming Ukraine. Further delay only guarantees further Russian aggression.