Presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelensky has said that the cessation of shelling along the so-called line of demarcation would be one of his main objectives as Ukraine’s head of state. The desire to stop the shelling and to save the lives of fellow citizens is a laudable goal. But it is not up to us to stop the shooting. It is up to Vladimir Putin.
I’d like to point out a few simple truths to Mr. Zelensky, which he must know even without me. In 2014 it was not Ukraine that attacked Russia, but Russia that attacked Ukraine. It was not Ukraine that sent saboteurs to Russia, but Russia that sent them to Ukraine. There are no Ukrainian troops on Russian soil, but Russian troops and the Kremlin’s mercenaries are occupying our lands. And, of course, they are continuing to maintain heightened tensions with the Ukrainian army along the entire line of demarcation, because without these tensions the occupation of the Donbas would immediately lose all meaning. Can Mr. Zelensky come to an agreement with Mr. Putin to stop this shelling? No, he cannot. Just as President Petro Poroshenko cannot. Nor anyone else.
Can Mr. Putin stop shooting and killing Ukrainians? Of course he can. But to do that he doesn’t need any agreement with anyone — not with Mr. Zelensky, not President Poroshenko, not even with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He simply has to want to do it.
It is obvious that the Russian president will not want to do so today. The shelling and killing is Moscow’s important contribution to the election campaign in our country because it proves that the current government cannot stop the war even though it had promised to do so. If Mr. Zelensky wins, will Mr. Putin want to stop the shelling? He probably will, and he will not need to negotiate with Mr. Zelensky.
Furthermore, I think that the decision on the possible end to the shelling has already been approved. Russians and their hirelings will not shoot – at least not before the parliamentary elections in Ukraine. They will want to demonstrate that the “peace party” in Ukraine has replaced the “war party,” and they will not create obstacles to victory for this collective “peace party” during the parliamentary elections.
The main question is what will come afterwards? What will Mr. Zelensky have to sacrifice to keep the shelling from resuming and to avoid being seen by a segment of Ukrainians as a representative of the “war party”? The incorporation of occupied Donbas by Ukraine on Russian terms? The abandonment of Crimea or at least the promise not to mention the annexation of the peninsula? The rejection of European integration? This will be the sacrifice.
And does Mr. Zelensky understand – well perhaps not the showman himself but the people around him – that if we do not agree to Mr. Putin’s conditions the shelling will not cease at all or else it will inevitably start again and our soldiers will begin to die again? And that if we agree to Mr. Putin’s conditions, we can literally find ourselves in Rostov, Russia – and this is in the best-case scenario.
I understand, of course, that many of my compatriots, including politicians, are simply incapable of thinking that far ahead. But we must learn if we do not want to bring about another crisis in our country and lose more territory instead of returning what has already been torn off.
Vitaliy Portnikov is a Ukrainian editor and journalist born in Kyiv in 1967. Since 1989, he has been working as an analyst of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, specializing in post-Soviet countries, and cooperating with the Russian and Ukrainian services of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
The article above is reprinted from Euromaidan Press, where it appeared on April 16 in an English translation by Anna Mostovych. It was originally published in Ukrainian by Espreso TV on April 8.