As the unexpected white-red-white Belarusian revolution continues, and both the stakes and risks are raised, international reaction has been growing accordingly.
The scale of the mass country-wide demonstrations, followed by strikes, to protest against the rigging of the presidential election on August 9 caught everyone by surprise. The ruthlessness and cruelty of the Lukashenka regime in trying to crush them, even more so.
No one had foreseen such rapid and dramatic developments. Belarus was generally regarded as a politically docile country without an effective opposition to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, and without leaders capable of challenging him.
For this election, new candidates not connected with the traditional, and largely marginalized, opposition did indeed emerge. But Mr. Lukashenka either imprisoned them on trumped-up charges, did not allow them to register as candidates, or tried to besmirch them as Russian-backed.
For this reason, independent international observers, including from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), did not bother to try to monitor the fairness of the election. Although the usual relatively low-key protests were expected afterwards from those crying foul, Mr. Lukashenka was expected to get his own way yet again and remain in power for a 27th year and beyond.
Although on this occasion it seemed evident enough that the majority of the voters had cast their vote for Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who decided to run after her husband, Syarhey Tsikhanouski, was detained by Belarusian authorities on spurious charges, Mr. Lukashenka did not hesitate to claim a ludicrous 80 percent of the votes.
But, as we saw, the people of Belarus evidently felt that this contemptuous act was the final straw, that enough was enough. Throughout the country tens of thousands of people spontaneously poured out onto the streets and squares of the country in protest.
There was no identifiable leadership urging them on or giving instructions. And from the very first moment, for the protesters, the red-white-red national Belarusian flag that Mr. Lukashenka had banned replaced the green and red version from the Soviet era that Mr. Lukashenka made the state’s colors.
The response from the Lukashenka regime: brutality on a level not seen in Europe in recent memory and around 7,000 people arrested. Much of the violence directed at the population was indiscriminate and barbarous.
This terror both shocked and frightened the protesters, but at the same time outraged and galvanized them. Strikes and “Freedom Marches” involving hundreds of thousands of people followed. Mr. Lukashenka remained intransigent, even when jeered by workers he considered loyal to him, but his stormtroopers were held back.
He has continued to refuse to make any concessions, let alone go away, and has threatened to “restore order” by force. He has repeatedly invoked the prospect of a Russian intervention to save him.
So now we have a tense situation filled with uncertainty as to how it will all end. Although many international newspapers have been concluding that it’s “game over” for Mr. Lukashenka, his insistence that he will not budge, his menacing tone and the critical Putin factor indicate that this is by no means a certainty at this stage.
Will even more blood be spilled? Can the leaders of the democratic opposition sustain the peaceful revolt? How will Russia respond to this embarrassing Belarusian revolt on its doorstep? How will the democratic world respond?
During the last week or so we received some of the preliminary answers. Not surprisingly, the first leaders to greet Mr. Lukashenka on his “victory” were those of China, Russia and its Central Asian associates, Armenia, Venezuela, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The first to express to concern about the violence and doubts about the fairness of the election were Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Sweden, Germany, and France.
Since then, the European Parliament and the European Union have taken a position. They have not recognized the results of the election and will be applying sanctions against those considered responsible for the rigging of the election and the brutality that followed it.
With Mr. Lukashenka appealing for support to Moscow, all eyes have been on President Vladimir Putin. But Moscow, either caught by surprise or planning its own scenario, hesitated before clarifying its position. In the meantime, both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron called Mr. Putin to express their concern about the situation and warn him of the consequences of a Russian intervention.
Mr. Putin and his spokespersons have replied officially that any external intervention in Belarus’ affairs is impermissible. But Russian representatives have also been stressing that they consider Belarus and Russia to be a union-state of two countries, hence fudging the distinction of who is external and who is internal.
The most candid response has come from Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov. In an interview with the Rossiya TV channel, part of which was published on the website of the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry on August 19, he said: “No one hides the fact that it is about geopolitics, about the fight for the post-Soviet space. We have seen this fight earlier after the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The last example, of course, is Ukraine. What we are hearing now from European capitals, especially from the Baltic states, as well as from Poland, the European Parliament is not about Lukashenka, human rights and democracy. It is all about geopolitics, about the very rules that our Western partners want to impose into everyday life on our continent and other parts of the world.”
Responding to offers from the EU and the Baltic states to act as mediators in promoting political dialogue in Belarus, he added: “Do you remember that this ‘either-or’ logic was used by many officials of the EU member states during the Maidans in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014. When they are talking about mediation now, we hear proposals from Lithuania and Poland, we hear someone saying that the OSCE should act as a mediator.”
Déjà vu and no surprises. The following day President Macron reiterated that he agreed with Chancellor Merkel that the European Union should stand by protesters in Belarus. He added that that the Belarusian people must find a solution themselves, but that the EU stands ready to help.
In this situation of anxiety, the implicit battle lines over Belarus have been drawn. Ukraine has aligned itself with its Western partners. It has passed its first test as to the coherence of the newly formed political association – the Lublin Triangle – in which its partners are Lithuania and Poland.
And Ukraine has also positioned itself with Germany and France, the two representatives of the European Union who are also participants along with Ukraine and Russia in the Normandy process for finding a peaceful resolution to the Russian war on the Donbas.