KYIV – “What’s the mood in Kyiv these days?” That was the question posed to me recently. So, here are few impressions and notes on what I’m observing in this strange period, full of contradictions and ambiguous signs, which has characterized the supposed real beginning of summer.
Yes, the weather has indeed been strange and unpredictable, with unseasonal cold, wet or simply cloudy days interspersed with sunny, warm ones. And that is pretty much what the political climate here, both domestic and external, has been.
Let’s begin at the level of the ordinary citizen, the taxi diver, waitress, factory worker, student or pensioner. What is on their minds these days? Elections? Russia’s aggression?
Well, on the surface, elections are not a priority concern, as few seem to think that in the present set up in Ukraine they will result in genuine change and improvement. Many fear that things might simply perpetuate the status quo or even be worse. On that front, there’s a general sense of frustration with the state of affairs, especially at the top and in the way the country is run. There’s cynicism, quite widespread resignation and apathy, despite whatever anger or hope lurk beneath it.
What is of direct concern, not surprisingly, is the cost of living, low wages and pensions, rising prices and tariffs on household utilities. And because of the potential these grassroots concerns offer for exploitation by crafty or streetwise, if not particularly sophisticated, populist politicians, this is transformed into the stuff of politics. Thus, we see the Ukrainian government still looking for ways out of honoring agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise the price of gas for households to equal the higher price for industry, which is one of the key requirements for receiving a new tranche from the IMF.
You would think that the war waged in eastern Ukraine by Russia behind the shield of so-called “separatists” and the casualties and damage it continues to inflict should be atop the list of concern. For some, it undoubtedly is, but it seems that for the majority, unless their sons are involved and are in danger, the business of defending the country is left to genuine patriots, whether volunteers or contracted soldiers. Tears are shed for the fallen, but life in the capital’s cafes, bars and nightclubs goes on as if the war and its daily destruction of Ukrainian lives and assets is not really happening.
The younger generation – not only students, but young professionals and better-educated workers – exposed through social media, travel and education more directly to the outside world and the complexities of modern civilization, seem to have a clearer idea of what is wrong and what is missing. But here there is a strong sense of frustration of being confronted by a largely unaccommodating system that is still in many ways conservative and resistant to deep-rooted change, modern ways, transparency, merit and professionalism. The effect either galvanizes and radicalizes those who are committed to effecting change, alienates many from politics and encourages them to live for the day and simply make the best of it (grab what you can – as per the oligarchic ethos), or encourages them to get out and seek brighter futures elsewhere. Hence the brain drain and the continuing hemorrhaging of Ukraine’s most skilled and enterprising labor force.
Yes, there are those who stay and do reasonably well – say in Ukraine’s flourishing young IT industry, or devote themselves to civic activism in numerous NGOS that are a hallmark of Ukraine’s vibrant, though not necessarily yet fully effective, civil society. And, for the poorer ones, especially migrants to the capital, or the disenfranchised and uprooted internally displaced persons, life remains tough, unfair and often demeaning. Understandably, increased crime, insecurity, drunkenness, prostitution, begging and vagrancy are the other side to the semblance of normalcy that the café terraces in the center of Kyiv suggest.
In such conditions, with it being no secret that for all the emphasis on democratic transformation and modernization, the country still continues to be run by a small group of self-absorbed tycoons, business interests, and a shady oligarcho-political cartel.
How then to keep interest and hopes raised, promote patriotism, national pride, a sense of belonging and inclusiveness – the stuff on which healthy democratic societies are based? And how to do this when at home there is still such a mess and so much uncertainty, and especially when a war against Ukraine is being waged, not only on the battlefield but through disinformation, fake news and provocations? And all this comes at a time when many of our external friends and supporters seem to be tiring of us because of the remaining gap between commitments and deeds.
On the level of the political class – it does not deserve to be described as the “elite” – these are trying days during which the battle (linked with the forthcoming elections) for influence, resources and positioning has been intensifying. And this has been happening against the backdrop of very strong pressure from Ukraine’s creditors and supporters in the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union and others linking further financial assistance to delivery in the areas of reform and curbing corruption.
For the president and the government it has been essential to ensure a further, delayed, tranche of close to $2 billion (U.S.) and additional support from the EU, the World Bank, etc. President Poroshenko, for all his eloquence and charm abroad, has shown signs of being irked by this conditionality, which impacts directly on his own dual role as president and therefore guarantor of the Constitution and of the victories supposedly won by the Revolution of Dignity, but also as a businessman and oligarch, de facto balancing the interests and influences of his fellow financial powermongers.
Rather reluctantly, as was so apparent, the presidential coalition in the Verkhovna Rada recently appeared to give way on the key issue of the establishment of an independent anti-corruption court. Even so, at the last minute changes were introduced that would undo the impact of this decision and this has undermined confidence both internally and domestically. Still more recently, this coalition has remained divided on the long-overdue replacement of the members of the Central Electoral Commission dating, unbelievably, from the era of Viktor Yanukovych. And, with elections approaching, the critical question of electoral reform to open up the system keeps being postponed, presumably to be added to parliament’s agenda surreptitiously at the last minute in a form acceptable to the power mongers.
Briefly, about the elections. The presidential ones have to be held by March 2019 and the parliamentary ones by the following October. Opinion polls have consistently been showing the old political veteran Yulia Tymoshenko in the lead, and President Poroshenko, embarrassingly, trailing considerably behind. Other contenders include representatives associated with the discredited former Party of Regions, popular singers and actors apparently supported by undeclared financial forces, the maverick radical Oleh Liashko, and the former Minister of Defense Anatolii Hrytsenko.
The mud-slinging and underhanded campaigns of denigrating political opponents has already begun. Ms. Tymoshenko in recent days, for example, has been at pains to fend off accusations that she is a secret ally of Vladimir Putin and will sell out Ukraine.
But the average man and woman on the street watching all this are not inspired. Will the system and the country change even if Mr. Poroshenko, who had represented the hopes of so many as the best of what was available, is replaced, or will the inertia of the conservative vested interests and doing things as we used to prevail so that we end up with more of the same, with perhaps different names in the key positions? Many say better stick with the devil we know rather than risk at this challenging time to elect someone else to the helm. Supporters of Ms. Tymoshenko, even those not enamored of her, see her as the only realistic hope at this stage to begin dismantling the entrenched oligarchic and self-serving structures, to thereby open up the system and pave the way for other reform-minded and capable patriots to take over.
Which leaves the external aspect. In this regard, these have busy, intensive and productive days. Pressure from the IMF, the World Bank and the EU has been having an impact. Conditionality from them remains an important driving force, if not the key one, behind the reform process. The EU has just agreed to grant Ukraine a further 1 billion euros of macro-financial assistance, but has insisted on substantial progress in reform.
On July 11 in Brussels the latest EU-Ukraine summit was held. EU leaders recognized “significant progress” in Ukrainian reforms, “notably in the areas of health and pensions, and good progress on structural reforms in the field of decentralization and public administration, as well as in public procurement and environmental reforms.” They also welcomed “the adoption of the law on privatization and efforts for improved governance and transparency of state-owned enterprises, and progress made on the law on national security.”
They stressed, however, that they want to see an acceleration of the pace of reform and particularly the battle against corruption. Importantly, the EU leaders acknowledged the European aspirations of Ukraine and welcomed its European choice, as stated in the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
While efforts continue to ensure the reforms in Parliament needed for the next tranche from the IMF, attention has also been focused on the NATO summit on June 11-13, and the forthcoming meeting on July 16 between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. There was general nervousness that Ukraine might be used as a bargaining chip in new geopolitical deals between Messrs. Trump and Putin. But the American president’s preliminary statements at the NATO summit strongly opposing the controversial Russo-German Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline with its negative implications for Ukraine and Europe generally temporarily settled some nerves. Stay tuned.
Bohdan Nahaylo, journalist, veteran Ukraine watcher and former U.N. official, is currently based in Kyiv.