Syria, Ukrainian journalist Yurii Rudenia says, “is the alternative history of Ukraine,” of what would have happened had Viktor Yanukovych crushed the Maidan early on, just as “Ukraine is an alternative history of Syria,” of what might have occurred had Bashar al-Assad “not unleashed terror” against his own people.
The consequences in the latter case might have been that Mr. Assad “would have lost power,” and that Syria might “have lost part of its territory,” but the outcome would not have been “the catastrophe that is taking place before our eyes.” This is “a history lesson on a grand scale” (espreso.tv/blogs/2015/10/06/syryya_eto_alternatyvnaya_ystoryya_ukrayny).
Bashar al-Assad “is a Yanukovych” who was not afraid to act and did so forcefully. “When protest demonstrations were only beginning, he gave the order to open fire,” Mr. Rudenia writes. The result is a civil war with more than 100,000 dead. Had Mr. Yanukovych acted the same way, the losses in Ukraine would have been even larger.
Moreover, the journalist says, “no one would have stopped Russia’s invasion,” and as a result, Ukraine would have suffered “at one and the same time,” a civil war, an occupation, and parts of the country “fighting among each other.”
“Syria’s Alawites are our Donetsk residents,” Mr. Rudenia continues. “The other Shiites are the Russian-speaking separatists. The Sunnis are the main mass of Ukrainian citizens. And the Kurds are the Crimean Tatars.” Just imagine, he says, what would have happened had Mr. Yanukovych started down this road: “We were one step from it.”