2018 was not an easy year for Ukraine. The war in the east of the country is on for the fifth year, Crimea’s annexed status did not change, dozens of Ukrainian political prisoners are held in Russian jails, and an unprecedented escalation happened in the Azov Sea. The year is also the last one in President Petro Poroshenko’s current term of office (he was elected in spring 2014 after the Revolution of Dignity). Ukrainians question the achievements made during his term, including combatting corruption, judicial reform, investigations of attacks on activists – these are issues of serious concern to civil society. Nevertheless, 2018 brought a lot of positive changes in the country. What were Ukraine’s biggest wins in 2018? The Ukraine Crisis Media Center takes a look back.
The Church win: Autocephalous Church established
For the first time in 300 years Ukraine got the possibility to establish a Church independent of Russia. Thanks to Constantinople’s support, on December 15, 2018, a Unification Council was held in Kyiv and the leader of the new unified Orthodox Church of Ukraine was elected. He is the Metropolitan Epifaniy of Pereyaslav-Khmelnytskyi and Bila Tserkva. On January 6, the new Church’s primate, together with the Ukrainian president, flew to Istanbul, where Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew granted him the Tomos of autocephaly.
The diplomatic win: Russia remains sanctioned
One of the areas in the international arena where Ukraine may claim an undoubted win is the Council of Europe – the organization uniting all states of continental Europe with the exception of the Vatican and Belarus.
Despite the pressure and blackmail of the Russian Federation, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) kept in force the sanctions it had earlier imposed on Russia. In October 2018 the PACE faced a choice: to “pardon” Russia for the violations in order to have the Russians back in Strasbourg already in January 2019 or to ignore the pressure and leave Moscow under sanctions. PACE voted for the second option.
In January, during the next session of PACE, Russia will not be able to return without sanctions. Moreover, for the first time ever PACE openly spoke of considering the possibility of having the Russian Federation excluded from the Council of Europe.
Worth mentioning are also the European Union sanctions against the Russian Federation. 2018 might have well become the turning point, one not in Ukraine’s favor, as the question of whether to keep the “economic block” of restrictive measures needed to be unanimously approved every six months. In 2018 the sanctions were preserved.
The economic wins: Trade with the EU, Naftogaz vs Gazprom,
Cooperation with IMF
The European market has finally become the main destination for Ukrainian export. Over 10 months of 2018, the share of Ukrainian goods exported to the European Union increased making up 42.4 percent of Ukraine’s total exports. Ukraine’s export to the EU grew 16.1 percent more intensely compared to the last year.
So Ukraine’s dependency on the Russian market will soon fade. The share of the Russian Federation in Ukraine’s export currently amounts to only 7.8 percent. Although formally Russia remains Ukraine’s key trade partner, Poland is poised to overtake that position. In 2018 Ukraine exported goods worth $3 billion and $2.7 billion (U.S.), respectively, to the aforementioned countries.
The ruling of the Stockholm Arbitration Court in the Naftogaz case was another economic win for Ukraine. The three-and-a-half-year-long dispute with Russia’s Gazprom resulted in $2.56 billion (U.S.) to be paid to Naftogaz. Throughout 2018 Naftogaz was in trying to have Gazprom’s assets arrested in the courts. As of December 19, Naftogaz received USD $2.093 billion from Gazprom out of the total $2.689 billion that the Russian company owed.
On December 18, 2018, following a year-and-a-half-long break, the International Monetary Fund decided to grant Ukraine a tranche of $1.4 billion (U.S.) in a new stand-by cooperation program. The program is smaller by both volume of aid and timeframe compared to the previous one – the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The stand-by program comprises almost $4 billion to be disbursed to Ukraine over the next four years. In contrast to the EFF, based on which Ukraine was getting assistance in 2015-2017, the new stand-by arrangement is provided to countries with an economy that is stable but requires support to solve particular problems.
The military win: Weapons and NATO
In 2018 the United States started supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine. In addition to Javelin anti-tank missile systems, the U.S. sent two Island-class patrol boats to Ukraine. The U.S. Congress expanded the defense support program for Ukraine.
Relations with NATO also featured important changes. Despite Hungary blocking a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission at the ministers’ and heads of state level throughout 2018, Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic track in 2018 had benefits that far outweighed the drawbacks.
In autumn 2018 the Verkhovna Rada started the procedure to introduce changes to the Constitution of Ukraine stating that membership in the NATO is the country’s undisputed goal.
In the spring, NATO finally recognized Ukraine’s status as an aspirant country by announcing it on its website and later re-confirming it during the NATO summit. The year came to a close with the delivery of NATO-supplied military equipment from Brussels aboard the presidential plane.
In 2018 Ukraine also approved a brand new Ukraine-NATO Annual National Program, which was compiled based on the Membership Action Plan.
The cultural win: Ukrainian Institute established
2018 saw a strategic development in the cultural area: the Ukrainian Institute was established under the Foreign Affairs Ministry of Ukraine. Similarly to Germany’s Goethe-Institut and France’s Institut Francais, the institution will represent contemporary Ukraine and its culture abroad.
The Ukrainian Institute aims to support Ukrainian cultural institutions and artists, and to represent their work abroad. The institute also seeks to improve ties with foreign cultural institutions in order to reinforce the international dimension of contemporary Ukrainian culture.
A total of 90 million hrv (approximately $3.3 million U.S.) was disbursed from the 2019 state budget to finance the institution. One third of the sum will be spent to finance the Year of Ukrainian Culture in Austria, which foresees the presentation of 50 events and projects in five Austrian cities. It is the institute’s flagship project in 2019.